Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 February 19, 2015

2. Class Information and News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 • Record of course • Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • Tuesday, February 24th, Dr. Frank Behrendt Seminar "The German Energiewende- Roadmap to Germany's Energy System 2050” Tuesday, February 24, 2015, 10:00 AM to 11:30 AM, Ross School of Business, BlauAuditorium, 1st Floor

3. Resources and Recommended Reading • International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/ works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. • Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends. • Frequently Asked Questions • The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link) • This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth • Throughout the presentation

4. Resources and Recommended Reading • Rood Blogs • We Like to Burn Things • All the Oil We Want • No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate Policy • Earthquakes and Climate Change

5. Next Lecture: Germany Energy Policy • Dr. Frank Behrendt Seminar "The German Energiewende - Roadmap to Germany's Energy System 2050” • IEA on Renewables • Record German Renewables • Germany and China on Renewables

6. Outline: Class 13, Winter 2015 • Energy Supply • Energy Consumption • Economic sectors • Agriculture • End use • Analysis: Kaya Identity

7. World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 * Source: International Energy Agency 2005 megaton oil equivalent

8. Update from IEA • CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013 • 1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels • 2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels • Emissions by category • 83% energy production • 8% agricultural • 6% industrial processes • 3% waste

9. 2011 Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions 13 111 Megaton oil equivalent Other 18% Portion of Energy Production Coal 29% Gas 21% Oil 32% Gas 20% Portion of CO2 Emission Oil 35% 1% Coal 44% Source: International Energy Agency CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption 2013 Coal Top Source for Electricity, WSJ, 2014

10. World Carbon Emissions • CO2 emissions arise from: • Cement production (~5 %) • Deforestation (~20 %) • Fossil fuel use (~75 %) 75%

11. CO2 source: Deforestation • Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: • It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions • It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial times. GtC Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere

12. IEA Plots of Energy Balance and Use • IEA Statistics • IEA Energy Balances • IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram • IEA Glossary: for Balances

13. Trend of fossil fuel useIEA on Renewables • In ‘business-as-usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally. International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

14. Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes • Hydrogen Fuel Cells • Renewables and Renewable Portfolios • U.S. Trade and Solar Panels • Wind Tax Credit • Biofuels • Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar, Algae • Fracking • Natural Gas Displacing Coal • Methane Leakage from Fracking

15. Emissions from economic sectors • These numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time • Details at end of presentation

16. Emissions from economic sectors • Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture) • Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc. • Transportation: cars, planes, ships US energy use by sector EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

17. Agriculture: A different slice • This is a very complex way to look at the problem • (Some) Details at end of presentation

18. Agriculture: A different slice • UN Food and Agriculture Organization • Livestock’s Long Shadow • Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Livestock and Climate Change • Rood Blogs • Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture • We Are What We Eat • How Much Does It Cost?

19. Agriculture • Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in industrialized countries. • Half of used energy and direct CO2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) • BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change. • Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

20. Agriculture: Livestock • Responsible for ~18 % of CO2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N2O and CH4)  Same share as entire US! • 9 % of world CO2 emissions • Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer • Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) • 37 % of world CH4 emissions • Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) • Animal manure • 65 % of N2O • Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N2O emission

21. End use • Details at end of presentation

22. World CO2 emissions by fuel and end use Energy consumption by end use • The three main end uses of fossil fuel are: • Electric power plants (~40 % of CO2 emissions) • Transportation (~23 % of CO2 emissions) • Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO2 emissions) • So ~40 % CO2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels Socolow and Pacala , 2006

23. Analysis: Kaya Identity

24. Kaya Identity • Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • Roger Pielke, Junior • The Climate Fix Book • The Climate Fix Lecture • The Climate Fix Lecture Slides • Fallacy of Magical Solutions

25. Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

26. Context: Growth

27. Mainstream approach – targets and timetables From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

28. Where do emissions come from? People Engage in economic activity that Uses energy from Carbon emitting generation P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Population GDP per person Energy intensity of the economy Carbon intensity of energy Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

29. What tools do we have to reduce emissions? Factor Lever Approach to Policy P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE Population management Limit generation of wealth Do same or more with less energy Generate energy with less emissions Population GDP per person Energy intensity Carbon intensity Less people Smaller economy Increase efficiency Switch energy sources Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ------ ---- ---- P GDP TE GDP Technology From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

30. So why has energy consumption increased so much? • GDP/person is considered the “societal success” • Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/person. Energy use = (population)*(GDP/person) *(energy/unit GDP)

31. Pielke Jr. argues • The need for technology to make solutions possible. • Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative • Must go • From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap • To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

32. Climate Change Relationships • We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change. CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

33. Context: Energy and Climate Change • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY POPULATION CLIMATE CHANGE SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

34. Summary: Class 13, Winter 2015 • Energy Supply • Energy Consumption • Economic sectors • Agriculture • End use • Analysis: Kaya Identity

35. Summary: Class 13, Winter 2015 • Energy Supply • Energy Consumption • Economic sectors • Agriculture • End use • Analysis: Kaya Identity

36. Outline: Class 13, Winter 2015 • Energy Supply • Energy Consumption • Economic sectors • Agriculture • End use • Analysis: Kaya Identity

37. Appendix: Supplementary Slides • Details on coal, oil and natural gas • Details on sectors • Details on agriculture • Details on end use • Interesting and complex summary graphic from Department of Energy • Air quality and aerosols • Responses to manage emissions

38. In what forms do we consume energy? • Fossil fuels: • Coal • Oil • Natural gas • Other: • Nuclear • Hydro • Renewables (mostly biomass) • ‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

39. Energy sources: Coal • Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels • Accounts for ~45% of world CO2emissions (2013, IEA) • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are very high

40. Energy sources: Oil • Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per unit energy. • Accounts for ~35 % of world CO2emissions (2013, IEA) • Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves of conventional oil are small number of decades • After that, unconventional oil (fracking, tar sands etc.) many decades • U.S. dependency on imported oil has been a major national security concern Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and “peak oil”

41. Energy sources: Natural gas • Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~20% of world CO2emissions (2013, IEA) • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves with fracking are large Methane Leakage and Fracking

42. Details on Sectors

43. U.S. energy consumption by sector Transportation sector • Sector with fastest growing CO2 emissions in US • Dominated by oil and road transport • Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

44. U.S. energy consumption by sector Residential and Commercial: Buildings • Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.) • Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating • Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use. EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

45. U.S. energy consumption by sector Industrial sector • Includes mining, refining, factories, etc. • The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed. • Also includes agriculture… U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

46. Details on agriculture

47. Agriculture: Livestock • 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: • “The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” • Important economic sector: • Employs > billion people (mostly poor) • Occupies 30 % of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production • 33 % of arable land for feed production

48. Agriculture: Livestock • Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation • 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. • Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %. • Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) • Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

49. Details of End Use

50. Energy consumption by end use: Electricity • Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels • One third from hydro and nuclear power