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Climate Change

Climate Change. Scientific evidence , regulatory options , & global governance. US Global Change Research Program 11 January 2013. Draft Climate Assessment Report: Climate change is no longer a future threat. It is happening now.

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change Scientificevidence, regulatoryoptions, & global governance

  2. US Global Change Research Program11 January 2013 • Draft Climate Assessment Report: • Climate change is no longer a future threat. • It is happening now. • National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee • 13 US government departments and agencies • Executive Office of POTUS oversees

  3. Science of climate change • It is global in it’s origin and effects • The effect is NOT marginal – potential impacts are extremely large and lethal • The risk and uncertainty associated are extremely large – the variance of the effect dominates the average effect • The impact is to be felt over the long run (hundreds if not thousands of years)

  4. Historic CO2 Concentrations • Antarctic ice cores going back 800,000 years • 180 ppm (during the colder ice ages) to • 280 ppm (during the warmer interglacial periods) • Last 10,000 years: 280 ppm • Lndustrial revolution about 1750: began rising • Mauna Loa 1958: 315 ppm • Mauna Loa 2013: 400 ppm • IPCC formula: 600 (800) ppm = average change of 3.3 C (4.5 C) & likely range 1.1 C (3 C ) to 5 C (6.8)

  5. Relationship between CO2 and temperature is not linear

  6. Slow moving disaster • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLlUgilKqms

  7. Thereisuncertainty (follow CO2 linesfromrightto gauge temp. probability)

  8. Global Population: Mind the gap

  9. Who will be in the developed country category? • In the past 100 years, only a small number of countries have moved from developing to developed categories. • This will change by 2100. • Two billion people countries will join the club: China and India • And another group with 100+ million will be there too: Mexico and Brazil

  10. Temperature and human impact

  11. Policy issues • Simplistic division of countries into developed & developing. • Categorize according to mitigation & adaptation capacity& vulnerability. • Analyze IPRs by technology type • Plant varieties • Clean energy technology • Don’t subsidize fossil fuel • Do subsidize clean energy • Ensure WTO rules allow

  12. Policy responses to climate change • Mitigation: reduce GHG emissions to limit the degree of climate change that will occur. • Adaptation: to respond to the effects of climate change that has occurred or will occur. • Both require technology diffusion. • Key issue: legal implications of unilateral responses to multilateral negotiation failure.

  13. Multilateral negotiation failureCauses • Consensus-based decision-making (WTO, UNFCC) • ‘Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ (WTO) • Rise of major emerging economies • Financial crisis in developed countries • North-South, North-North and South-South divides • (Disguised) protectionism, regulatory capture

  14. Multilateral negotiation failureConsequences • WTO consequences • Unilateral, bilateral or plurilateral responses • Regional TradeAgreements • UNFCCC/Kyotoconsequences • Unilateral, bilateral or plurilateral responses • Bilateral and Regional Agreements • Catalystsforaction • weatherevents (hurricanes, fires, droughts, floods) • unilateral measures

  15. Jurisdictional categories of policy responses • Scope of measures • subnational (NYC zoning; California cap-and-trade) • national (Australia carbon tax) • international (Kyoto) • Method of enacting measures • unilateral (no international agreement) • bilateral (EU-Australia) • Regional (EU emissions trading; aviation directive) • Multilateral (UNFCCC; WTO)

  16. Mitigation & Adaptation • Address different, interrelated risks. • Mitigationincreases chances of successful adaptation. • Mitigation: local costs, global (long-term) benefits. • Adaptation: localcosts and (short and medium-term) benefits. • Adaptation capacity & vulnerability differ, so costs & benefits do too. • Asymmetrical incentives to take mitigation and adaptation measures. • But can’t ignore global nature of the problem.

  17. Global governance • Means risk management via international processes, institutions and legal regimes. • Scientists identify and assess risks. • Leaders find ways to mitigate and adapt. • Mitigation and adaptation have financial and economic implications. • And require coordination of legal regulation, including international environmental law and international economic law. • Legal regulation implies international negotiation, avoiding regulatory capture and coordination between global institutions.

  18. Technology Transfer forMitigationand Adaptation • IPR issuesvarywithtechnology • Some cite debate overpatents and medicine • Mitigation: cleanenergytechnology • IPRs less likely to reduce access by increasing cost • Competingfirms & technologies reduce costs • US CVDs on solar panels = IPRs not sufficient entry barrier • Adaptation: biotechnology barriers to access • GM plantshavefewsubstitutes • 6 MNCs patented 77% of “climate ready crop genes” • Developing countries more vulnerable to impacts of climate change on agriculture and subsistence farmers • Terminator genesprevent replanting saved seed

  19. IPRs, tech transfer & North-South divide • In climate change negotiations: • developing countries seek $ for technology or relaxation of IPRs to lower tech cost • developed countries defend IPRs • Why? • concentration of technologies and IPRs in developed countries • prediction of disproportionate impacts of climate change on developing countries • BUT role of IPRs in tech transfer will be different in richer, scientifically-advanced developing nations than in poorer, less scientifically-advanced nations. • China: solar power • Brazil: biodiesels

  20. Real clean energy issues are… • Redirect fossil fuel subsidies to clean energy. • Reform WTO law to allow enviro subsidies. • Disseminate clean energy tech by removing barriers to: • trade in clean energy technologies (CVDs, ADDs & TRIMS) • foreign investment (BITs, GATS) • trade in services (GATS) • Use cap-and-trade to create tech demand. • SO2 example (below)

  21. Is cap-and-trade just hype or hope? • Design based on US SO2 market model. • US set up emission rules for the US Acid Rain Program in Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act. • Energy producers then had incentive to adopt cleaner technology. • Led to dramatic reduction of acid rain in certain region of the United States. • How dramatic?

  22. 1989-1991 2004-2007

  23. Current, future carbon markets

  24. China 2013 (#1 GHG emitter) • Had pledged to cut emissions intensity (Co2 emissions per economic unit) 45 % by 2020. • National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed absolute caps to separate emissions growth from economic growth. • Planned peak in overall emissions in 2025. • First pilot carbon-trading program Shenzhen: 638 companies (38% of city's total emissions). • Shenzhen is one of seven pilot carbon-trading programs set for 2013.

  25. International economiclaw& climate change regime • No inherent inconsistency BUT analysis is complex. • Right to regulate is constrained by international legal obligations: UNFCCC, WTO (GATT, TBT, TRIMS, SCM, AoA), RTAs, BITs, IPRs (TRIPS, UPOV). • Scope of right to regulate requires interpretation of international treaties. • Must interpret international treaties in light of each other’s content, to avoid conflicting interpretations. • Complexity of this legal analysis is additional obstacle to effective climate change regulation. • Relevant international economic law treaties not drafted with climate change in mind.

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