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23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva

Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO. 23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva. Cigré’s International Colloquium. Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid. Security of supply. Competitiveness. Climate change.

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23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva

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  1. Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO 23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva Cigré’s International Colloquium

  2. Sustainability& NewEnergyParadigm • Role ofElectricity • RenewablePower • Role oftheGrid

  3. Security of supply Competitiveness Climate change SUSTAINABLE ENERGY The Key Drivers OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY Business as Usual is unsustainable TOTAL COST OF ENERGY CO2 EMISSIONS

  4. SECURITY OF SUPPLY Primary energy sources Adequacy of supply systems

  5. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

  6. More EnergyEFFICIENCYisneeded TheSleepingGiant ….

  7. TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves Source: BGR • Priceshighly influenced by numerous factors (extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...) • Production’s growth might stop in 10-15 years

  8. TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas(2007) Source: BGR • Priceslinked to oil • High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT) • Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil)

  9. TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL • Abundantandworldwide distributed Proven reserves (10 biggest producers) Source: WEC, SER (2007) Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate • Relatively stable price • According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030 • But ....a major CO2 emitter

  10. The traditional fossil energy resources are limited Alternatives are required ….

  11. ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World EUA: American Clean Energy And Security Act European Union: Energy and Climate Package G8, IEA Outlook, COP

  12. «Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially. .... What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution» World Energy Outlook 2008- International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08

  13. The New ENERGY PARADIGM • Energy Efficiency • Endogenous and Renewable Energy Sources and other Low-Carbon technologies

  14. Sustainability & NewEnergyParadigm • Role ofElectricity • RenewablePower • Role oftheGrid

  15. Demand Side • LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE(electricity savings) • MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY(more efficient processes; new uses) Industry PHEV Rail transport Household Appliances Motor Systems Heat Pumps Lighting

  16. Supply Side Towards low-carbon power generation and new technologies in electricity supply Fossil Fuels Low-Carbon Tech. Renewables

  17. Energy Efficiency (demand side) Renewable Power (supply side) + Security of Supply (less dependent on energy imports) + Environment Protection(less CO2 emissions) Electricity Sinergies + Sustainable Energy

  18. Sustainability & NewEnergyParadigm • Role ofElectricity • RenewablePower • Role oftheGrid

  19. Key technologies:Hydro powerWind energyBiomass Solar thermal powerPhotovoltaic Renewable Power

  20. 1070*GW OF CAPACITY WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES SOLAR Power POTENTIAL 2007 – installedcapacity * IncludingLargeHydro (830 MW) WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL Source: NASA In any given hour, more energy from the sun reaches Earth than is used by the whole human population in any given year Source: 3TIER

  21. Intermitency Non-Dispatchable Power Need for STORAGE to: WIND Power INTERMITENCY • Decouple the Load (consumption) and the Generation (renewable power) diagrams • Reduce The Risk of Loss of renewable resources

  22. 800 600 400 200 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 STORAGE - HYDRO Power Wind / Hydro complementarity 16.Dec.2006 Wind Power declined from 600 MW (during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours MW ... Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines

  23. STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars Low-Carbon Electricity replaces Fossil Fuels in the Transportation sector • Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used • Zero emissions at the point of use • Simple, silent, and affordable to operate • They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System Portugal

  24. EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020

  25. www.energyfromportugal.com PORTUGAL A case of success 43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)

  26. Wind Power Hydro Power Other renewables • Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%) • Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement • Implement the National Hydro Plan • Promote a diversified policy on other RES • 250 MW biomass • 750 MW PV solar • 250 MW wave • 100 MW biogas • Innovative policy on micro-generation (650 MW by 2015) • Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years • Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020 • Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters Complementary wind/hydro policy • Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015 • Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps • Energy efficient buildings policy • National Plan for electric car roll out Energy Efficiency

  27. PORTUGAL’S WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY Source: MEI

  28. NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975) Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database

  29. Sustainability & NewEnergyParadigm • Role ofElectricity • RenewablePower • Role oftheGrid

  30. More RENEWABLE ENERGY Grid Expansion/Reinforcement Huge Investments • New lines • Reinforcement of existing lines; • New substations (receiving wind) • More transformation power • More reactive energy compensation capacity • Control and command equipment modernization In the future: One-way transmission systems (from power plants to consumers) or … a different model?

  31. SMART GRIDS The new Grid model paves the way for the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-generation, …) and “consumer side” applications (demand response, home made energy, …) Source: “Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future”

  32. SMART GRIDS BENEFITS “Updating the way we get our electricity by staring to build a new SMART GRID that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy.” U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009 • New uses of the electric grid (operation and “consumer side” applications) • More distributed generation can be integratedwith the grid • Mass-scale renewablesintegration • Consumer incentive for efficiency

  33. ... more GRID More SUSTAINABLE energy … • more ELECTRICITY(in the global energy mix) … more RENEWABLE energy(increased operational flexibility) …

  34. Tomorrow’s Energy Today’s Challenge

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