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Framework and Analysis Approach

Framework and Analysis Approach. Project Goal. Financing and Return on Investment. Effect of Federal, State, & Local Spending Bonding Evaluate Alternative Funding Scenarios: Gas tax versus Sales Tax Multiple Funding Sources Sensitivity Analysis.

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Framework and Analysis Approach

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  1. Framework and Analysis Approach Project Goal Financing and Return on Investment Effect of Federal, State, & Local Spending Bonding Evaluate Alternative Funding Scenarios: Gas tax versus Sales Tax Multiple Funding Sources Sensitivity Analysis • Quantify improved network efficiency and economic benefits due to changes in: • Access to Labor Pool • Access to Intermediate Product Pool • Transportation Costs & Delivered Prices

  2. Washington DOT Project Method • Calibrate REMI Fiscal Module to 2004 Fiscal Year State Budget • “Overview of the Washington Tax System: Part 1”, 2004 • Collect Travel Data: VMT, VHT, & Trips • By mode: Auto & Truck • Bus and Passenger Train also available • By time of day • Provided by Emme/2 simulations • Modeling construction phase • Engineering • Construction • Long-term Maintenance • Model funding “cocktail” • Local Gas Tax • “Nickel Gas Tax”: State Wide Gas Tax • 2005 Partnership Tax: $0.095 State wide Gas Tax

  3. Investment Alternatives: Interstate or State Road • An interstate capacity improvement project that involved roadway widening, interchange, park and ride lots, and transit improvements • A highway extension project that would connect two major state highways, filling the missing link

  4. Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from 1999 to 2030 - Interstate

  5. Travel Model Results: Annual VHT, VMT, & Speed % Change from No Build Scenario from 1999 to 2030 – State Road

  6. Timelines Interstate State Road 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $36 Million 2007 to 2015 construction begins. Total cost: $960 Million Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013 Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for State Road equals $35 million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period Local Gas Tax increase generates $913 Million (2003-2015) • 2003 to 2006 the first phase involves engineering and planning services (increased demand for professional technical service) $168 Million • 2007 to 2015 construction begins. • Total cost: $3.0 Billion • Travel benefits begin phasing in from 2013 • Beginning 2004, nickel tax budgeted for Interstate equals $485 Million, which is allocated to an increase in consumer prices in gasoline for the 10-year period • Local Gas Tax increase generates $1.741 Billion (2003- 2015) • “2005 Partnership Funding Package”: By 2030 the tax will generate $972 Million

  7. Timeline for I-405 and SR-509 Spending and Agglomeration Planning and Engineering: 2003 - 2006 Construction: 2007 - 2015 Transportation Improvement Benefits Accrue: 2015 - 2040 Local Gas Tax: 2003 - 2015 2005 Transportation Partnership Funding Package: 2005 – 2030 Tax Phase-In from $0.03 to $0.095 from 2005 t0 2009 Nickel Tax: 2004 - 2030 Taxes and Financing

  8. Maintenance Schedules Interstate State Road

  9. Funding Shares Interstate State Road

  10. Jobs in Thousands Transportation Benefits Accrue Investment Period

  11. Employment Distribution- Services

  12. GRP in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region Major Spending and taxes begin

  13. Sales in Millions in Central Puget Sound Region Major Spending and taxes begin

  14. Population in Thousands Benefits Engineering & Phase In Construction Phase

  15. Labor Force in Thousands Benefits Engineering & Phase In Construction Phase

  16. Overall Results – Both Scenarios Average Annual Growth 2005 to 2040 Totals from 2005 to 2040 - Aggregate * All in Billions of 2004$ Economic Benefit Cost Ratio

  17. Economic Benefit/Cost Conclusion • Captures direct, induced, and intermediate benefits and costs • Dynamic year by year estimates until 2040, impact analysis and forecast available to 2050 •  GSP, which represents the economic growth and inherently includes the impacts of new business, income, and consumption reported in dollar terms. • Costs, which include the total direct project financing, operation, and maintenance expenditures. • Emissions and safety treated as regional disamenities, because the increase in VMT drives the EPA’s Mobile6 and Part5 estimates and FHWA’s accident rates. • As the economic benefits accrue over the next few years, the overall benefit cost ratio by 2030 is 6.31 for State Road versus 2.73 for Interstate. • State Road maintains a gap of approximately 2.3 times that of Interstate for most of the future years.

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