Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Deciding Adaptation Measures for Floods in Belgium

1. CCI-HYDR - Climate change impact on hydrological extremes along rivers and urban drainage systems ADAPT – Towards an integrated tool for deciding about adaptation measures – case study: floods Follow-up committee meeting 12 November, Uccle

2. Overview • Derivation of potential climate change scenarios for Belgium • Statistical analysis of trends and cycles in rainfall, evapotranspiration and flow series • Final selection climate change scenarios for Belgium • Impact modelling along rivers and urban drainage systems • Flood risk modelling • Identification of adaptation scenarios • Modelling the effects of adaptation measures • Evaluating adaptation measures CC scenarios CCI-HYDR Occurrence of low and high flows ADAPT Adaptation to high flows

3. CCI-HYDR project - content

4. CCI-HYDR project - questions

5. Adapt – project: preliminary results Dender case • Social flood impact

6. Dender case High RT 100 Low RT 100 Current RT 100

7. Social hot spots

8. Social risk modelling – SFI tool Exposure and flood characteristics Social flood impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability SFI = E x Vp/Ac* * Based on Hilhorst 2004

9. Indicators of social flood impact

10. Indicators of social flood impact • Exposure • Location of houses by means of Cadmap and land use maps

11. Indicators of social flood impact

12. Indicators of social flood impact Adaptive capacity of society • Non-technical measures • Availability or resources and distribution across the population • Institutional structure • Human capital • Social capital • Risk spreading processes • Information • Perception of people Data gathered by interviews, policy documents and media

13. Social risk modelling • Weighting • Flood characteristics: water level is most important • Vulnerability: equal weights • Adaptive capacity: equal weights • State of affairs • Flood characteristics: in progress • Vulnerability: finalized • Adaptive capacity: in progress

14. Social flood impact knowledge table

15. GIS output Flood map Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Buildings

16. Social impact map

17. Output: number of affected people per impact categorie Geraardsbergen and Ninove

18. Scenarios • What is a scenario? • An image of the future that are neither predictions nor forecasts but an alternative image of how the future might unfold. (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) • Why using scenarios? • Taking socio-economic change into account • To deal with uncertainty • To raise awareness

19. Socio-economic scenarios • Lieven aanvullen? • Narrative storylines: IPCC • Containing key elements of socio-economic change • Technology • Governance • Social and political values • Demography • Economy • Estimating parameters (data?) • Ecological vulnerability • Social vulnerability • Economic vulnerability

20. Stakeholder participation • Who? • Decisionmakers at all levels, experts, water managers, interest groups and citizens • Why? • Increase social support • Take into accounts stakeholder knowledge • How in the Adapt project? • Which measures are feasible in the area? (interviews with water managers) • Which measures are acceptable? (interviews with decisionmakers, public officers, experts and focus groups with interest groups and citizens) • Which criteria are most preferred? (interviews)

21. ADAPT project - questions