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Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013 Climate Change

Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013 Climate Change. Graham Kerr Group Manager, SAC Consulting. Scope of Presentation. Climate Change effects and impacts Agricultural emissions Scottish mitigation and adaptation Future CAP: Scottish debate so far

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Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013 Climate Change

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  1. Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013Climate Change Graham Kerr Group Manager, SAC Consulting

  2. Scope of Presentation • Climate Change effects and impacts • Agricultural emissions • Scottish mitigation and adaptation • Future CAP: Scottish debate so far • Future CAP: European debate so far • Future CAP for Scotland to address climate change challenges post 2013

  3. Global temperature rise:+2°C + 2 - 6°C + 1 - 2°C + 1 - 3°C + 1 - 3°C Source: Met Office

  4. Global temperature rise:+4°C + 8 - 16 °C + 5 - 7 °C + 3 - 8 °C + 4 - 8 °C Source: Met Office

  5. Change in Farming: Production Source: Cline 2007, http://maps.grid.no.go/graphic/projected-agriculture-in-2080-due-to-climate-change

  6. Change in farming : Rainfall Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate Winter Summer Source: UKCP09

  7. Change in Farming: Temperature Source: UKCP09

  8. Emissions from Agriculture MtCO2e Source: Defra 2007

  9. Emissions from Agriculture Source: NAEI 2010

  10. Emissions from Agriculture Agriculture contributes a disproportionate amount of high impact GHG Arable = 20% of global N2O, Livestock = 37% of global CH4 and 65% of N2O Agricultures share of non CO2 emissions is 47% Source: NAEI 2010

  11. Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Width = abatement potential Height = cost effectiveness 11

  12. Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Expensive options, small emission savings Cheap option, big emission savings Financial savings 12

  13. Using energy and fuels efficiently Developing renewable energy Locking carbon into the soil and vegetation Optimising the application of fertilisers and manures Optimising livestock management and storage of waste Farming for a Better Climate www.farmingforabetterclimate.org

  14. Climate Change Focus Farms

  15. Current Policy Initiatives • Climate Change Adaptation • Scottish Forestry Strategy • Scottish Land Use Strategy • Agriculture and Climate Change Stakeholder Group • Climate Change Research • PLANET Scotland • Scottish Greenhouse Gas Tool Project • SRDP • Grants and support • Skills Development Funds

  16. Pack Report: Environment Climate Change – the context • Freedom and flexibility • Sustainable food production with environmental benefits • Capital Grants • Wider uptake of environmental schemes • LEADER More stringent GAEC standards ruled out

  17. European Perspective • The aim of this Reform is also to improve the overall environmental performance of the CAP(Dacian Ciolos, January 2011) • Objective 2: Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action • Enhanced provision of public goods • Green growth through innovation • Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to allow response to climate change

  18. European Policy Options Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

  19. Policy Options • Voluntary agreements • Information Provision • Grants, subsidies, charges, levies and taxes • Mix of incentives and penalties • Links subsidies and incentives to environmental objectives • Carbon tax • Cap and trade • Price emissions and incentives to find efficient ways to lower emissions • Direct Regulation • Emissions standards or limits restricting/requiring certain farming practice

  20. Options?

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