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Tropical Atlantic Coupled Modes of Variability

Tropical Atlantic Coupled Modes of Variability. Paulo Nobre National Institute for Space Research – INPE WCRP – Open Science Conference, Denver, 24 October 2011. TAV in review. Damped Equatorial mode , e.g. Atlantic Niño: Zebiak (1993) Chang et al (2000) Nobre et al (2003).

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Tropical Atlantic Coupled Modes of Variability

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  1. Tropical Atlantic Coupled Modes of Variability Paulo Nobre National Institute for Space Research – INPE WCRP – Open Science Conference, Denver, 24 October 2011

  2. TAV in review • Damped Equatorial mode, e.g. Atlantic Niño: • Zebiak (1993) • Chang et al (2000) • Nobre et al (2003) (Nobre, Zebiak & Kirtman, 2003) • Thermally direct meridional mode, e.g. ITCZ: • Moura and Shukla (1981) • Nobre and Shukla (1996) • Giannini et al (2001) (Nobre and Shukla, 1996) • Thermally indirect, e.g. SACZ: • Robertson and Mechoso (2001) • Chaves and Nobre (2004) • De Almeida et al (2007) • Nobre et al (2011, in review) (Robertson and Mechoso, 2000) Continental convection and Cupled O-A Model bias

  3. The SACZ 2-tier Quest MAM DJF Marengo et al. (2002) CPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SST

  4. The dynamics of the SACZ Chaves and Nobre (2004) De Almeida & al (2007) Nobre et al. (2011) Robertson & Mechoso (2000) Hidrostatic

  5. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Decreased Coupled Model Forecast Skill Increased Coupled Model Forecast Skill 20 years, 10 member ensemble CGCM & tween AGCM runs Nobre et al. (2005)

  6. Rainfall – SST Anomaly Correlations 20 years, 10 member ensemble CGCM & tween AGCM runs Nobre et al. (2011, submitted)

  7. Ensembles Coupled ForecastsSST-Rainfall Anomaly Correlations Nobre et al. (2011, submitted)

  8. Coupled Model Enhanced Precictability over South Atlantic RAINFALL SST CGCM CGCM AGCM Persistence 1 5 1 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 Lead (months) Lead (months) Nobre et al. (2011, submitted)

  9. … and what about the loss of predictability along the equator?…

  10. Coupled O-A Models inability to simulate Eq. Atlantic SST gradient Richter and Xie, 2008

  11. CPTEC’s CGCM 2.1 Z20 multi-year runs 1st Year Several IC 10th Year Several IC Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  12. CPTEC CGCM 2.1 Z20 OBSERVATION GRELL RAS KUO PAC ATL IND Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  13. Eq. Atlantic Zonal Wind Vertical Profille Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  14. Winds and Latent Heating Winds Latent Heating Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  15. Equatorial Atlantic SFC Winds“see” what’s going on over the Continent… Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  16. … reflecting in the Shallowing of the Atlantic EUC Nobre et al (2011, in prep.)

  17. Atlantic EUC Obs & Forced Simulation at 23W Giarola et al. (2005)‏

  18. Conclusions • Coupled modes of ocean-atmosphere essential to represent SACZ rainfall over cooler waters. • Vertical heating profile over the Amazon plays an important role in reducing systematic errors of coupled model ocean circulation (and temperature) over the equatorial Atlantic.

  19. Thank You. PIRATA ARRAY MAINTENANCE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

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