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Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study Overview January 28 th Webinar

Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study Overview January 28 th Webinar. Dave Corbus National Wind Technology Center National Renewable Energy Lab. Eastern Wind Integration& Transmission Study. Objectives.

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Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study Overview January 28 th Webinar

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  1. Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study Overview January 28th Webinar Dave Corbus National Wind Technology Center National Renewable Energy Lab

  2. Eastern Wind Integration& Transmission Study Objectives • Evaluate the power system impacts and transmission associated with increasing wind capacity to 20% and 30% of retail electric energy sales in the study area by 2024 ; • Impacts include operating due to variability and uncertainty of wind; reliability • Build upon prior wind integration studies and related technical work; • Coordinate with JCSP and current regional power system study work; • Produce meaningful, broadly supported results through a technically rigorous, inclusive study process.

  3. Region Definition Study area includes: • PJM • Midwest ISO • Mid-Continent Area Power Pool • Southwest Power Pool • TVA • New York ISO • ISO New England • Other interested parties

  4. Project Organization DOE Sponsor NREL Project Manager Technical Review Committee AWS Scientific Wind Modeling EnerNex Team EnerNex/MISO/Ventyx Project Team - Analysis Stakeholders

  5. Key Issues & Questions include • What system operational impacts and costs are imposed by wind generation variability and uncertainty? • What are the benefits from long distance transmission that accesses multiple wind resources that are geographically diverse? • What are the benefits from long distance transmission that move large quantities of remote wind energy to urban markets? • How do remote wind resources compare to local wind resources?

  6. Key Issues & Questions include • How much does geographical diversity help reduce system variability and uncertainty? • What is the role and value of wind forecasting? • What benefit does balancing area cooperation or consolidation bring to wind variability and uncertainty management? • How does wind generation capacity value affect reliability?

  7. Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP) • The 2007/2008 Joint Coordinated System plan included MISO, PJM, SPP,TVA, MAPP, NYISO,ISO-NE plus other interested parties • The JCSP performed a long term planning study incorporating both economic (2024) and reliability (2018) analysis of system performance for the combined JCSP areas • The EWITS uses some of the model assumptions including the generation expansion (EGEAS modeling) • Final summary report in progress

  8. Wind Integration Methods & Best Practices Capture system characteristics and response through operational simulations and modeling; Capture wind deployment scenario geographic diversity through synchronized weather simulation; Match with actual historic utility load and load forecasts; Use actual large wind plant power statistical data for short-term regulation and ramping; Examine wind variation in combination with load variations; Utilize wind forecasting best practice and combine wind forecast errors with load forecast errors; Examine actual costs independent of tariff design structure. Examine impacts of BA consolidation and fast markets.

  9. Mesoscale modeling Transmission Study Integration Study Key Tasks- Eastern Wind Integration & Transmission Study

  10. Key Tasks - Mesoscale Modeling • Identify wind sites • Develop high quality wind resource data sets for the wind integration study area • Mesoscale modeling • 3 years of time series data (2004-2006) • 10-minute data at 2 km spatial resolution • Develop wind power plant outputs

  11. Mesoscale Grids

  12. 579 GWs of Wind Sites from Wind Site Selection process for EWITS

  13. Offshore Wind • Great resource • Well correlated with load and close to load centers • More expensive!

  14. Deep Water Wind Turbine Development Current Technology

  15. Supply v. CF

  16. Size Distribution Maximum onshore plant sizes were normally distributed between 100 MW and 1000 MW Additional “mega” sites (>1000MW)

  17. Power Conversion Testing Validation Sites Approach • Power conversion takes into account • Turbine power curve for site IEC class • Air density, turbulence • Wake and non-wake losses • Time filtering to replicate the “spatial smoothing” of the output of a real wind plant

  18. Validation ExampleDiurnal Patterns

  19. Validation ExampleMean Ramps

  20. Mesoscale Output/Power Conversion 47.02225 -68.80990 DATE TIME 80M SPEED DIRECTION DENSITY TKE 20040101 0010 4.89790 270.09622 1.25625 0.03305 20040101 0020 4.94108 268.34360 1.25527 0.02336 20040101 0030 4.81025 267.33597 1.25509 0.01175 20040101 0040 4.89001 267.15210 1.25468 0.00649 20040101 0050 4.55865 265.43286 1.25415 0.00473 20040101 0100 4.70651 265.82401 1.25480 0.00252 20040101 0110 4.84289 269.14575 1.25461 0.00214 20040101 0120 4.85045 266.78668 1.25462 0.00247 20040101 0130 4.76209 266.21219 1.25440 0.00268 20040101 0140 4.74387 263.26474 1.25424 0.00220 20040101 0150 4.89790 260.24161 1.25384 0.00246 20040101 0200 4.93185 256.34119 1.25321 0.00351 20040101 0210 4.87496 252.86868 1.25324 0.00413 ….

  21. Why 20% and 30% Wind?

  22. Regional Wind Requirements

  23. Scenario Development and Siting • Four Different Scenarios • Three 20% and one 30% wind scenarios • Scenario that emphasizes development of local resources with lower capacity factors • Scenario that emphasizes high capacity factor wind development in the Midwest with larger transmission component • All of four scenarios require a lot of wind and transmission! • Some offshore wind required • NREL/AWS provided 700 GWs of wind plants and wind sites for the scenarios were picked from these • Scenario sites were selected from the “Superset” of 700 GWs of sites

  24. Four EWITS Scenarios • Scenario 1, 20% wind penetration – “Lowest Cost Wind”: Utilizes high quality wind resources in the Great Plans, with other development in the east where good wind resources exist. Total capacity in MISO, MAPP, and SPP is approximately 185 GW • Scenario 2, 20% wind penetration – “Hybrid, with Offshore”: Some wind generation in the Great Plains is moved east, with capacity increased in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Some offshore development in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

  25. Four EWITS Scenarios • Scenario 3, 20% wind penetration – “Load-weighted Wind Development, Aggressive Offshore”: More wind is moved east toward load centers, necessitating even more utilization of off-shore resources. • Scenario 4, 30% wind penetration – “Aggressive On- and Off-shore”. Meeting the 30% energy penetration level uses a substantial amount of the higher quality wind resource. Lots of offshore is needed to reach the target energy level, and the capacity in MISO, MAPP, and SPP goes back up to 188 GW.

  26. EWITS Scenario Installed Wind Capacity by Region

  27. 20% wind Scenarios

  28. 30% Wind Scenario

  29. Scenarios and Siting Things to keep in mindduring the study • How much capacity can be reasonably exported (imported) at each area? • Assume constant energy between scenarios rather than constant number of plants: • Typical Great Plains capacity factor/Ohio C.F.= 45/30 = 1.5 • ~Roughly 2 MW of wind in Great Plains produces the same energy as 3 MW of wind in Ohio.

  30. EWITS Scenario 1 Generation Siting

  31. EWITS Scenario 2 Generation Siting

  32. EWITS Scenario 3 Generation Siting

  33. EWITS Scenario 4 Generation Siting

  34. Key Tasks- Develop Transmission Plan • JCSP reference future and 20% wind and 30% wind scenarios • Builds on JCSP work • Analyze different transmission alternatives for different wind scenarios • 765 AC and HVDC • High in-state wind versus high wind exports

  35. Develop Preliminary Transmission Plans • Use JCSP 20% wind scenario transmission overlay as the starting point to develop initial plans for EWITS four scenarios • Determine type, size and route of transmission lines • Determine costs and land requirements • Determine potential substation and DC terminal locations

  36. Scenario 120% Lowest Cost Wind

  37. Scenario 1 Constrained Case Annual Gen Weighted LMP

  38. Scenario 1 Constrained Case Annual Load Weighted LMP

  39. Scenario 1 Generation Difference: Copper Sheet Minus Constrained Cases

  40. Scenario 1 Top 24 Interfaces with Largest Annual Energy Difference

  41. Joint Coordinated System Plan Overlay – 20% Wind Scenario

  42. 4. Wind Integration Study Evaluate operating impacts Regulation Load Following Unit Commitment Evaluate reliability impacts (ELCC/LOLP) EWITS is first and foremost a wind integration study What are the integration costs and issues for 20 and 30% wind? How is other generation affected?

  43. Production Simulation Methodology Case comparison approach Actual wind vs. “ideal” wind Objective is to determine relative value of two resources providing same amount of annual/daily energy Issues Approach is established as best way to accomplish objective Not been attempted on this scale before

  44. Hourly Modeling Objective Chronological simulation of operational planning and power system operation Mimic Day-ahead unit commitment and scheduling based on load and wind generation forecasts Real-time operation with actual wind and load How do we simulate the Eastern Interconnection in 2024? Period-ahead planning (e.g. day-ahead unit commitment) Real-time operations (at minimum of hourly granularity) Operational structures Conventional control areas? Existing markets?

  45. Hourly Modeling PROMOD capabilities Reserve modeling Types Treatment (e.g. variable by hour?) Commit based on forecast, simulation based on actual quantities? Features for treatment of uncertainty? Modeling Transactions Day-ahead and “real time” Relevant program features

  46. Intra-Hour Impacts Objective Determine operating reserves required to manage control area with wind generation Feed requirements forward into hourly modeling Variability of wind generation adds to existing variability, increasing requirements for RT ancillary services Analytical approach Based on high-resolution (< 10 min) load and wind generation data

  47. LOLP and ELCC Analysis • Objective • Determine contribution of wind generation to Eastern Interconnection reliability • Assess reliability value of transmission only(?) • Issues • Transmission overlay could have significant impact on existing LOLE zones • Transmission will serve as capacity resources for some zones; may make some zones very reliable, such that ELCC of wind would be minimal • Predecessor tasks • Requires PROMOD to determine new area import limits • GE MARS model to be developed from PowerBase • Resource constraints may necessitate staging

  48. Reliability Analysis GE MARS Monte-Carlo based chronological reliability simulation Now in use at MISO Objectives Calculate ELCC for wind generation based on comparative LOLE cases Zone-by-zone basis Input data Network, resource, and load data input developed from PowerBase Wind as load modifier

  49. Downloading EWITS Wind Datahttp://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/ Download Time-series Data All data (using ftp site) EWITS ftp site (ftp://ftp2.nrel.gov/pub/ewits) Instructions for ftp Data for individual sites using interactive website EWITS Interactive Website Frequently-Asked Questions (FAQs) about time-series data EWITS FAQ

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