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Presented by Jerry Hembd

Economic Overview Polk-Burnett Leadership Academy December 8, 2005. Northern Center for Community and Economic Development. Presented by Jerry Hembd. Northern Center for Community and Economic Development.

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Presented by Jerry Hembd

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  1. Economic Overview Polk-Burnett Leadership Academy December 8, 2005 Northern Center for Community and Economic Development Presented by Jerry Hembd

  2. Northern Center for Community and Economic Development Supporting community and economic development in Northern Wisconsin through applied research, education and outreach

  3. Changing Development Landscape • More local development organizations • More sophisticated development professionals and approaches • Broadening view of development and development strategies • More regional, state, and national “players” • Greater opportunity and need for networks and collaboration

  4. Demographics • Employment • Income • Economic development strategies – from traditional to “the world is flat”

  5. Percentage Population Change by Decade1900 – 2000County, State and United States Burnett County Polk County Wisconsin United States

  6. Percentage Population Change by Decade1900 – 2000Region, State and United States Northern Wisconsin Wisconsin United States

  7. Percent Population Change, by Decade 1900 – 2000, Counties and State County Wisconsin Bayfield Burnett Ashland Douglas Iron Polk Price Rusk Sawyer Washburn Taylor Wisconsin

  8. Components of Population Change in Burnett County: 1990-2000

  9. Components of Population Change in Polk County: 1990-2000

  10. Projected Population Change in Burnett County: 2000-2030 (from 15,674 to 17,194)

  11. Projected Population Change in Polk County: 2000-2030 (from 41,319 to 52,257)

  12. Population Distribution by Age Burnett County 2005 and 2030 Burnett County in 2005 Burnett County in 2030

  13. Population Distribution by Age Polk County 2005 and 2030 Polk County in 2005 Polk County in 2030

  14. Change in Burnett CountyPopulation Between 2005 and 2030

  15. Change in Polk CountyPopulation Between 2005 and 2030

  16. Graying Nation By 2030, one in every five Americans will be 65 or older, according to census projections. Burnett County: From 20.3 to 36.5 % Polk County: From 15.1 to 26.4 %

  17. International Aging Comparisons

  18. Percent White Population: 2000 Wisconsin = 89% United States = 69% Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000

  19. National Employment bySuper Sector

  20. Demand-Side SituationState of Wisconsin • Strong growth in the number of jobs—now and for some time • Increasing demand is being driven by increase in people turning retirement age • Retired population are leading consumers—they are generally wealthier than people think

  21. Understand the demand side, but don’t forget: IT’S A SUPPLY PROBLEM

  22. Supply Side of the Labor MarketState of Wisconsin • Decrease in numbers of younger entry level workers – tied to decrease in births • Increasing retirement of “baby boomers” • Nearly full labor force participation rate for females • Commuting net loss (90,000 out; 20,000 in) • Loss in college graduates to neighboring states • Low in-migration, especially foreign born immigrants (4.5% vs. 12.5% nationally)

  23. Share of Manufacturing Jobs Wisconsin = 18.8% United States = 11.4% Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003

  24. Share of Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Wisconsin = 9.5% United States = 9.8% Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003

  25. Share of Education & Health Care Jobs Wisconsin = 18.8% United States = 20.9% Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2003

  26. Share of Transportation & Trade Jobs Wisconsin = 20.6% United States = 20.8% Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2002

  27. Ashland Bayfield Burnett Douglas Iron Price Rusk Sawyer Taylor Washburn Barron Chippewa Clark Dunn Eau Claire Pepin Pierce Polk St Croix West Central Counties Northwest Counties

  28. Nonfarm jobs in Northwest Wisconsin: 2003 Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2004

  29. Nonfarm jobs in West Central Wisconsin: 2003 Source: DWD, Census of Employment & Wages, 2004

  30. Education services Food services and drinking places Nursing and resident care facilities Hospitals Executive, legislative and general government Ambulatory health care services Food and beverage stores 10 Largest Industry Groups(almost half the jobs in NW and WC Wisconsin) • Northwest • Wood manufacturing • Truck transportation • Social assistance • West Central • Food manufacturing • General merchandise stores • Professional and technical services

  31. Top 10 Industries in Burnett CountyMarch 2004(in rank order by size) Top 10 industries 59% of total employment

  32. Top 10 Industries in Polk CountyMarch 2004(in rank order by size) Top 10 industries 48% of total employment

  33. Top 10 Employers in Burnett CountyMarch 2004(in rank order by size) Top 10 employers 38% of total employment

  34. Top 10 Employers in Polk CountyMarch 2004(in rank order by size) Top 10 employers 23% of total employment

  35. Labor Force Participation by Age Group

  36. Labor Force Participation by Age Group

  37. 15% 8% 10% -4% -6% Northwest WisconsinLabor Force Current & Projected

  38. 14% 19% 14% 4% 1.5% West Central WisconsinLabor Force Current & Projected

  39. Growth in US Workforce By Age2000-2010 Who Will Run Your Company? If we look at workforce growth rates by age segment, the patterns are dramatic. In the current decade, the ranks of youngest workers (ages 16-24, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics groupings) are growing by 15%, thanks to the “echo boom” as baby boomers’ children enter the workforce. The 25 to 34 year-old segment is growing at just half that rate, and the workforce population between 35 and 44 years old is actually declining. With the baby boom generation moving into middle age and its vanguard nearing retirement age, the fastest workforce growth rates are in the three oldest age segments.

  40. Northwest WisconsinJob Growth by Industry 2002-2012

  41. West Central WisconsinJob Growth by Industry 2002-2012

  42. Cashiers Retail salespersons Registered nurses Nursing Aides Truck drivers (heavy/tractor-trailer) Comb food preparation (incl fast food) Waiters/Waitresses Carpenters Personal and home care aides Janitors and cleaners Sales reps (wholesale/manufacturing) General and operations managers Maintenance and repair workers (general) 16 Occupations with most new jobs 2002 - 2012 • Northwest • Office clerks/general • Bartenders • Maids/housekeeping cleaners • West Central • Home health aides • Customer service reps • Receptionists/info clerks

  43. Cashiers Retail salespersons Waiters/Waitresses Comb food preparation (incl fast food) Nursing aides Truck drivers (heavy/tractor-trailer) Registered nurses Bartenders Janitors/cleaners Laborers (freight, stock, hand) Office clerks/general Carpenters Sales reps (wholesale/manufacturing) 16 Occupations with most openings 2002 - 2012 • Northwest • Personal and home care aides • Maids/housekeeping cleaners • Elementary school teachers • West Central • Team assemblers • Stock clerks and order fillers • Customer service reps

  44. Home Health Aides Personal Care Aides Social/Human Service Assistants Registered Nurses Preschool Teachers Electricians Receptionists & Information Clerks Bus Drivers, School Child Care Workers Counter and Rental Clerks Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters Hairdressers/Cosmetologists Carpenters Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Nursing Aides Child/Family/School Social Workers Northwest Wisconsin16 Occupations with greatest % increase

  45. Medical Assistants (+59%) Medical Records & Health Information Technicians Home Health Aides Social Service Assts Personal Care Aides Dental Hygienists Occupational Therapists Physical Therapists Dental Assistants Taxi Drivers-Chauffeurs Interviewers (not eligibility or loan) Rehab. Counselors Heating/AC/Refrig Mechanics & Installers Health Services Mgrs. Computer Software Engnrs, Applications Network/Computer Systems Administrators(33%) West Central Wisconsin16 Occupations with greatest % increase

  46. Northwest WisconsinEducation typically required in projected annual openings

  47. COMMUTING PATTERNS 4,513 residents live and work in county 2,221 residents commute outside the county for a job 835 residents of other counties commute to the county for work NET OUTFLOW OF 1,386 WORKERS

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