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Peak Oil, Petrol Prices and Climate Change: Preparing Victoria for the Future 27 th July 2007

Peak Oil, Petrol Prices and Climate Change: Preparing Victoria for the Future 27 th July 2007. ‘Forced’ Car Ownership – Links to Transit and Accessibility. Zed Senbergs and Graham Currie Institute of Transport Studies, Monash University. Agenda. Background Approach FCO and Travel

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Peak Oil, Petrol Prices and Climate Change: Preparing Victoria for the Future 27 th July 2007

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  1. Peak Oil, Petrol Prices and Climate Change: Preparing Victoria for the Future27th July 2007 ‘Forced’ Car Ownership – Links to Transit and Accessibility Zed Senbergs and Graham CurrieInstitute of Transport Studies, Monash University

  2. Agenda • Background • Approach • FCO and Travel • Links to Transit and Accessibility

  3. This project examines ‘forced’ car ownership in Outer Melbourne • Aims to understand if ‘forced’ car ownership is occurring in Melbourne • Examined travel behaviour and links to public transport/accessibility Full Findings Being Presented at: • Currie, G. and Z. Senbergs (2007). Exploring Forced Car Ownership in Metropolitan Melbourne. Australasian Transport Research Forum. Melbourne Australia.

  4. Australian research has identified ‘transport poverty’ as a critical issue “Transport poverty occurs when a household is forced to consume more travel costs than it can reasonably afford, especially costs relating to motor car ownership and usage” (Gleeson and Randolph 2002)

  5. UK Research calls this ‘forced’ car ownership and identifies critical features “’Voluntary’ car ownership means that there are adequate substitutes for gaining access to facilities, and that the car is not a necessity. Conversely, ‘forced’ car ownership means that there are no alternatives. In rural areas, there is clear evidence of ‘forced’ car ownership, since cars are owned at lower-income levels and are seen to be one of the items of household expenditure that cannot be foregone” (Banister 1994) Key Features: • low income, high car ownership, lack of alternative transport options, need to travel

  6. Agenda • Background • Approach • FCO and Travel • Links to Transit and Accessibility

  7. ‘New’ cars cost over $130/week each to run • The NRMA (2006) define the following average weekly running costs for a new car: • Light car average: $133.52 • Small car average: $164.43 • Medium car average: $209.86 • Large car average: $258.04. • Less than this for cars without depreciation/ renewal included

  8. FCO Households definition – income <$500/week and running 2+ cars in Outer Melbourne • Rationale for Criteria: • Low Income <$500/week • Running 2+ cars - transport costs can represent as high as 50% of income • Outer Melbourne – Low/Zero public transport, long distances to activity centres/ work

  9. Over 20,000 FCO HH were identified, 27% more than Zero car HH’s Source: Currie, G. and Z. Senbergs (2007). Exploring Forced Car Ownership in Metropolitan Melbourne. Australasian Transport Research Forum. Melbourne Australia.

  10. FCO represents 23% of all Outer Melbourne low income households Number of Low Income HH with 2+ Cars Percentage of Low Income HH with 2+ Cars Number of Low Income HH With 2+ Cars Percentage of Low Income HH With 2+ Cars Sections of Melbourne Sections of Melbourne Source: ABS 2001 Census Source: Currie, G. and Z. Senbergs (2007). Exploring Forced Car Ownership in Metropolitan Melbourne. Australasian Transport Research Forum. Melbourne Australia.

  11. Agenda • Background • Approach • FCO and Travel • Links to Transit and Accessibility

  12. FCO households are dominated by car and travel 45% more than Middle/Inner low income groups Key Findings - FCO Trips • 80% trips by car • PT share V. small • Ratio Car pax to driver trips is 63% - much less for higher income groups • Walking a significant share (14%) Vkms • Ratio of car driver to car pax Vkms is 0.54 for low income • Its 0.44 for high income Implication • FCO HH make 45% more travel by car than Middle Melbourne low income households Source: Currie, G. and Z. Senbergs (2007). Exploring Forced Car Ownership in Metropolitan Melbourne. Australasian Transport Research Forum. Melbourne Australia.

  13. Agenda • Background • Approach • FCO and Travel • Links to Transit and Accessibility

  14. Share of FCO HH are much higher in Fringe locations Source: Currie, G. and Z. Senbergs (2007). Exploring Forced Car Ownership in Metropolitan Melbourne. Australasian Transport Research Forum. Melbourne Australia.

  15. FCO Distribution

  16. FCO Distribution – and Rail/PT Supply

  17. Modelling showed a viable link between transit service level and share of FCO

  18. FCO Distribution – and Activity Centres

  19. FCO Distribution

  20. Walk accessibility to activity centres also acts to reduce FCO…

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