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Issue: Society Depends on Ecosystem Modeling to Predict Threats and Minimize Risk

Issue: Society Depends on Ecosystem Modeling to Predict Threats and Minimize Risk. Background: Broad Scale of Application. Building a “seamless suite” of model-based products and services over a backbone of existing infrastructure. Years. Climate Impacts. Climate Impacts.

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Issue: Society Depends on Ecosystem Modeling to Predict Threats and Minimize Risk

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  1. Issue: Society Depends on Ecosystem Modeling to Predict Threats and Minimize Risk

  2. Background: Broad Scale of Application Building a “seamless suite” of model-based products and services over a backbone of existing infrastructure Years Climate Impacts Climate Impacts Ecosystem Change Ecosystem Change Exposure Risk Exposure Risk Model-Based Ecosystem Forecasts Model - Based Seasons Habitat Migration Habitat Migration Scenario-Based Forecasts and Projections Species Abundance Species Abundance Scenario - Based Forecasts Invasive Spread Invasive Spread Frequency of Forecast Resource Recovery Resource Recovery Months Disease Transmission Disease Transmission Hypoxia Formation Hypoxia Formation Weeks Larval Pathways Larval Pathways Shellfish Closures Shellfish Closures Trajectory –Based Forecasts Trajectory - Based Spill Response Spill Response Forecasts Beach Advisories Beach Advisories Days Spatial Extent of Forecast Local Global Regional

  3. Diverse Investments and Activities • Global scale: • Coral bleaching • Ocean carbon chemistry • Pelagic habitat for protected species • Migration patterns of tuna & whales • Coccolithophore blooms • Regional scale: • HABs • Hypoxia • Ice extent • Stream • flow & effects on diadromous spp • Regional productivity dynamics • Regional stock assessments • Coastal ecosystem effects of climate change • Multiple stressors of coral reefs • Invasive species • Local scale: • Coral reef recovery after disturbance • Spill movement & restoration • Water quantity & quality • Beach closures • Shellfish toxicity • Larval transport & survival • Efficacy of MPAs • Probability of Sea nettles • Habitat • restoration

  4. Early warning system for algal blooms established Operational off Florida coast since 2004 Integrated observations, measurements, and analysis Predicts initiation, movement and landfall of harmful algal blooms on coastal areas Rapid dissemination to managers and the public Societal Benefit 95% of all bulletins used to guide management action eg., sampling, mitigation, public information Existing CapabilitiesExample Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin Oceanography & Hydrology Satellite: ocean color Forecasted Winds & Weather In situ samples Models Analysts HAB Bulletin Public Information Management Actions

  5. Observations and Data Ecological Prediction & Decision Support Tools Products & Services, Education & Training for Users & Stakeholders Environmental Modeling Research Framework and Operations • Comprehensive, coordinated, systematic, and sustained approach to develop, deliver, improve, operate, and maintain ecological forecasts, scenarios and projections

  6. Discussion: EFS National Benefits and Impacts Desired EFS Outcomes: Protected, preserved and restored biodiversity and ecosystem services, including water quality Realized sustained economic value from ecosystem services Increased human and ocean and ecosystem health Weather and water hazard mitigation Climate adaptation and stabilization

  7. Future Regional Capabilities Integrated monitoring & observations Regional earth system modeling framework and research Decision support End-to-end early warning Scenario based forecasting and climate projections

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