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Mitigation System

Mitigation System. National Climate Change Response Policy 26 May 2015. Overview. Greenhouse Gas Inventory MPA summary Mitigation System Supporting Projects. GHGI – Energy as proportion of overall emissions. South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential Analysis.

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Mitigation System

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  1. Mitigation System National Climate Change Response Policy 26 May 2015

  2. Overview • Greenhouse Gas Inventory • MPA summary • Mitigation System • Supporting Projects

  3. GHGI – Energy as proportion of overall emissions

  4. South Africa’s Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential Analysis

  5. Mitigation Potential Analysis - Objectives 1. Project national greenhouse gas emissions into future 2.Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities and present marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), showing costs and greatest technical potential for emissions reduction from different technologies 3. Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the identified mitigation options; multi criteria analysis 4. Develop emission reduction pathways

  6. Subsectors

  7. MITIGATION POTENTIAL

  8. PROGRESS TO DATE cont... Mitigation (emission reduction):overall approach • Assess mitigation potential and define desired emission reduction outcomes; • Use of a mix of mitigation policies and measures, including using the market (Carbon Tax); • Formulation of mitigation plans for sectors and sub-sectors, and monitoring and evaluation. South Africa’s GHG Mitigation Potential Analysis • Comprehensive analysis of mitigation potential of key economic sectors (Energy, Industry, Transport, Waste, Agriculture, Forestry and Land use (AFOLU); • The last comprehensive modelling to develop mitigation scenarios in the South African economy was the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios(LTMS). SECRET

  9. SUBSECTORS SECRET

  10. SOUTH AFRICA'S GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS - OBJECTIVES • Project national greenhouse gas emissions into future; • Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities and present marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs), showing costs and greatest technical potential for emissions reduction from different technologies; • Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the identified mitigation options; multi criteria analysis; • Develop emission reduction pathways • Set of reduction trajectories over time, which is technologically achievable; • Pathway merely identifies what is technically possible without providing a detailed description of how that outcome would be achieved. SECRET

  11. PROJECTING GHG EMISSIONS • “Bottom up” approach: models constructed for each subsector; • The projection uses historic emissions from the Draft Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) update (2010): • Fuel activity data from GHGI; • Electricity consumption data from DoE Energy Balances; • Emission sources which are not included in the current GHGI were not included in projections due to a lack of data; • GDP growth assumptions tied to the National Development Plan (moderate growth to 2050 = 4.2%); • Sensitivity analysis based on low growth (3.8%) & high growth (5.4%). • Reference Case: 2000 – 2050: assumes no mitigation: • “Without Measures” (WOM): 556 MtCO2e in 2010, reaching 906 MtCO2e by 2030, and 1,695 MtCO2e by 2050; • “With Existing Measures” (WEM) - impacts of existing policy (e.g. IRP 2010) and measures; 27 MtCO2e lower in 2010; 102 MtCO2e lower in 2050. SECRET

  12. EMISSIONS PROJECTION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS • National GHG emissions under the reference case WEM projection, showing high and low growth compared to medium growth SECRET

  13. COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS – MACC 2020 • All measures represent savings • Construction of passive buildings with improved thermal design offers the largest single mitigation potential with the lowest marginal abatement cost SECRET

  14. Power Sector

  15. MACC 2030 The total potential abatement for 2030 (137 MtCO2e), and the largest part of this is delivered by nuclear energy (53 MtCO2e) followed by coal power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) (8MtCO2e)

  16. NATIONAL

  17. National MACC 2020 The MACC illustrates that 37.8% of the total mitigation estimate for 2020 (39.7 MtCO2e) can be achieved through implementing mitigation measures with a negative marginal abatement cost

  18. Towards a national mitigation system

  19. Elements of the mitigation system • Carbon Budget • Pollution Prevention Plans (Mitigation Plans) • Carbon Tax • Monitoring and Evaluation

  20. Carbon Budgets • Means of regulating emission of greenhouse gases • Greenhouse gas emission allowance • Cbudget system: • Budget for each company • Reporting system • Compliance process • Phased approach: • First phase will run from 2016 to 2020 (5 years) • Second phase – 2021 onwards (5 year periods)

  21. Supporting Projects • Mitigation technology plan: assess opportunities and barriers for the development and large-scale deployment of the key mitigation technologies - DST leading • National Employment vulnerability assessment: assess impact on jobs, by sector – EDD leading • Socio-economic impact: assess impact of mitigation work

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