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Bosnia and Herzegovina Conflict Analysis

Bosnia and Herzegovina Conflict Analysis. Steering Board Ambassadors/Board of Principles/ meeting Sarajevo, 8 October 2013. Overview. 1. Methodology 2. S tate of mind 3. Perception of problems Institutions and governance International Community enagegment 6 . Agents of change

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Bosnia and Herzegovina Conflict Analysis

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  1. Bosnia and HerzegovinaConflict Analysis Steering Board Ambassadors/Board of Principles/ meeting Sarajevo, 8 October 2013

  2. Overview 1. Methodology 2. State of mind 3. Perception of problems • Institutions and governance • International Community enagegment 6. Agents of change 7.Citizen participation 8. Varying views with regard to B&H perspective (table) 9. Views of the past and reconcilliation 10. Vision of B&H 11. Security: likelyhood of violence 12. Focus grups: main issues 13. Conclusions

  3. Methodology • Multidimensional Questionnaire • Prism research Public Opinion Poll, May 7th to 22nd 2013; Research sample and size: • 1500respondents ; • 805 Bosniaks, 178 Croats and 462 Serbs; • 840 of the respondents live in rural, 660 in urban areas. • Desk review • Interviews and consultations • Interviews with key stakeholders • Focus groups, May 24 – June 4. 2013 : • Youth, working class, demobilized soldiers and women; • Over 50 participants in total from across BiH; • Facilitated and assisted by several local experts.

  4. 2. State of mind • 50.2%of the respondents describe their state of mind over the past year in negative terms (lethargic); • 12% satisfied, optimistic or content; • 52.2% feel their life is the same; • 39.6% worse than a year ago; • 49.3% expect it to be the same by the next year; • 33.1% worse by the next year.

  5. State of Mind

  6. 3. Perception of Problems • 72.4% of respondents see corruption as the main problem across the country; • 59% see economy as the main problem; • 50.5% see politics as the main problem;

  7. 4. Institutions and governance - Trust • 51.8% have confidence in the police; • 42.7% in religious leaders; • 28.6% trust international community • 24.4 % and 16.6 %trust entity and cantonal governments, and • 11.4 % trust the politicians, • Only one in 10 citizens trust local politicians.

  8. Institutions and governance: Levels of trust

  9. 5. International Community engagement • Active engagement: 69.6% (FB&H) 71.5% (Bosniak) 25.3% (RS) 18.2% (Serb) 57.4% (BD) 61.3% (Croat) • No engagement: 9.6% (FB&H) 11.2%(Bosniak) 48.8% (RS) 52.4%(Serb) 11.7% (BD) 11.4%(Croat)

  10. 6. Agents of change • 63.0%youth • 50.5% citizens • 26.1 % intellectuals • 24.2%international community • 53.0% support active international engagement.

  11. 7. Citizen participation Disinterest in actively participating in changing the society: • 53.85 %willing to vote in the elections; • 34.5 % willing to leave the country; • 31.1 %would demonstrate; • 16.7%willing to join acitizens’ action group; • 14.5% a political party; • 6.6%ready to use force or violence if necessary.

  12. 8. Varying views with regard to B&H`s EU perspective

  13. 9. Views of the past and reconcilliation Ethnic groups have starkly different views of the past conflict: • 39.7% of the respondents believe that there has been reconciliation in BiH; • 13 % believe that reconcilliation is possible; • 73% would prefer to live in communities dominated by their own ethic group.

  14. 10. Vision of B&H • 71.9%of Serbs and 53.6% Croats wish to live in independent mono-ethnic entities; • 36.7%of Bosniaks desire to live in B&H within its current borders, • 20.6% of them wish to live in an independent Bosniak entity; • 28.5% of them accept living inB&H within it‘s current borderds and entities.

  15. 11. Security: likelyhood of violence • 2/3 believe that the outbreak of new armed conflict in the Balkan region is not likely in the next 5 years; • 35.7 % from all ethnic groups think that there could be some violence (criminal acts, violent protests, separate ethnic incidents,broader ethnic conflict); • Likelihood of B&H not splitting peacefully? • 58.8 % Bosniaks • 55% Croats • 44.7% Serbs

  16. Security: likelyhood of violenceIf integrity of BiH was threatened… Use peaceful means • 54.4%Bosniaks • 45% Croats • 30.6% Serbs Willing to take up arms • 13.5%Bosniaks • 12.6% Croats and • 1.5% Serbs Not engage at all • 28.4%Bosniaks, • 40.1% Croats and • 64.9% Serbs would not engage in any way.

  17. 12. Focus groups: main issues • Democratic process: high level of election fraud; • Corruption as a parallel system, more trusted than administration; • Heavily dependent on the international community.

  18. 13. Conclusions • Lethargy prevents change • Citizens passive, unless threatened… • But majority feel their ethnic group still being threatened • Wrong perception of international engagement • Crisis of common identity and all levels of society (that no constitutional reform can fix) • Future uncertain and unpredictable

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