Toward Integrative Science at NCAR: Building Links Between the Climate and Ecosystem Impact Research Communities

1. Toward Integrative Science at NCAR: Building Links Between the Climate and Ecosystem Impact Research Communities Jim Hurrell Director Climate and Global Dynamics Division jhurrell@ucar.edu Climate and Ecosystem Community Planning Meeting November 2-3, 2005 Boulder, CO

2. The Grand Challenge To understand and be able to project the effects of global climate variability and change on ecosystems, the goods and services ecosystems provide, the drivers and consequences of human responses to ecosystem variability and change, and ecosystem links to the climate system.

3. Goals of the Proposal • Identify and enhance collaborative opportunities between climate, • ecosystem and climate impact scientists • Use and link tools such as the CCSM, high-resolution ocean models and • marine ecosystem and foodweb models • Trace the linkages from variations in modes of climate variability to changes • in the physical ocean and changes in marine nutrients, primary producers • and the higher trophic levels that support human fisheries • Ultimately to assess possible impacts on the characteristics and dynamics • of those fisheries • Position NCAR as a major resource for the marine ecological and fishery • management communities

4. Why NCAR? • NCAR has a base of interdisciplinary expertise to frame the study: climate and • ecosystem modeling, and fisheries and marine impacts and policy studies • But the study is beyond the scope of NCAR alone • A key feature is the systematic collaboration of GLOBEC scientists and policy • professionals, the interests and emphases of which resonate with those found • at NCAR, including the development of Earth System Models

5. Potential links • Connection between NCAR and GLOBEC modeling efforts • Flexibility of CCSM • GLOBEC models as alternative modules to existing CCSM ocean models • Continued progress on embedding regional scales models • Analysis of observational and model data to further document and understand • modal variability and the associated ecological responses • Simulation of major modes of variability an emphasis of CCSM • IPCC FAR runs thus of interest to both climate and marine ecosystem communities • Reanalysis of long records from fisheries in light of recent knowledge gained • on climate modes and their role in climate change • Synergism between retrospective analyses of GLOBEC data and climate analysis research • Analysis of the utility of CCSM and GLOBEC model results for managers, • policy makers and economists, e.g. • Can the assessment of fisheries stocks be improved with such model results? • Can fishery managers design their decision making, monitoring and enforcement processes to promote socially beneficial use of such information?

6. Goals: The Initial Planning Meeting • Produce a list of prioritized challenges that can be best (and perhaps only) be • addressed through such collaborative efforts • Identify a (short) list of potential pilot projects that would demonstrate why this • effort should be continued and expanded • Internal ecosystem dynamics • North Atlantic basin scale • Pacific • Warm and cold epochs • ENSO • Tuna (end-to-end approach) • Coral Reefs • Short white papers being developed. Will include • Science to be addressed, including necessity of linking climate, ecosystem • science and management • Tools (models, datasets) • Research plan

7. International Workshop Late summer or fall 2006 (at NCAR) • GOALS • Build bridges from physical climate through to marine resource policy • Identify the role of coupled modeling and coupled climate-ecosystem • models in building those bridges • Identify goals for improved coupled (climate-marine ecosystem) models • Provide a focused activity linking the physical, biological and social • science communities together • Set the stage for an ASP colloquium in 2007 • Graduate and post-doctoral students • Tutorials in using CCSM

8. Agenda Wednesday, November 2, 2005 12:30 Shuttle leaves Millennium Harvest House to NCAR 1:00 –– 1:15pm Welcome (James Hurrell) 1:15 –– 1:40pm Overview of Ecosystem/Climate Integration (David Schimel) 1:40 –– 2:05pm CCSM Overview (James Hurrell) 2:05 –– 2:30pm Coupled Variability in CCSM (Mike Alexander) 2:30 –– 2:55pm Marine Ecosystems (Zach Powell) 2:55 –– 3:20pm Regime Shifts (Brad DeYoung) 3:20 –– 3:45pm Links to Policy Activities (Kathleen Miller) 3:45 ––4:15pm BREAK 4:15 –– 5:15pm Participant Introductions Zach Powell 5:15 –– 6:30pm Plenary – Organization of Working Groups Cisco Werner 6:45pm Shuttle leaves NCAR 7:30pm Group Dinner at Dolan’s (Local Restaurant)

9. Agenda Thursday, November 3, 2005 8:00 Shuttle leaves Millennium Harvest House to NCAR 8:30 –– 9:45am Topical Working Groups 9:45 –– 10:15am BREAK 10:15 –– 11:15am Working Groups to Identify Pilot Projects 11:15 –– 1:00pm Plenary – Lunch Provided