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Review of 2005 NCEP Forecast Upgrades Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

Review of 2005 NCEP Forecast Upgrades Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather, and ocean services begin”. Overview. June – Global Forecast System August – Global Ensembles June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution

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Review of 2005 NCEP Forecast Upgrades Stephen J. Lord Director NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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  1. Review of 2005NCEP Forecast UpgradesStephen J. LordDirectorNCEP Environmental Modeling Center NCEP: “where America’s climate, weather, and ocean services begin”

  2. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  3. June 2005 NCEP Global Forecast System - List of Upgrades • Model • Increase resolution from T254 (55 km) to T382 (35 km) • Old: T254/L64 (0-84 h) T170/L42 (84-180h, T126/L28 to 384h • New: T382/L64 (0-180 h) T190/L64 (180-364 h) • Modified vertical diffusion • Enhanced mountain blocking • New sea ice model • Fractional sea ice & leads • Impacts surface fluxes • New code structure • Increased computational efficiency • ESMF compatible superstructure • “Hybrid (sigma-pressure) ready”

  4. List of Upgrades (cont) • Model (cont) • Upgrade to Noah Land Surface Model • 2-4 soil layers • Reduction of early bias in snow pack depletion • Improved treatment of • Frozen soil • Ground heat flux • Energy and water balance at surface • Reformulated infiltration and runoff functions • Upgraded vegetation fraction (NESDIS) • Improved, plug-compatible, code structure

  5. List of Upgrades (cont) • Analysis • Increase resolution to T382 • Surface emissivity model for snow and ice (JCSDA) • 3 X data used in NH polar latitudes • 1.3 X in SH polar latitudes • AQUA AIRS and AMSU-A (new data) • Upgraded thinning algorithm for radiances • QC algorithm for clouds

  6. Performance Results - Winter AC +2% RMS - 8% Consistent day-to-day performance

  7. Fits to Rawinsondes Upper Trop & Lower Strat. Ops – solid Par. - dashed 24 h 48 h Major Improvement

  8. Performance Results – Summer AC +3% RMS - 8% Consistent day-to-day performance

  9. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  10. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM NEW CURRENT CONFIGURATION MARCH 2003 • Breeding method • 24 hours breeding cycle • 4 cycles per day • 10 m for each cycle • Ens. Ctl at t00z only • Total 45 m in 24 hours • 4 different resolutions • 16-day forecasts

  11. Hurricane Track Plots Frances (08/28) With relocation Without relocation

  12. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  13. Comparison of Operational and Parallel Hi-Res Window WRF 8 km operational WRF-NMM 5.1 km parallel WRF-NMM 10 km operational WRF-ARW 5.8 km parallel WRF-ARW 3 h precipitation total (in.)

  14. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  15. SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members Chance that truth is outside ensemble range RMS Error 15 member 21 member

  16. 250 mb winds SREF Operational PerformanceOutlier Percentage 48 h forecasts (November 2005) 850 mb Temp Ens Warmer Ens In Range Ens Cooler Outlier Percent Ens Slower Ens In Range Ens Faster Outlier Percent • Outlier percentage reduced for SREF/21 system • WRF sub-members agree best w/ obs as compared to Eta and RSM sub-members

  17. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  18. Observations NASA-NOAA-DOD JCSDA AMSR, GOES, AIRS, JASON, WindSat, MODIS Advanced ODA Techniques $1451 K (total) $341 K (direct) Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA -$446 K EMC- $170 K NOPP-JPL (ECCO)- $34 K RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP- $285 K EMC- $350 K Shared history, coding, and data processing CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System HYCOM  HOME MOM-3  MOM-4  HOME http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

  19. Adding TOPEX/Jason-1 satellite altimetry to NCEP GODAS No assimilated data In situ data Assimilated (operational) Operational Plus altimeter Larger correlations between GODAS and Altimeter data in Indian and Atlantic Oceans Smaller RMS errors

  20. US GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOMOperational December 2005 • Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins • NCEP Partners with • University of Miami/RSMAS • NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC • NOAA PMEL, AOML • Los Alamos National Laboratory • Others (international, commercial) • Hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model (called Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model – HYCOM) • Funded FY 2003-2007 by NOPP Chesapeake Bay

  21. Deployment Schedule North Atlantic World Oceans North-East Pacific Hawaii FY 2006 2007 2008 Initiate interactions with NOS on bay and estuary model boundary conditions; Initiate wave-current interactions. Storm Surge Modeling Ecosystem Modeling Global atmosphere-ocean Coupling and Hurricane-Ocean Coupling

  22. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  23. New JCSDA SATELLITE SST Retrieval Method: • SST physical retrieval method • Variational algorithm (Derber and Xu Li). • Cost function minimizes the increment between; • Observed radiances and simulated radiances, and • Analyzed SST and its first guess • Requires radiative transfer model to simulate Brightness Temperatures for each channel using • SST first guess (previous analysis) • Air Temperature (GDAS analysis) • Water vapor mixing ratio (GDAS analysis) • System upgrades • 12 km resolution • Improved time and space continuity

  24. Smoother anomalies (less noise) Smoother anomalies (less noise)

  25. Daily Analysis Difference RTG_SST-HR Operational Reduced daily noise

  26. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  27. Summary of NCEP CFS Forecasts for 2005-2006 La Nina • Monthly CFS forecasts • Consistent forecast of cold event (-1 K) since June-July 2005 • Other models converging on cold event beginning in January CFS

  28. Overview • June – Global Forecast System • August – Global Ensembles • June - Mesoscale WRF High Resolution • December - Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System • December - Real-Time Ocean Forecast System • August – Daily SST upgrade • Climate Forecast System performance • The future

  29. NCEP 2006-7 Upgrades • Power 5+ system for operations • July delivery • Jan 2007 operational • New R&D computer (TBA) • GFS sigma-pressure hybrid model • WRF North American system - (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model)

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