Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation

1. Trends and driving forces in Asian irrigation Jean-Marc Faurès Land and Water Division FAO 19th January 2009 ADB-IWMI-FAO workshop on Trends and Transitions in Asian Irrigation Prospects for the Future, Bangkok, 19-21 January 2009.

2. Trends and drivers • Demography and health • Governance • Economic growth, globalisation and the role of agriculture • Irrigation expansion and agricultural production • Water scarcity • Climate change • Emerging trends • Bioenergy • Food crisis • Financial and economic crisis

3. Demography

4. Demography • Large population increase foreseen, but overall reduction in population growth rate • Urbanisation • Changes in diet preferences

5. Population growth 2009 Percentage per annum

6. 2006 Urban and rural population (millions) Southern Eastern Southeastern Western

7. Urbanisation • Increased role of commercial chains, including supermarkets • Reduced rural labour • Change in diets • Increased concern for food quality standards

8. Changing diets

9. Changing diets

10. Governance

11. Governance • Decentralisation • Advances in democracy • Public participation • Government withdrawal from operational functions • Opening towards market economy • IWRM ? • Irrigation management transfer ?

12. Economic growth, globalisation and the role of agriculture

13. Growth and Globalisation • Economic growth in Asia has been rapid over the past decades, even including the impact of the 1997 financial crisis. • Domestic and international markets are becoming more integrated. • International agricultural trade increased from 47% of agricultural GDP in 1981-83 to 89% in 2001-03. • Results: • decrease in price of main commodities • increased dependency on regional and global economy • increased competition, new opportunities

14. Agriculture in percentage of GDP

15. Agriculture remains a major sector of most Asian economies • Its health is crucial for increasing economy–wide productivity • It also serves as a buffer and safety net by providing employment in the face of large economic shock • It is still growing in absolute size. • Agriculture is still important, it is just that there are now many more competing sectors and budget priorities. • Large differences exist between countries in the region that affect agricultural policies

16. Irrigation expansion and agricultural production

17. Irrigation expansion 1950-2000 • Irrigation key element of Green Revolution “tripod”: water, fertilizers, seeds: • Need for rapid food production increase • Massive investments in irrigation (particularly in Asia) • Investment peak in late 1970s • Focus on large scale, public, surface irrigation schemes

18. Population, irrigation and agricultural production

19. Projections for future investments in irrigation • Irrigation growth rate will be slower than in the past: 0,6% p.a. against 1.6% in the past • Irrigation still important in the world food system, increasing to 45 percent of total food production in 2030 • Irrigation will increasingly serve a market-oriented agriculture, progressively focusing on higher value crops Source: FAO: Agriculture towards 2030

20. Change in cropping patterns in China

21. Evolution of public irrigation Source: Comprehensive assessment, adapted from Barker and Molle 2004.

22. Yield - rice Japan Vietnam China Indonesia Asia Laos

23. Land and water scarcity

24. Increased water withdrawal

26. Increasing water scarcity

27. Increasing water scarcity

28. Increasing water-related conflicts Source: Le Huu Ti, ESCAP

29. The groundwater revolution

30. Climate change

31. Climate change: impact on runoff

32. Climate change impacts • Irrigated agriculture • Glacier melting large systems (Ganges, Bramaputra, etc.) • Deltas: sea level rise • Arid areas: reduced runoff • Rainfed agriculture • low latitude: temperature stress • Arid areas: increased rainfall variability

33. Emerging trends: Bioenergy

34. Trends in biofuel production Source: Earth Trends 2007 Earth Policy Institute

36. Biofuel and water use (2005) Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

37. Projections for water demand - 2030 Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

38. Source: FAO/OECD, 2008

39. Rainfed agriculture: Pressure on land resources Irrigated agriculture: Pressure on water resources Impacts of biofuels

40. Source: McKinley

42. Emerging trends: Food prices

43. The 2007-2008 food crisis • Strong demand for food and feed • Reduced stocks and tighter markets • Incentives for biofuel • Speculations •  end of 30 years of decreasing food prices • Impacts the poor food purchasers most • Impact farmers: +/-

44. Food prices: “volatility ?”

45. Emerging trend: land acquisition ?

46. Emerging trends: Financial and economic crisis

47. ??

48. Conclusion: some challenges and opportunities for irrigation • Rising demand for water, food, fibres and energy: • Population growth • Urbanisation and changes in diet preferences • Rural poverty and lack of access to water • Aging water infrastructure, less financial resources • Demand for better water service • Reduced labour in many countries • Adapting to volatile food prices, tighter commodity markets • Increased competition for water • Increasing concern for environmental sustainability • Climate change

49. “Adapting yesterday’s irrigation systems to tomorrow’s needs”

50. Thank you