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Decoding US Foreign Policy Decisions: Models, Theories, and Dynamics

Explore the intricate politics of US foreign policy decision-making, from historical patterns to contemporary challenges. Delve into rational actor models, groupthink, and governmental politics to understand the complex stages of policymaking. Learn about dominant theories, common patterns of perception, and the impact of stress on decision-making processes.

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Decoding US Foreign Policy Decisions: Models, Theories, and Dynamics

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  1. The Politics of U.S Foreign PolicyChapter 9

  2. History: Patterns of Policymaking • Globalization • Preeminence • Rise or Restriction of presidential power • Rise of the NSC vis-à-vis State • Expansion of the national security bureaucracy • Ascent of non-security agencies • Resulting complication

  3. Policymaking Stages • Agenda setting • Policy formulation • Policy implementation

  4. Theory: Models of Decisionmaking • Rational Actor • Groupthink • Governmental politics • Organizational process

  5. Rational Actor • Ideal type – decision and implementation • Pyramid of authority • President dominates hierarchy • Information and advice flow directly to president • Decisions based on advice and information • EOP staff manages bureaucratic response • Rational, centralized and responsive

  6. Groupthink • Overestimate competency • Stereotype out-groups • Rationalize decisions • Pressure to conform, self-censorship • Illusion of consensus • Examples: Johnson, Reagan, Bush

  7. Governmental Politics Model • Pluralism • Diffusion of power • Competition • Compromise

  8. Organizational Process Model • Bureaucracy: information, alternatives and implementation • The bureaucracy as an independent driving force • Decentralized • Feudal • Contradictions and incoherence • Incremental

  9. Policymaking Levels • Presidential • Bureaucratic

  10. Cognition and Perception • Cognitive structures of belief • Selective memory • Selective attention and perception • Causal inference • Cognitive stability

  11. Dominant Theories • Cognitive consistency theory: consistency seekers • Schema theory: cognitive misers

  12. Common Patterns of Perception and Misperception • Categorization and stereotyping • Simplifying causal inference • Historical analogies

  13. Personality and Decisionmaking • Johnson • Reagan • Bush • Obama

  14. Stress and Decisionmaking • Low and moderate stress levels • High stress levels • Short term, long term

  15. Crisis and Stress • Heighten salience of time • Reduce size of policymaking group • Reduce tolerance for ambiguity • Increase cognitive rigidity • Encourage selective search for information • Produce concern for immediate future • Minimize communication • Increase ad hoc communication • Limit alternatives • Increase likelihood of polarized choice • Disrupt complex learning

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