Modeling Potential Terrorist Havens in the Middle East Terrain Using Fuzzy GIS

1. GIS spatial modelingMapping Potential Terrorist Havens in the Middle East Terrain Complexity using Fuzzy Introduction Suitability using MCE Model • Identifying suitable locations for high-valued resort housing vs. identifying possible remote havens for terrorists represent a classic geographic site-selection problem • Ungoverned spaces, such as coastlines, rivers and unpopulated border areas represent fertile grounds • Examine suitable locations for remote camps and operational centers for illicit groups not condoned by the local government Order Weighted Average (OWA): The technique, in addition to factor weights, order weights are used allowing for direct control over the levels of tradeoff and risk. The degree of risk is the position of the combination procedure between the minimization (AND operation) and maximization (OR operation) of areas to be considered suitable in the final result; this is also controlled by the set of order weights. In this analysis the minimum risk is taking considering the type of suitability is critical to those groups. Problem Conclusions:Project Benefits • Regional terrorist strategies in the Middle East, the analysis explored typically applies to suitable locations for remote camps and operational centers for illicit groups not condoned by the local government. • Includes insurgencies, guerrillas and smugglers as well as terrorist camp locations where training activities require a more remote location. Population Factor using Fuzzy • Visualization that provides a discussion format for military strategists in the middle east. • The model itself provides the ability for experts to argue and propose criteria modifications and evaluate the results. • GIS is a valuable approach with regard to filtering limited counterterrorism intelligence. • Regardless of the validity of the methods and the successful result, there is always an element of chance in such analyses. Suitability using MCE & OWA Technique Multi-Criteria Evaluation: The model from IDRISI Kilimanjaro decision support tools. In a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE), an attempt is made to combine a set of criteria to achieve a single composite basis for a decision according to a specific objective. MCE is a decision or a choice between alternative land allocations..(IDRISI guide) Data Improvement • It should be noted that there are several important future data improvements which will further enhance the analysis. Global landcover mapping prepared by Earth Satellite Corp. for NIMA/NASA at 30-meter resolution is nearing completion. In addition, the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mapping project will provide as high as 30-meter digital elevation data. Both datasets provide a significant improvement in spatial resolution. Data and Methodology Land Use Factor using Fuzzy Population Density: Illicit groups require supplies, but they can rely on a suitable proximity from much smaller settlements than government Landuse & Vegetation: Evergreen, deciduous and mixed forests were the most visually absorptive, closely followed by shrubland and decreasing to grassland, agricultural and barren areas. Aspect:measures within a five-by-five-kilometer area (using focal filters) the terrain texture, elevation difference and mean elevation difference. Higher slope/aspect diversity (texture) than more homogenous surface and provides greater mobility complexity and visual screening Data Data Source: Clark Labs, Clark University . Global Coverage Digital Elevation Model Global Population Density 2002 Global Land Use landscan By Ahmad BinTouq Advanced Topics in GIS Professor Ron Eastman