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Potato Market Change – Retail Influences

Potato Market Change – Retail Influences. David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel. Agenda. The grocery landscape Potato category importance Potato category performance Consumer purchasing trends. Key themes in the grocery marketplace. Stability. Store Choice. Inflation.

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Potato Market Change – Retail Influences

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  1. Potato Market Change – Retail Influences David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel

  2. Agenda • The grocery landscape • Potato category importance • Potato category performance • Consumer purchasing trends

  3. Key themes in the grocery marketplace Stability Store Choice Inflation Trading Down Smaller Trips

  4. Stability

  5. Take Home Grocery Market Value2001 to 2008 saw average 7% growth and overall 58% Annual value of take home grocery (€b) +8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  6. The market declined in 2010 but has now stabilised Annual value of take home grocery (€b) +8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% +1% -6% +1% Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  7. Inflation

  8. Trended Total Grocery Price Inflation Consistency Over Heating Correction Increase Year on year like for like change in prices Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  9. Trading Down

  10. Shoppers are increasingly turning to Private Label Christmas 2011:Branded Sales: -1%Private Label: +6% 46% Private Label Share Of Grocery Market 45% 44% 43% 42% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  11. Smaller Shopping Trips

  12. Christmas 2011 vs. 2010 • 2011 = 2 more trips • 2011 = 1 fewer item • 2011 = €26 trip size, €3 less • 2011 = €100+ occasions down 13% • Clear attempt to manage how much is spent Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  13. Store Choice

  14. Multiple retailers continue to capture more of the market 2011 87% Total Sales 2006 83% Total Sales 2001 75% Total Sales Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  15. Lidl now has more shoppers than SuperValu 82% 67% 60% 58% 50% 24% Retailer Penetration Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  16. Retailer performance over the past decade – Total Grocery Market Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  17. Store numbers play a big part in market share growth 209 stores 63 new stores since 2007 131 stores 34 new 12 new 196 stores 100 stores 6 new 24 stores 1 new Source: Desk Research

  18. Agenda • The grocery landscape • Potato category importance • Potato category performance • Consumer purchasing trends

  19. From a shopper perspective we are the 8th most important category in store 100% shoppers 99% 98% 97% 97% 97% 96% 96% Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  20. 10% of all shopping trips feature potatoesThese trips contribute 20% of all sales €44 €23 Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  21. Within our competitive set we are a clear number 140% of value & 70% of volume sales €000’s KG000’s Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  22. Agenda • The grocery landscape • Potato category importance • Potato category performance • Consumer purchasing trends

  23. Potatoes vol & val sales trended over the past 5 yearsVolume decline has slowed considerably since 2008 Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  24. Potatoes growth/decline trended over the past 4 years Value currently declining faster than volume Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  25. Fresh Potato Share Within Carbohydrate Category Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  26. Competitive Carbohydrate Category SharesRice, Pasta & Pizza have gained ground Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  27. Carbohydrate category 5 year performance (06 – 11) Value Volume Price -32% -25%* -9% +6% +12%* -5% +59% +38%* +16% * Measured by kilo volume weight as a percentage +62% +45%** +115% **Measured by number of packs as a percentage Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  28. Complementary Vegetable Category Sales PerformanceGrowth in value and volume sales Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  29. Vegetable Category Value Share by TypeSome change, but no fundamental shift Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  30. Agenda • The grocery landscape • Potato category importance • Potato category performance • Consumer purchasing trends

  31. Fresh Potato Volume Sales Per Household (KG)Clear trend of consumers cutting down Potato consumption Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  32. Pack Size Share Within Total Potatoes (volume)Moving to smaller backs will have led to cutting back Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  33. Potato Carbohydrate Share By AgeResonance among younger shoppers is a key challenge Increasing share in younger age groups vital to current and future category health Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011

  34. Key themes Vital Category Drive Footfall Key to high € trips Connecting with Consumers Younger = Less Consumption Vital for Future Growth More & More Choice Changing tastes Convenience & Health

  35. david.berry@kantarworldpanel.comTel: 0860 438 090

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