The economic estimation of forest cover for Moscow region Ilya Stepanov 1 & Natalia Levitskaya 2

1. 1The Higher School of Economics, Pokrovskij bl., 11, 109028, Moscow Russia, e-mail: ilstepler@yandex.ru 2Centre for Forest Ecology and Production RAS, Profsoyuznaya str., 84/32, 117997, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: lipas99@mail.ru S - 45 799 km2 Population - 7 124 983Population density per km2 - 155,6 Forestation - more 40 % • The aim: • The economic assessment of the ecological functions of forest cover in the process of nature management based on the example of Moscow region. • Objectives: • Developing a method of estimating the forest cover by the means of Remote Sensing Data • Evaluating the change of forest cover at present (2000 and 2007) and comparing it to the results of pre - industrial period • Identifying the environmental potential of the area (the amount of carbon deposited), which is defined as the initial state of forest cover in pre-industrial period • Evaluating the changes in the amount of stored carbon between 2000 and 2007 and comparing it to the results of pre-industrial period • Calculating the damage in money terms from:- The loss of carbon stock and- The reduction of forest ability to clear the air Object – Moscow region The existence of forests is a most essential condition of the maintaining of the ecological functions of nature systems in the majority of the world regions. Biodiversity conservation is an important element of national forestry policy that embodies not only the resource but also the environmental focus (Millennium, 2005).      The forests around large cities are designed to perform crucial protective, recreational and sanitary functions. At present, forests of Moscow region are experiencing strong anthropogenic pressure: building of cottages, cutting down the forest, fires – all of these factors lead to reductions of the forest cover. Since the 16 century forest ecosystems of Moscow region have been already affected by severe anthropogenic changes.Zonal pine-broadleaf forests were replaced by derived narrow-leaf plantings, in which there were some changes in biodiversity, reduction of the resilience of ecosystems and the economic value of trees. The economic estimation of forest cover for Moscow regionIlya Stepanov1 & Natalia Levitskaya2 METHODS STEP 1 The estimation of forestation Model area from the image of MODIS, the resolution of 250 m STEP 2 Three patterns compared Scale levels of cartography Local Subregional Regional • Methods for ortho-correction. • Software: SagaGIS, Mapinfo, Microsoft Excel. • Statistical Methods (the regression model reflecting the dependence of the percentage of forest land and the amount of reflected solar radiation in two zones of the spectrum for different times of year). QuickBird, WorldView, Forest inventory Image ofLANDSAT, SPOT Image of MODIS The three static patterns of forest cover were compared: 2000 and 2007 year as well as the comparison of the present forest condition with its perfect model as for the period of pre-industrial development. This model assumes the existence of indigenous forest on the entire territory except for the rivers and their valleys, cinders (-5% of the total area). Expert-visual detection DIGITAL DECODING 2000 2007 Modern vegetation CHANGES 9 c– 21 c. Vegetation map of the territory Vegetation of the perfect model (9 c) STEP 3 The estimation of carbon stock STEP 4 Opportunity to reduce atmosphere dust pollution Distribution of tree species in the forests of the past (perfect model) and in modern forests (data of official statistics). According to experts, the proportion of indigenous spruce-oak-lime forests has significantly decreased. Currently secondary narrow-leaf forests (birch and aspen) are dominating. The assessment of changes in the amount of total carbon stock was based on the total change of the forest cover among three static patterns, as well as on the change in percentage of species. Correction factors for different tree species(soil and phytomass) (Milova, 2007) Dust capture functions Carbon stock inphytomass, tC ha-1 Average amount of soil carbon stock (t C ha-1) Pine 0,435 92,9 Spruce 0,614 139,4 Birch 0,437 100,3 Aspen 0,356 109,4 Oak 0,616 74,3 Alder 0,38 102 According to the statistical reports on Form 4-OS current expenditures for cleaning the air from dust is 9.5 euros per ton.1 ha of forest, growing in the Moscow region, delays in the crowns from 40 to 100 tons of dust annually (Bobylev et al., 2002). Lime 0,38 102 D=S*(l1*k1+l2*k2+l3*k3+l4*k4+ l5*k5+l6*k6+l7*k7), where: D - the total stock of carbon deposited on the model  territoryS - area of ​​ model territory in hectaresli - share of the ith species per 1 ha Ki - factor of carbon storage of the ith species t C ha-1 (Milova, 2007) To estimate the reduction of air pollution the cost approach is applied.The estimation of environmental functions of forests in Moscow region is carried out according to the expenditure that would be needed in order to create artificial analogues that would replace the forests purification function.Forests function to capture dust can be estimated at the average level for the forests of Moscow region: 668 €. per hectare. Since it is irrelevant to evaluate economic potential of the perfect model of forest cover, the total deposited carbon of only two contemporary patterns (2000 and 2007) was estimated in monetary terms at the rate prevailing on the world market for 1 ton of Carbon (12-16 euros). REZULTS Carbon changes Forestation changes Perfect model 2000 2007 Official statistics data (for 2007) Forestation, % 95 45 43,5 45 b 1,5 % Official statistics overestimates the real forest cover of the Moscow region, therefore an illegal deforestation is taking place. CONCLUSION • The environmental potential of the territory (amount of the carbon deposited) has been identified. It is defined as the initial state of forest cover in preindustrial period compared to which the observed changes were estimated. It was found that in Moscow region the amount of deposited carbon was approximately 1,126,707,977 tC. • The changes in the area and species composition of forest cover (according to official statistics) have been evaluated in comparison with potentially indigenous state forests in the region. The forest cover area in the framework of this model area has been changing from 95% of the territory to 43.5%. • The method for assessing changes in forest cover with the usage of satellite data of medium resolution has been developed. It has been shown that the official statistics overestimate the real value of forest cover in Moscow region, therefore an illegal deforestation is taking place. Differences in forest land constitute for 1.5% (between 45% and 43.5%). • The estimation of carbon stock for Moscow Region has been made. The forest area and species composition have been taken into account. Amount of deposited carbon in 2000 was 227,799,726.2 tC, as for 2007 - 220 206 402 tC. • The economic assessment of the dynamics in forest cover of the Moscow region for the period 2000-2007 has been made. Number of deposited carbon in money terms amounted in 2000 - as for 3,189,196,167 euros and in 2007 - 3,082,889,629 euros. Thus, the loss of stored carbon ha been evaluated as 106,306 538.9 euros. • Damages related to the reduction of the forest area and reduction of their functions to capture dust amounted in 42,909,678 euros. а There is also a damage caused by reducing of forests’ ability to capture dust Current state of forests: а – areas of cuttings in the vicinities of Moscow: 1992-2002 y. (10240 ha) + 2002-2007 y. (6360 ha) б – forested area of Moscow region according to satellite imagery Thus, the losses associated with the decrease in the forest cover and the reduction of their functions to capture dust, are estimated as 42,909,678 euros. Pollutioning emissions from stationary sources, tons per year • References: • Bobylev S.N., Medvedeva O.E., Soloveva S.V. Economics of Preservation of Biodiversity / Edited by A.A. Тishkov. M.: Global Environmental Facility Biodiversity Conservation Project, Institute of Natural Resources Management, 2002. 604 p. • Milova O.V. The economical assessment of Russian forests as a greenhouse gases reservoir. Dissertation theses. M. 2007. 25 p. • Millennium ecosystem assessment, 2005. Ecosystem and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island press, Washington, DS. Pollutioning emissions from stationary sources, tons per year