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This research analyzes burglary investigation decision models and factors affecting solvability, with 6 Eck variables and additional variables, evaluating over 12,000 cases for reliability and productivity. Findings show insights on offenders, detection rates, forensic opportunities, and the importance of timely response and community intelligence.
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4th International Evidence Based Policing Conference Burglary Solvability Factors Gerry Donnellan
Background • Felony Investigation Decision Model – Bernard Greenberg • Burglary Investigation Decision Model – John Eck • Coupe and Griffiths, ‘Detecting Residential Burglary’, 1996
Burglary Investigation Decision Model • 6 variables • Witness present • Discovered by police • Usable fingerprints • Suspect information • Vehicle description • Response time • 12,000 cases • 85% accuracy • Limitations
Aim of Research • Evaluate the reliability of the solvability factors • Identify the most productive variables • Understand the distribution of the variables • Identify additional variables
Methodology • 400 random cases – 200 detected • 77 violent cases – 20 detected • 6 Eck variables • 48 additional variables
Findings • 323 offenders in the detected cases • 35% of cases had multiple offenders • Significant differences between detected and undetected burglaries • Significant difference presence of DNA between suspect named and suspect described the presence of CCTV delay in reporting • 61% detected cases attended within one hour • Value of property
Summary • Arrive promptly • Effective primary investigation • Maximise secondary investigation • Maximise forensic opportunities • Community intelligence • More research