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The Largest Act of Environmental Warfare in History

The Largest Act of Environmental Warfare in History. Steven I. Dutch Natural and Applied Sciences University of Wisconsin-Green Bay Green Bay, WI 54311-7001. Something New?. Topography of China. Loess in China. Huang He Diversions 400 BC - Present. Scale of Huang He Diversions. 1890.

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The Largest Act of Environmental Warfare in History

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  1. The Largest Act of Environmental Warfare in History Steven I. Dutch Natural and Applied Sciences University of Wisconsin-Green Bay Green Bay, WI 54311-7001

  2. Something New?

  3. Topography of China

  4. Loess in China

  5. Huang He Diversions 400 BC - Present

  6. Scale of Huang He Diversions

  7. 1890

  8. 1900

  9. 1910

  10. 1918

  11. 1932

  12. 1937

  13. July, 1937

  14. August, 1937

  15. End of 1937

  16. Japanese Strategy 1938

  17. Extent of Flooding(After Todd, 1949)

  18. Military Effects of the Breach • Minor losses of Japanese troops and materiel • Few troops caught on the wrong side escaped • Chinese gain time for withdrawal and relocation of capital • Flood also protects Japanese flank • Little additional fighting in Central China • Japanese capture of Wuhan (Hankow) delayed by only a couple of months • No central authority in much of Central China • Communists gain support

  19. Fatalities + Refugees, 1938 Flood

  20. Fatalities, 1938 Flood

  21. Refugee/Fatality Ratio, 1938 Flood

  22. Flood Fatality Estimation • Graham, W.J., 1999, DSO-99-06, A Procedure for Estimating Loss of Life Caused by Dam Failure • Assuming poor understanding of risk downstream • Fatality rate in parentheses is recommended prediction value

  23. Casualty Model Applied to 1938 • Population of Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu flooded counties = 13.2 million (Lary, 2001) • Medium severity, no warning (15%)  2 million fatalities • Medium severity, > 1 hour warning (3%)  400,000 fatalities • 844,000 fatalities = 6.4%

  24. Visualizing the Risk

  25. Lessons From Banqiao, 1975 • > 1 m rain in 24 hours from typhoon • 1000 year dam but 2000 year floods • After nine days, a million people were still stranded • 26,000 died in the flooding, 145,000 from disease and famine • More violent event than 1938, but happened in peacetime with intact infrastructure

  26. Moral Large at-risk population + Flat terrain + Lack of Mobility or Communications = Huge Death Toll • Bangladesh 1971: 300,000 • Bangladesh 1991: 140,000 • Myanmar 2008: 200,000

  27. What We’d Still Like to Know • Survivor Accounts: Need to Act Quickly • Exact chronology and extent of flooding • Effects of normal Huang He floods later • Specific Causes of Mortality • Drowning by flood? • Exposure of stranded victims? • Dehydration? • Water-borne disease? • Loss of Crops?

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