The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming

1. The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming Jeffrey T. Kiehl Climate Change Research Section National Center for Atmospheric Research jtkon@ucar.edu

2. Outline • History of climate change science • How has the climate changed? • How will the climate change? • How are we involved in the change? • How to communicate information to the public?

3. History of Climate Change Science

4. Joseph Fourier • Asked: What determines the temperature of Earth? • 1824 & 1827 works noting that atmosphere keeps Earth warm

5. The Greenhouse Effect T

6. The Greenhouse Effect T

7. John Tyndall • In 1860s measured what gases absorb thermal radiation • Found that water vapor and carbon dioxide are major absorbers

8. T T The Greenhouse Effect

9. Svante Arrhenius • In 1896 noted that industrial input of carbon dioxide would build up • Calculated Earth would warm by 4 °C for a doubling of carbon dioxide

10. Dave Keeling • In 1950s to present Keeling measured the increase in carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere

11. The Keeling Curve

12. Zfacts web site

13. IPCC(2007)

14. How has the climate changed?

15. What is Changing? • Temperature (increase) • Rainfall (increased intensity) • Snow cover (decrease) • Sea ice cover (decrease) • Ocean heat (increase) • Ocean acidity (increase) • Sea Level (increase) • Glacial coverage (decrease) • Ecosystems (decrease/shifts)

16. Ammann et al. (2006)

17. Ammann et al. (2006)

18. IPCC Temperature Trends IPCC (2007)

19. IPCC (2007)

20. Nghiem et al. (2007)

21. Russell & Steffen (CU CIRES)

22. How will the climate change?

23. IPCC (2007)

24. Where we are heading Change in Temperature from Present Crowley(2001) Present Past

25. September Sea Ice Conditions • Gradual forcing results in abrupt ice transitions • From 80 to 20% extent in 10 years. • Winter maximum shows • Smaller, more gradual decreases “Abrupt” transition Observations Simulated 5-year running mean (Holland et al., 2006)

26. Chapter 11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report US Regional Temperature Increase IPCC(2007)

27. US South WestIs the current drought just the start? IPCC Distribution Multi-Model Outlook: 20th century 21st century Seager et al. 2007

28. How are we involved in the change?

29. Human Factors Contributing to Global Warming • Growth in Population • Growth in Demand for Energy • Changes in Technology • Changes in Consumption

30. US is 5% of global population, but 25% of global emissions Carbon_Emission_by_Region

31. Environment Humans

32. Leiserowitz(2004)

33. Given all of this scientific information,why has little been done to address the problem of global climate change? • How public values the environment • Ineffective communication of information • Special interests distortion of information • Reluctance of public to accept information

34. Valuing the Environment • Utilitarian value • What nature can provide for us • Intrinsic value • Inherent value in nature independent of us • Type of value determines our way of relating to the environment

35. {Religious Systems, Family Systems, Personality Structure} {Science, Education, Media, IT} {Social Constructs, Political Systems, Economic System} Beliefs Information Values Behaviors Social Norms

37. Leiserowtiz (2005)

38. How to Communicate Information to the Public?

39. Communication Challenges(How to Deliver Information) • What is the Role of Affect in Conveying the Message? • Is Information by Itself Enough? • How Can the Message be Better Delivered?

40. The Role of Affect in Conveying Information • Tendency to defend against depressing news (Negative effect) • What has been missing to date is the neglect of affect of information (Positive effect) Moser (2007)

41. Denial of threat Belief problem won’t effect me Projection of responsibility onto someone else Fatalism Wishful thinking or rationalization Refusal to change Uncertainty trap Displacement of attention to other issues Numbing (Apathy) Mechanisms to Deal with Affects Moser (2007)

42. Is Information Enough? • Existing belief that information is sufficient to change attitudes and behaviors • But information is not enough to change attitudes • Importance of: • Who is delivering the information? • How is the information delivered? • “The most important thing to know for motivating behavior is your audience’s beliefs and values” Chess & Johnson (2007)

43. Culture & Information • Issue Cultures: Social problems that become a concern for society (e.g. 9/11 & security) • Bridging Metaphors: Scientific ideas are encoded in a distinct language that need to be decoded for the public • Cultural Whirlwinds: Rapidly evolving sequences of events that create a vortex Ungar (2007)

44. Value Systems Behavior Information Transformation Scientific Observations Public Awareness Affect Laden Metaphors Narratives Theory Models

45. Without deep reflection, we have taken on the story of endings, assumed the story of extinction… We need new stories…a new narrative that would imagine another way, to learn the infinite mystery and movement at work in the world. Linda Hogan