Climate Change, Metropolitan Coastal Cities and Looming Law Order Problems

1. Climate Change, Metropolitan Coastal Cities and Looming Law Order Problems Prof. B.K.P. Sinha, IFS (Retd.) Advisor, Amity School of Natural Resources and Sustainable Development Email: balkrishanps@amity.edu

2. Contents • Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Metropolitan Cities • Climate change impacts cascading down to law order problems like increased crimes and conflicts in coastal cities • Approach to regulation

3. Coastal Metropolitan Cities • Many of our largest and fastest-growing cities are located on the coast and therefore vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. • Most of India’s 8,000-km-long coastal regions are low-lying and densely populated,  • These cities form the engine of India’s economy, including Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Goa, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram.

5. Climate Change Impacts for Coastal Metropolitan Cities • Sea level rise - greater erosion and flooding pressure. • Salt water intrusion to groundwater supplies, threatens the quality and quantity of freshwater • Frequent severe windstorms; • Intense, and sometimes lethal, flash floods.

6. Contd. • Disease outbreaks due to floods and temperature fluctuations • High humidity will lead to increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases • Loss of income due to a surge in diseases and related absenteeism • Migration will further create competition and conflicts for food, space, and employment opportunities

7. Impending Law and Order Problems • Changing climate will further increase migration rates. • Conflict arising from competition between different groups due to scarcity of resources like clean drinking water and food. • Conflicts related to cultural differences and ethnic causes • Statutory level to provide for basic facilities, • Tax payer who may resist or try to conceal the income. • Cultural, social and geographical group will lead to frequent clashes and increased crimes.

8. Contd. • Unemployment among migrant group may result into further increase in crime due to lower rates of engagements in the economy. • Basic goods and services shall increase their prices, leading to inflation. • Large scale shortages will lead to illegal markets for basic food stuffs. • These illegal markets will be run by those willing to use threats or actual violence.

9. Increased Migration: A Nightmare for Law Enforcing Machinery • Increased migration to big cities resulting into despair. • The process of losing a home and sense of place, being vulnerable and without shelter or focus while undertaking a journey to uncertainty will all add to desperate action.

10. Insurance Risks • Increase in the variability of weather systems might pose problem for insurance companies. • Insurer will need to pay more premium and situations of exploitations by insurance companies in order to increase profits might gain ground.

11. Protests and Movements • The future will also witness several types of social movements in favour or against the climate change. • There is strong probability that in future many of the environmental cases are increasingly framed using average of climate change. • Climate change may be taken in litigation proceedings or it might be employed to non court settings for example protest as a direct course of action.

12. Approach to Regulation • Climate change might affect our approach to regulation. • Will regulatory mechanism move away from command and control techniques towards more market oriented mechanism?

13. Thanks for your attention