United Nations Commodity Stabilization Policy Design Workshop

1. United Nations Commodity Stabilization Policy Design Workshop Using a computer-simulation-based Interactive Learning Environment (ILE) by Paul Newton

2. Purpose of Workshop To illustrate an approach for the design of commodity stabilization policy

3. Objectives of the Workshop • To illustrate that commodity dynamics can be more a function of the interrelation of supply and demand forces, than a function of the exogenous, random influences on commodity systems. • To understand the difference between a commodity’s fluctuations and its instability. • To appreciate the potential of system dynamics modeling as a way of helping us to better understand commodity dynamics.

4. Audience for the Workshop Representatives to the United Nations from countries whose economies significantly rely on either production or consumption of primary commodities

5. Workshop Process • We’ll be together for 3-5 days, depending on learning pace of participants. • Pre-reading - portions of Meadows’ book • During the week, a mix of: • reading, both online and in Meadows’ book • class and small group discussions • policy tests using computer simulations • small group presentations to the class.

6. Meadows’ book • Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles (1970) Wright Allen Press, Cambridge, MA • This course is focused on teaching the lessons of primarily Chapter 6 from Meadows’ book, but in a more interactive and expansive way than is possible just from a reading of the book. • However, it is still important to review the book. You will find it useful during the week, as we hope you already have in the pre-reading for the course.

7. General Workshop Agenda • Discussion of pre-reading in general • Discussion of difference between commodity fluctuations and stability • Group discussion of Figure 4-2 as instructor develops it on the overhead • Instructor simulation & group discussion of model to produce Fig 6-2 • Instructor simulation & group discussion of Exercise 1 to produce Fig 6-4 & 6-2

8. General Workshop Agenda cont’d • Work using single computer simulations • Students perform Exercise 2 • Group discussion of Exercise 2 • Repeat previous 2 steps for Exercises 3 - 8 • Work using multi-computer simulations • Groups of students perform Exercise 9 • Group presentations and class discussions of each group’s commodity stabilization policies

9. Reference - Fig 6-2 1 - Fig 6-4 2 - Fig 6-6 3 - Fig 6-7 4 - Fig 6-8 5 - Fig 6-10 6 - Fig 6-12 7 - Fig 6-14 8 - Fig 6-15 9 - Capstone Exercise, A multi-user, multi-policy exercise. Note: the 1st 9 exercises are single-user, single policy exercises 10 Exercises from Meadows’ Book

10. Primary Workshop Tools • An online document with instructions and hyperlinks to the simulation exercises • An online computer simulation software (Powersim), pre-configured to make operation easy. • Facilitators will demonstrate the use of these tools in doing the first two exercises on the computer display projector

11. Presentations to Class • Hypothesized behavior • Test behavior (from simulation experiment) • If test behavior differed from hypothesized behavior, ask yourself why & then present & discuss with group and class. • What do your experiments mean in real life • How could the the structure of the model be changed to produce more realistic behavior

12. LEARN A LOT&HAVE FUN!