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Is The US Policy on Energy Carbon Climate Really No Policy?

Is The US Policy on Energy Carbon Climate Really No Policy? . Walt Wagner November 19, 2012. Overview of Presentation. US Energy Facts Summary of Global Warming Science Scientist’s Challenges Short Term US Policies Long Term Outlooks World Challenges. Policy or Rhetoric.

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Is The US Policy on Energy Carbon Climate Really No Policy?

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  1. Is The US Policy onEnergy Carbon ClimateReally No Policy? Walt Wagner November 19, 2012

  2. Overview of Presentation • US Energy Facts • Summary of Global Warming Science • Scientist’s Challenges • Short Term US Policies • Long Term Outlooks • World Challenges

  3. Policy or Rhetoric • President Ford proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Carter proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Regan proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Bush 1 proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Clinton proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Bush 2 proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • President Obama proclaimed Policy for Energy Independence • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZXqlLl8oPA

  4. US Energy Consumption

  5. Per Capita Energy Consumption

  6. Energy Consumption

  7. How do we create Carbon Dioxide?

  8. Carbon Based Fossil Fuels • Petroleum 37% • Natural Gas 25% • Coal 21% • Total 83%

  9. Main Uses of Fuels Coal-----------------Electric Generation Natural Gas-------Electric Generation Heating Petroleum---------Transportation & Industry

  10. Not all fossil Fuels are Equally Dirty Pounds of CO2 per million BTU of Fuel Coal 210lb Petroleum 156lb Natural Gas 117lb

  11. Not all fossil Fuels are Equally Priced Cost per Million BTUs Coal $3.00/MBTU Natural Gas $3.00-5.00/MBTU Petroleum $25.00-30.00/MBTU

  12. Oil Imports Threat to security. Gas Lines of the 70s

  13. Oil Imports

  14. US Jobs or Palm Island Resorts

  15. What is US Energy Policy? • Clean Coal • Natural Gas/Fracking • Petroleum Drilling Onshore& Offshore • Nuclear • Renewable • All of the Above

  16. Global Warming Facts • 6 Gigatons of CO2 are added to Atmosphere per year mostly caused by fossil fuel combustion • Science shows how greenhouse effect works • Irrefutable temperature data show global warming • There has been and will be additional changes in climate • Changes in the climate cause at a minimum an increase in human suffering during transitions

  17. Scientist’s Challenges • Determine the facts on global warming • Appropriately disseminate the facts • This hasn’t been done effectively • Mitt Romney: • I am not a scientist myself, but my best assessment of the data is that the world is getting warmer, that human activity contributes to that warming, and that policymakers should therefore consider the risk of negative consequences. However, there remains a lack of scientific consensus on the issue— on the extent of the warming, the extent of the human contribution, and the severity of the risk — and I believe we must support continued debate and investigation within the scientific community. • Communication should be timely and as forcefully as the situation requires • http://youtu.be/aJohCpifELE

  18. Short Term Actions • Convert Coal Fired Power Plants to Gas • Increase Automobile Efficiency/Mileage

  19. EPA Defacto Policy • The EPA’s New Source Performance Standard would limit CO2 emissions from new power plants to 1,000 pounds per MW. The average coal plant emits 1,768 pounds per MW. The average gas-fired plant emits 800 to 850 pounds of CO2 per MW.

  20. Effect of EPA Requirements • The NSPS essentially requires all new power plants fueled with coal to install a carbon capture and storage system, a risk that no utility is willing to take due to the cost, the liability and questions about the technology.

  21. New EPA Emission Standards • “Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), which seeks to regulate the emission of mercury and other gasses and could force power plants to install expensive scrubbing technologies to remove the gasses from power plant emissions.” • “Coal Combustion Residuals (CCR) regulations, which controls how power plants dispose of coal ash, which can contain poisons such as arsenic, mercury and cadmium. This regulation, which has not been finalized, could empower EPA to treat coal ash as hazardous waste – allowing the government to set strict standards for how power plants operators must handle and dispose of it.”

  22. Short Term Effect on Power Plants • Shut down of many existing Coal Fired Power Plants or change fuel • Increase in number of new Gas Fired Combined Cycle Power Plants with higher thermal efficiencies • Increased focus on non carbon based energy sources • If all coal was changed to natural gas the carbon emissions on 20% of energy consumed will be reduced by over 40%

  23. Transportation • 75% of petroleum is used for Transportation • Efficiency Standards are being increased • Mandated increase to 35.5mpg by 2016 • Mandated increase to 54.5mpg by 2025 • Current actual data has average of 26mpg

  24. Implications of new mileage standards • More hybrid vehicles • Lighter and smaller vehicles • More diesel engines • More electric vehicles • More natural gas vehicles • More Efficient gasoline engines • Resistance by manufacturers and the public

  25. Short Term Outlook • Convert Coal Power Plants to Natural Gas if possible-IN PROGRESS • Make Transportation Vehicles more efficient-IN PROGRESS • Research on Renewables-PARTIALY IN PROGRESs • Decrease dependence on oil imports and increase security -IN PROGRESS • Unfortunately this only decreases growth of Carbon Emissions-Emissions that are impacting our Climate

  26. Long Term Objectives and Policies • Dramatically reduce carbon footprint • Preserve Climate • Preserve Natural Resources for future generations

  27. Non-Carbon Energy Sources • Solar Thermal • Solar Photovoltaic • Wind • Biofuels • Hydro • Tidal • Nuclear

  28. Characteristics of Electrical Energy • Capacity/Demand-Generating Machines • Energy-Storage

  29. Non Carbon and Renewable Energy Characteristics • Type Capacity Energy • Solar Daytime only? Yes • Wind No Yes • Hydro Yes ? Yes • Tidal Cyclical Yes • Biofuels Yes Yes • Nuclear Yes Yes

  30. Current Contributions of Renewables • Solar .1% • Wind .9% • Hydro 2.5% • Biomass 4.3% • Nuclear 8.5%

  31. Photovoltaic • Sample Calculation from “Without Hot Air” • Cover 5% of UK with 10% efficient panels • Energy production would be 50kwh per person • Average consumption per person is 195kwh • QED solar would provide 26% of energy needs • QED No power at night without new technology storage

  32. Wind • Sample Calculation from “Without Hot Air” • Cover 10% of UK with wind turbines • Energy production would be 20kwh per person • Average consumption per person is 195kwh • QED Wind would provide 10% of energy needs • QED Power varies with the wind

  33. Hydro • Low Hanging Fruit has been taken. • Significant increases in production will be extremely expensive • Even doubling would only increase to 5%

  34. Tidal • Very little data available • 1MW facility is being constructed in New York

  35. Nuclear This is spent fuel from the operation of a 900MW reactor for 18 months

  36. Nuclear • A 900 MW coal plant would use approximately 3,500,000 tons of coal to produce the same energy • A 900MW coal fired power plant will produce 7,500,000 tons of CO2 in the same period of time

  37. Kyger Creek Power Plant

  38. Nuclear Safety Risk • Compare loss of life risks • Car accidents……………..35,000 • Homicide………………….16,000 • Coal………………………..14,000 • Nuclear………………………...90 • Smoking………………….152,000 • Climate Change………….140,000

  39. Transportation • Biofuels-Limited to small quantities aircraft fuel • Electricity Battery • Hybrid technology is mature • Good progress on battery powered cars Tesla, Leaf • Electricity Hydrogen-Depends on infrastructure and compatibility with natural gas

  40. Financial Issues • Nuclear Energy • Utilities went bankrupt with earlier generation of plants. Financial assurances are needed for prospective enterprises. • Renewables • Historically price of oil has risen and fallen based on international politics. Renewables need to be protected from risks associated with oil prices

  41. Financial Transportation Paradox

  42. Electric can be even Cheaper

  43. Human Development

  44. World Energy Consumption

  45. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  46. Dilemmas • Deny Developing nations access to carbon based energy. • Are there too many people for the planet? • If yes, what should we do? • Brazil grows sugar cane to produce fuel for transportation while many millions die of starvation • We are all riding on the same planet. We can fix our emissions but can all the others. Greenhouse gases don’t respect borders. • You are a very integral part of the solution

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