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Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability Assessment. by Nazim Ali Senior Research Fellow. Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan. Vulnerability.

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Vulnerability Assessment

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  1. Vulnerability Assessment by Nazim Ali Senior Research Fellow Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad, Pakistan

  2. Vulnerability • “Vulnerability defines the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system. It depends not only on a system’s sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions’ (Watson et al., 1996).” • Vulnerability can not be attributed to only climatic factors as social and economic factors also play important role in determine the status of nutrition security of individual

  3. Types of Vulnerability • Social Vulnerability • Population Growth, Poor Health, Gender Discrimination • Economic Vulnerability • Economic Stability, Trade, Investment, Prices, Income • Environmental Vulnerability • Loss of Land, water, production potential

  4. Probability of Being Food Insecure at Different Income Levels

  5. Probability Function for Household with Different No. of Members

  6. Cropped Area with Source of Irrigation

  7. Hypothetical Wellbeing Function

  8. Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability: V = f (Sensitivity/ State Relative to Threshhold V = f ( |dW/dX| / W/Wo) Exposure: V . Px . dX Adaptation: A = V existing – V modified

  9. Impact of Change in Temperature at Different Water Stress Levels

  10. Spatial Impact of Change in Temperature at Different Water Stress Levels

  11. Comparative Contribution of Climatic Factors in Wheat Production

  12. Yield skp = 0.0303 × CO20.546× IRRI0.393× GSL1.628 • Elasticity of Production = 2.566 • Yield slk = 0.0568 × CO20.546× IRRI0.294× GSL1.516 • Elasticity of Production = 2.355

  13. Macro Level Vulnerability Assessment

  14. Macro Level Coping Capacity

  15. Basic Linkage System • Vulnerability is more of less subjective that can not be measured by taking individual stressor this creates the need for BSL. • Basic Linkage System (BSL) : A tool for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in broader setting. • It should consider • Broader Food System (National, Regional, International) • Population • Land Cover Change • Agricultural Production • Demand and Trade • etc • Than it would be possible to view this vulnerability in holistic way.

  16. So…..What’s Next? • BSL Model for South Asia? or • Improvement in Institutional response to GEC?

  17. Thank You

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