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Overview of NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

Learn about the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center's mission to enhance numerical forecast models for weather and climate outlooks. Explore their suite of forecast products and operational systems.

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Overview of NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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  1. William. M. LapentaActing DirectorEnvironmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEPWith contributions from many EMC Staff…… Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with an Emphasis on Climate

  2. The EMC Mission….. In response to operational requirements: • Develop and Enhancenumerical guidance • Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model systems via: • Scientific upgrades • Optimization • Additional observations • Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations • Transform & integrate • Code • Algorithms • Techniques • Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation • Maintain operational model suite • The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems • Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes 45% 30% EMC location within the funnel 25%

  3. NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System 2 Week • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Global Ensemble Forecast System 1 Week • Global Forecast System Real Time Ocean Forecast System • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days Waves Hurricane WRF & GFDL • North American Mesoscale Hours Space Weather Tsunami • Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes • Dispersion Models for DHS Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations

  4. Production Suite on Supercomputer January 2010 Development Work Fence High Water Mark Number of Nodes 12 18 06 00 Time of the day (utc)

  5. Production Suite on Supercomputer December 2010 Development Work Fence High Water Mark Number of Nodes 12 18 06 00 Capacity Change: 50% increase in production 80% decrease in development Time of the day (utc)

  6. Development Work on Supercomputer December 2010 Number of Nodes 12 18 06 00 Time of the day (utc)

  7. The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015-1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1

  8. Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned for Q2FY11

  9. 0 UTC 6 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V2 (FY11) A total of 16 CFS runs every day • 4 runs @ 9 months length • 3 runs @ 1 season • 9 runs @ 45 days 9 Month Seasonal 45 Day

  10. Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar CFS Operational CFS V2 Skill Skill Days Days WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational CFS V2 Skill Skill Days Days

  11. Increasing Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities International MME products (with EUROSIP) NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL Climate Model+NCAR CSM Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS • Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period (7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009) • Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts • WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM

  12. Land-Hydrology Team Mission • Improve EMC Forecast Model performance and skill via land-surface component: • NAM/WRF, HWRF, GFS, CFS, CFSRR/GLDAS, NARR (including NDAS and GDAS) • Land model physics (Noah LSM): surface fluxes, soil, vegetation, snowpack, sfc-layer/PBL • Land surface characteristics: Vegetation cover, soil type, albedo, emissivity, roughness, etc • Land state initial conditions: soil moisture & temp, snowpack • Climate Service Products (CPPA): • NLDAS soil moisture analysis/monitoring/prediction for NIDIS (drought) • NLDAS soil moisture seasonal predictions • CEOP (Global Model intercomparisons among NWP centers; GEWEX program) 11

  13. June 1998 – drought year Large similarity and small spread July 1993 – flood year Similar characteristics and large spread EXTREMES: Monthly total column soil moisture anomalies and model spread (mm/month)

  14. Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global) Example surface currents from MMAB parallel • Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using • Daily initialization from NAVO. • GFS forcing. • Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-up. • NCO parallel started FY10Q4. • Establish reliability of NAVO data feed. • Establish compatibility of NCEP and Navy forcing. • Develop products with customers. • Full data on NOMADS. • Become operational in FY2011Q4

  15. NOAA Environmental Modeling System(NEMS)

  16. Questions Welcome

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