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THE EUROPEAN RIDDLE – COUNTRIES, SECTORS OR STOCKS?. James Buckley. Ireland. Irish Equity Market. Irish equity market underperformed in 2005 Market on 2006 PE of 14X, in line with MSCI Europe Ex UK Forecast EPS growth of 15%, premium to MSCI Europe Ex UK
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THE EUROPEAN RIDDLE – COUNTRIES, SECTORS OR STOCKS? James Buckley
Irish Equity Market • Irish equity market underperformed in 2005 • Market on 2006 PE of 14X, in line with MSCI Europe Ex UK • Forecast EPS growth of 15%, premium to MSCI Europe Ex UK • Earnings yield of 7.5% compares to 10 year Bond yield of 2.5% Source: Davys Stockbrokers as at Dec 2005
Irish index 2006 3/1/06 – 29/12/06 Absolute Return: +26% 10000 9500 Irish Overall IN Eqty Prc 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 17Feb 10Mar 21Apr 2 Jun 14Jul 4Aug 15Sep 6Oct 17Nov 8Dec Source: Bloomberg as at 29/12/06
Interesting Stock Opportunities • Bank of Ireland • CRH • Anglo-Irish • C&C • Mcinerney
Irish stock performance 2006 • Bank of Ireland: +29% • CRH: +25% • Anglo-Irish: +22% • C&C: +145% • Mcinerney:+28% Source: Bloomberg as at 3/1/07
Strategic Geopolitical Location • Leading investor in Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia and in top 3 for Romania • Greek population to rise significantly post EU enlargement stage 2 • Energy hub with pipelines to Turkey, Italy and Black Sea • Selected Greek stocks offer significant exposure to Balkans
Greek index 2006 2/1/06 – 29/12/06 Absolute Return: +20% ASE General INDE Eqty Prc 4600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 Jan06 3Mar Apr May 16Jun 7Jul 18Aug Sep 20Oct 1Dec Source: Bloomberg as at 29/12/06
Interesting Stock Opportunities • Cosmote • National Bank of Greece • Bank of Piraeus • Coca-Cola Hellenic
Greek stock performance 2006 • Cosmote: +21% • Bank of Piraeus: +68% • National Bank of Greece*: -15% • CCHBC*: +4% • Bank of Cyprus*: +58% *To date sale/from date purchase Source: Bloomberg as at 3/1/07
Danish Equity Market • Danish equity market increased around 40% in 2005 • Market on 2006 PE of 14.7X, relative to 17x for 2004 and 2005 • Forecast EPS growth of 15%, premium to MSCI Europe Ex UK • Earnings yield of 6.8% compares to 10 year Bond yield of 3.3% Source: Cheuvreux as at Dec 2005
Danish index 2006 2/1/06 – 29/12/06 Absolute Return: +10% OMX Copenhagen 2 Eqty Prc 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 Jan06 3Mar Apr May 16Jun 7Jul 18Aug Sep 20Oct 1Dec Source: Bloomberg at 29/12/06
Interesting Stock Opportunities • Danske Bank • A.P.Moller-Maersk • TDC
Danish Stock performance 2006 • Danske Bank: +12% • Maersk*: -23% *To date sale Source: Bloomberg as at 3/1/07
Growth theme in Peripheral Europe intact • Economic growth in the euro zone has improved • Peripheral euro zone economies are even more attractive Source: Consensus Forecast December 11th, 2006
Prospective valuations for 2007 • Ireland forward PE 13X for 12% eps growth • Greece forward PE13X for 19% eps growth • Denmark forward PE 16X for 13.5% eps growth • Europe ex UK forward PE 13X for 9% eps growth Source: JP Morgan as at 3/1/07
Baring European Growth - 31/01/07Country bets Overweight • Ireland 10.2% versus 1.94% benchmark • Austria 6% versus 1.4% benchmark Underweight • Spain 2% versus 9% benchmark • Germany 10.3% versus 16.4% benchmark
European Growth Top 10 holdings Top 10 current overweight stocks* Top 10 current underweight stocks* Source: Baring Asset Management as at 31/1/07 * Relative to MSCI Europe ex UK index For Comparative Purposes Only
Julius Baer Relative Strength vs. MSCI Europe ex UK 8-Feb-2006 to 9-Feb-2007 (Daily) • Growth – double-digit earnings growth forecast 06-08, driven by net inflows and improved operating efficiency • Management – Entirely new management team post GAM/SBC acquisition from UBS in 2005 • Value Creation – New targets for cost: income; revenues as % of AUM and net new money inflows set • Valuation – Trades on 17x 2006 PE, falling to 14.5X 2007, broadly in line with peer group. Scope for further upgrades 08-Feb-2006=100; Local Julius Baer Holding AG (BAER-CH) 131.1 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 Source: Baring Asset Management 2007 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan See Important Information
C&C Group Relative Strength vs. MSCI Europe ex UK 8-Feb-2006 to 9-Feb-2007 (Daily) • Growth – Revenue and earnings growth double digit, as they roll out Magners in the UK and take market share • Management – Track record of building a successful brand with Bulmers in Ireland • Value Creation – Recently sold an underperforming asset (snacks) above market forecasts • Valuation – 18.8x 2007 PE, but growing earnings at 20% plus and generating upgrades 08-Feb-2006=100; Local 220 C&C Group PLC (GCC-IE) 185.2 200 180 160 140 120 100 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Source: Baring Asset Management 2007 See Important Information
Telenor Relative Strength vs. MSCI Europe ex UK 8-Feb-2006 to 9-Feb-2007 (Daily) • Growth – Revenue and profit growth coming from mobile communications growth in Russia, Thailand and Bangledesh • Management – Over deliver on financial objectives and kept winning strategy of emerging market growth • Value Creation – deliver better return on capital than cost of capital even in higher risk emerging markets. $2.8bn offered for Ukranian asset, total investment of $200m • Valuation – 13.6x 2006 PE is at market level, for higher profit growth 08-Feb-2006=100; Local 160 Telenor ASA (TEL-NO) 158.9 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Source: Baring Asset Management 2007 See Important Information
European Growth Current Characteristics • Fund Size (UK£ million) 261.2 • Number of holdings in portfolio 46 • Large-cap eur>5bn+ (%) 78.99 • Mid-cap eur2-5bn (%) 12.02 • Small Cap eur<2bn (%) 6.29 • Tracking Error 3.60 Source: Baring Asset Management, data as 31/1/2007
European Growth (Continental Europe - Retail)Performance as at 31st January 2007 Source: Baring Asset Management, Standard & Poor’s. (bid to bid, in sterling, with net income reinvested). Past performance is not a guide to future performance Rank** 5/124 14/113 39/102 Quartile** 1st 1st 2nd European Growth (Continental Europe – Retail) is a UK Authorised Unit Trust, managed by Baring Fund Managers Limited (Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority). * Annualised returns.Index is MSCI Europe ex UK ** Micropal, UK Registered Investment Funds Equity Europe ex UK Reference to the index is for comparative purposes only.
Important Information This document is issued by Baring Asset Management Limited and in jurisdictions other than the UK it is provided by its investment advisory affiliates. It has been produced for, and is intended for receipt by, professional investors/advisers and must not be relied on by any other category of recipient. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. We reasonably believe that the information contained herein from 3rd party sources, as quoted, is accurate as at the date of publication. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. This document may include forward-looking statements which are based on our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice or recommendation or, an offer to sell or an invitation to apply for any product or service of Baring Asset Management Research Material Baring Asset Management only produces research for its own internal use. Where details of research are provided in this document it is provided as an example of research undertaken by Baring Asset Management and must not be used, or relied upon, for the purposes of any investment decisions. The information and opinions expressed herein may change at anytime. Date complied: 13 February 2007