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Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School

BACKGROUND MATERIAL FOR ‘BRIDGING THE GAP’ PROJECT. Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School University of Salford, UK (Email: b.c.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk ). CAREER BACKGROUND ETC. Started in industrial OR

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Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School

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  1. BACKGROUND MATERIAL FOR ‘BRIDGING THE GAP’ PROJECT Brian Dangerfield Centre for OR & Applied Statistics Salford Business School University of Salford, UK (Email: b.c.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk)

  2. CAREER BACKGROUND ETC. • Started in industrial OR • Been involved with SD since 1970’s • Exec Editor of SD Review since 2002 • Role in this project is advisory • Opportunities you might grasp: • Research Problems paper • Upcoming 2008 International SD Conference

  3. HIV/AIDS RESEARCH

  4. MILESTONES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIV/AIDS MODEL Number of Year (quarter) of Feature equations (approx) introduction Project-based model 13 1987(2) Variable infectivity 20 1989(1) Heterogeneity & changing behaviour 47 1990(2) Reporting delay & fitting model to data 70 1992(2) Treatment effect & removals / additions 120 1997(4) Health care sector 190 1998(4) Introduction of HAART 300 1999(2) Effects of regression in behaviour after HAART (fitting to HIV data) 360 2001(3)

  5. HIV/AIDS • JORS 41: (1990) • In: “Models for Infectious Human Diseases” V. Isham and G. Medley Eds., C.U.P. (1996) • EU Concerted Action Report: RIVM (1997) • Recovering the AIDS Incubation Time Distribution from Right-Censored Data SDR 15: (1999) • HAART SDR 17: (2001) RE-CONFIGURING HEALTH SERVICES • JORS 56: (2005) • JHSRP 10: (2005)

  6. ECONOMIC MODELLING

  7. Map of Borneo

  8. Model purpose How and over what time-scale can the State of Sarawak best manage the transition from a production-based economy to a knowledge-based economy and thereby improve international competitiveness?

  9. Skills/Tech Transfer Money Capital Equipment Human Resources DYNAMIC HYPOTHESIS: high-level map Higher Education (Arts) SUPPLY Leakage Overseas? Primary & Secondary Education R & D Centres (Exemplars) Higher Education (Science) Federal Funds Vocational Education (Sub-professional) ICT Infrastructure DEMAND Primary Industry (Agric; Forestry; Mining; M/facturing) State Revenue Broadband Cabling (Kms) Secondary Industry (Transport; Storage; Retail; Finance & Insurance) State Incentives Number of PC’s Closures? COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE Knowledge-based Industry & Services High Value-added; Biotech; Medicine F D I

  10. Sectors of the model • Population • Education & Human capital • Workforce (main view ) • Workforce (measures of performance) • R&D/ ICT Infrastructure/k-industries • Manufacturing; Services (tourism) & GDP • Timber Production: trees • Timber Production: downstream processing • Palm Oil: trees • Palm Oil: products • Sago production • LNG & petroleum production • State Revenue & spending

  11. Dissemination • Various conference presentations • ICFAI Journal of Knowledge Management 3: (2005) • Article in “Complex Decision-Making: Theory & Practice”, H Qudrat-Ullah, MJ Spector & P Davidsen (Eds) Springer, NY (2007)

  12. CURRENTLY….

  13. “Sustained competitiveness in the UK Construction Industry” • EPSRC funded & collaborative with Reading & Loughborough IMRC’s • £1.5m budget. SD modelling a major component • See www.thebigideas.org.uk

  14. Contractors Model Competitiveness Index delay in completing contracts delay in starting contracts fraction allocated to firm

  15. ISDC 2008 in ATHENS • July 20-24 2008 (Athenaeum Intercontinental) • My role is Programme Chair • Two opportunities: • ‘Developmental papers’ • Workshops on the Thursday (24th) • See www.systemdynamics.org

  16. QUESTIONS?….

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