1 / 17

Commodity Crisis: Analyzing Price Collapse in the 1980s

This presentation discusses the commodities crisis of the 1980s, examining the factors leading to the price collapse and reconsidering the crisis hypothesis through econometric analysis. The evidence includes country-specific evidence and pre-1900 evidence, highlighting the impact of China and other factors on commodity markets.

henryesmith
Download Presentation

Commodity Crisis: Analyzing Price Collapse in the 1980s

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. COMMODITIES STILL IN CRISIS?byDavid Sapsford and Stephan PfaffenzellerUniversity of LiverpoolandHarry BlochCurtin UniversityPerth, Western AustraliaPresentation for Workshop in Honour of Alf Maizels, SOAS, London 19-20th September 2008

  2. Alf Maizels: Commodity Economist • Major Contributions • Commodities in Crisis (1992) • Maizels (1987) • Maizels (1994) • Maizels, Bacon and Mavrotas (1997)

  3. ANALYTICAL APPROACH • ‘FRAMEWORK’ (1984) • Rejection of Neo-Classical Approach • Central Emphasis: Market Power • Bargaining strengths of TNCs relative to host country governments and firms • Viable Policy always firmly centre-stage • Saw theory as servant of reality rather than vice versa! • Forever conscious of the realities of the world we actually live in

  4. COMMODITIES IN CRISIS: PRICE COLLAPSE OF THE 1980s • 1980s Experience versus 1970s and 1930s • Statistical Awareness! (AER, 1968) • Time-series issues • Trend versus short-term price instabilities • Cycles of varying wave-lengths • Long versus short waves • Aggregation issues

  5. CRISIS HYPOTHESIS RECONSIDERED: SAMPLE SELECTION • Maizels (1992) – All Commodities • Maizels (1994) – Food, Tropical Beverages, Vegetable Oilseeds & Oil, Minerals Ores and Metals • Maizels, Bacon and Mavrotas (1997) – Cocoa, Coffee and Tea

  6. CRISIS HYPOTHESIS RECONSIDERED: ANALYSIS • Some Econometric Issues • Trend (and Instability) • Estimation Procedures • Post-Sample Evidence • Structural Breaks, Dummy Variables and ‘Year (n-1)’

  7. THE EVIDENCE • Interpretation • China • Other Evidence • Country-specific evidence • Pre-1900 Evidence

  8. CONCLUSION

  9. Thank you for your attention

More Related