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Evaluation of CFS-Tier2 Forecasts with Bias-Corrected SST

Assessment of 15-member hindcast suite (1981-2004) for seasonal climate prediction with bias-corrected SST forecasts in CFS. Impact analysis on precipitation and surface temperature, focusing on reduction in errors and localized responses.

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Evaluation of CFS-Tier2 Forecasts with Bias-Corrected SST

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  1. Evaluation of CFS-Tier2 Forecasts with Bias-Corrected SST J. Schemm, K. Seo, Q. Zhang and M. L’Heureux CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop The Pennsylvania State university October 24, 2005

  2. Objective: To assess the impact of improved SST forecasts on seasonal climate prediction. One of the CTB projects for FY2005. Description: 15-member hindcast suite (1981-2004) of 6-month forecast length with the atmospheric component of CFS. The bias-corrected CFS monthly mean SST forecasts imposed as ocean boundary condition. Status: Forecast runs with April IC’s and October IC’s finished. Preliminary analyses focused on precipitation and surface temperature will be discussed.

  3. Summary • Analyses concentrated on precipitation and surface temperature so far. • Some reduction in Tropical precipitation error realized in longer lead times. Positive impact on coastal areas of Asia and NA. • Impact of SST corrections in mid-latitude areas shows very localized response, e. g., some improvement in both variables over west coast and eastern sector of NA. • Further analyses needed to explain the changes in CFS response to SST corrections.

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