MODELING THE LONGEVITY OF COMPLETION OF HIGHER DEGREE STUDIES AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

1. MODELING THE LONGEVITY OF COMPLETION OF HIGHER DEGREE STUDIES AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY

2. Introduction • Student persistence in graduate programs (Master’s and PhD) is undoubtedly one of the most studied areas in higher education literature. • In Canada, UK, USA, and Australia, the concern goes way back to the 1990s (e.g., Haksever & Manisali, 2000; Holdaway, 1996; Elgar, 2003; Kerlin, 1995, 1995; Lovitts & Nelson, 2000; Martin, Maclachlan and Karmel, 2001; Smith, Brownell, Simpson & Deshler, 1993; Sheridan & Pyke, 1994). • In Uganda, like everywhere else in Africa, the importance of the research has not been at the forefront of educational studies by governments, major national research funding bodies, and the institutions themselves • The three emerging issues at the forefront of concerns are: • Non-completion / Attrition • Completion • and, completion time of studies Students with no Load on their Candidature for two or more consecutive years; thus, considered withdrawn. However, there is no guarantee that they will not resume with their studies despite the extended candidature

3. Implications of Delayed and/or Non-completion • Ongoing public outcry regarding graduate studies at Makerere University suggests that attrition is high; and for students who do complete, the length of time taken seems to have risen ”in the recent years”. Implications of delayed and/or non-completion are outline below: • Vladimir (2010) points us to three implications of non-completion • The research program and future funding bids of supervisors may be compromised • Losses to university associated with the recruitment and provision of necessary research infrastructure and supervision • Through their contribution to rankings, completion rates and student satisfaction are becoming increasingly important in attracting students to highly competitive universities • Tettey(2008) point us to a negative impact on the next generation of academics • The financial penalties to students for extended candidatures, beyond stipulated period, represent a considerable waste of resources

4. Objectives of Study • The main objective of the study was to investigate completion dynamics of doctoral studies at Makerere University. Specifically, the study sought to: • Examine the completion time dynamics of doctoral studies at Makerere University • Explore dynamics of attrition resulting in either delayed or non-completion of doctoral studies The high level of student enrollments at Makerere, compared to other universities in Uganda, makes it an important context for make such an investigation in the country. Being one of the highly ranked institutions of higher learning in Sub-Saharan and Africa in general (CSIC, 2012), the results provide an important basis for understanding graduate studies in developing countries The January 2012 web-metrics ranking positions Makerere at 12 in Africa and ninth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the best in Sub-Saharan Africa with the exception of South Africa’s institutions

5. Theoretical Approach • The study is based on Tinto’s (1975) model of institutional persistence and/or departure. Tinto suggests the decision to withdraw to be a function what occurs before and after enrollment. Retention rates: • Serve as an indicator of institutional quality and health • Also, reveal much about the character and problems within the academic institution • The conceptualization suggests that commitment to goals and the institution may directly lead to departure. However, the principle impact is contingent on a number of factors before, on and after enrollment. Variables grouped according to four major themes: • Variables were grouped according to three major themes: a) Candidate Characteristics, b) Candidature Characteristics, and c) Institutional factors, including discipline area • These factors presented may: • Directly influence student decision to persist/drop-out; • Or, interact with each other and influence the ways in which students interact with the institutional environment by directly affecting their commitment to initial goals and the institutional

6. Conceptual Framework Academic Integration Institutional Factors Individual Attributes Goal Commitment Institutional Commitment Persistence Completion • May directly lead to departure; however, principle impact is contingent on a number of factors . • Factors may directly influence decision to persist /drop-out • Interact with each other and influence ways students interact with institutional environment by directly affecting commitment to goals and institution Prior Schooling and/or Qualifications Social Integration Candidature X-tics

7. Hypotheses • There exist differentials in completion time of doctoral studies by candidate demographics of sex and age at commencement • The Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) at entry is a major factor for and against timely completion of doctoral students • Financial aid is a contributing factor for timely or completion of doctoral studies through its impact on goals • The different departmental arrangements are the key to discipline differentials in delayed or non-completion of doctoral studies • There is an increase in completion time and levels of doctoral studies of Makerere “in the recent years”

8. Overview of Literature: International Perspective • An abundance of related literature exists particularly for countries namely USA, UK, Canada and Austria; however, equivalent comprehensive studies are not available for African universities with the exception of a couple of studies in South Africa’s institutions (Sanders et al., 2008). However, • Literature presented for South Africa’s universities is limited to overall rates, yet differentials by variables suggested in literature would be of paramount importance.; • Adisagreement exists with regards to data and methods applied in the investigation; • Prior studies have used data for only completed students • In light of skewed nature of completion time, prior studies have assumed normality of the variable to model such data (e.g., ANOVA and MLR); completion time is not supported on the entire real line • There is underreporting of assumptions of statistical tests adopted in analysis; certainly, putting to question the validity of results and conclusions made (Osborne & Elaine, 2002).

9. Overview of Literature: Local Perspective • In Uganda, Mugimu, Nakabugo and Katunguka (2009) suggest high attrition and long completion time of graduate studies at Makerere University. However, • Ignore a backlog of students registered in the various disciplines in their estimation of completion rates using graduation rates; thus putting to question the validity of estimates made • The use of graduation as a measure of completion time of studies would not be deal i.e. students who submit a final copy of thesis within 26 months and those in 30 months would both graduate in 36 months (3 years) • Mugimu et al.‘s study does not provide an assessment of dynamics of completion, completion time and non-completion by variables present in equivalent studies carried out elsewhere

10. Overview of Literature: Way forward • Despite the limitations, • The studies are illustrative enough in alerting us to the need for such data and investigations subsequently • The variables and associations established for studies in USA, UK, Canada and Austria provide an important basis for pursing such an explanation

11. Data and Sources • The study adopted two perspectives to the investigations, which required various data: • From the Institutional Perspective - administrative data of all 294 PhD students at Makerere in 2000 to 2006 enrollment cohorts was extracted from the ITS. Aspects not available on the system were obtained from Graduate School records , files and financial records . • Using the Student Perspective - an extensive investigation using the approach was done by Mugimu et al. (2009) on graduate students at Makerere in the same enrollment cohorts. Their study documented experiences of undertaking graduate studies (Master’s and PhD); supervision aspects were also investigated. With exception of a few aspects, their findings were considered highly reliable in providing a contextual understanding of associations established in the analysis of administrative data Results provide a statistical assessment of dynamics of completion, completion time and non-completion Results provide a contextual understanding of associations established in the assessment following the institutional perspective

12. Outcome Variables and Measurements Objectives are: i) Completion Time, and ii) Non-completion Dynamics of Doctoral studies at Makerere • The outcome variable investigation were: • Time-to-completion - Total elapsed time [months] from first enrolment to submission of a final thesis or dissertation copy after defense (Sheridan & Pyke, 1994) . A Failure variable described below was generated to guide the analysis • Enrollment status - assumed three outcomes of PhD candidature when data were extracted from the Graduate School database and/or records: Items were considered to be nominal i.e., follow no particular order

13. Overview of Approaches Investigated • The following approaches were investigated for appropriateness

14. Completion Time Dynamics of Doctoral Studies • The results relate to full-time PhD students at Makerere with the following profile: • Predominantly Ugandan by nationality (94.2%), registered for thesis-based studies (81.4%), male (76.6%), married (90.9%), and solely of Makerere University origin for their Bachelor's and/or Master's Degrees (63.9%). • With regard to age at commencement of doctoral studies, a median of 37 years (ranges 24-61) was realized. • Slightly over five in every eight PhD students (63%) were of 2003 to 2005 enrollment cohorts. • The analysis was done at the following stages • A descriptive summary of the duration and probability of completion, which is the survival function, was presented using the Kaplan-Meier (1958) estimator • Differentials in survival experiences across potential predictors of completion time were investigated using Log-Rank Chi-square test (Mantel, 1966; Peto, 1972) • ONLY predictors with p-value of 0.25 or lower (obtained from the Log-Rank test) were considered for further investigation at the multivariate stage – Cox Proportional Hazard Model.

15. Diagnostic Investigation: Cox model [Log-Hazard Function] • Proportional Hazard Assumption • The global and detailed proportionality tests of the hazards, based on Schoenfeld and scaled Schoenfeld residuals, were satisfied (p > 0.05). • Specification Test [Link Function] • Log-hazard function was well specified, as predicted by the Hat-statistic (_hat: p < 0.05); the Hat-square statistic (_hatsq) shows that no additional variables were significant (p > 0.05) Table 1: Specification Errors of Link Function Log-hazard is correct link function for the outcome variable Linear combination of predictors is supported Log-hazard is a linear combination of predictors

16. Overall Goodness of Fit • Investigated using Cox-Snell residual (Cox & Snell, 1968). Thesis based Model General Model Variability about the 450 line is still expected for well fitting Cox-models particularly in the right-hand tail due to reduced effective sample caused by prior failures and censoring (Mario et al., 2010) • Log-Hazard Function fits the data in both models well

17. Outliers and Influential Cases • Investigated using likelihood displacement (Collett, 2003) Thesis based Model General Model Removal of case 2111 in the model causes relatively large changes in values of the log likelihood

18. Results: Completion Time Dynamics of PhD Completion figure is longer than the three-year stipulated period • A median PhD completion time of 5.0 years (range, 1.8 - 9.1) compares favorably with the maximum period of candidature stipulated in the University Human Resource Manual. • The rate of completion was higher for: candidates at the younger ages of commencement, international students, those registered in science disciplines and those in 2000 to 2002 enrolment cohorts . • Variables sex, prior studies and financial assistance (tuition, research and living allowance) were not associated with timely completion of a PhD (p > 0.05) Table 2: Descriptive Summary of PhD Completion Time Financially aided students were predominately staff of Makerere who were considered because of their impressive grades. Nevertheless, entry criteria (CGPA) are a better predictor of academic performance than they are a predictor of timely completion (Wamala & Oonyu, 2012).

19. Non-completion Dynamics of Doctoral Studies • The analysis was done at the following stages • The status of a candidature, five years after initial enrollment on PhD, was presented using frequency distribution. • Potential predictors of candidature status were examined using the Pearson Chi-square test and univariate logistic – variables for consideration at Multivariate stage were suggested (predictors with p-value of 0.5 and below) • The likelihood of completion and extended candidature, rather than withdrawal, was investigated by a range of candidate, candidature and institutional variables using a MNL

20. Results: Non-completion Dynamics of PhD Table 3: Five-year Doctoral Enrollment Status by Year of Commencement • A total of 44 (15%: 95% CI 10.9 – 19.1) out of the overall enrolment (N = 294) were confirmed to have completed their studies within five years after initial enrolment 85% non-completion rate of PhD

21. Diagnostic Investigation: MNL [Logit Function] • Sample Size Requirements of MNL • Model(s) satisfied the minimum (10 to 1) and preferred (20 to 1) ratio requirements (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 2000) • Outliers and Influential Points • Were examined using standardized residuals (greater than 3.0) and Cook’s distance (greater than 1.0) following the binary logistic procedure. • Improvement in classification accuracy was less than the 2% increase- model(s) comprising all cases adopted • Goodness of Fit Test • Hypothesis of good fit was supported in the investigations based on Pearson and deviance statistics (p > 0.05) • Classification Accuracy Criteria • Results satisfy classification accuracy criteria - classification accuracy rate is greater or equal to the proportion by chance accuracy criteria (25% more than)

22. Results: Non-completion Dynamics of Doctoral Studies • Likelihood of completion rather than withdrawal • Candidates at age at the commencement of their doctoral studies (below 40) were more likely to complete rather than withdraw when compared to those over 40 years of age. • Doctoral candidates registered in the Arts discipline had a reduced rate of completion compared to those in the Sciences . • International doctoral candidates were more likely to complete their studies rather than withdraw compared to the native counterparts Base Category • Likelihood of extended candidature rather than withdrawal • PhD students in Arts discipline had a reduced rate of extending candidature beyond five years. • Financial assistance was associated with extended candidature beyond five years Suggests that these students have benefits they obtain from extending candidature beyond the stipulated period

23. Results: Non-completion Dynamics of Doctoral Studies • Completion rather than Withdrawal did not vary significantly by variables Sex, Marital Status, year of enrollment, prior studies and financial assistance (p > 0.05). In other words, results can be summarized as follows: • No sex differential with regard to completion • Completion of PhD does not vary by Married vs. single status • There is no decrease in PhD completion levels of Makerere in recent years • Either a students was of Makerere university origin during their Master’s and/or Bachelor’s or not does not determine their completion • Financial assistance towards tuition research and/or living allowance does not lead to timely completion - within five years • Extended candidature rather than withdrawal did not vary significantly by variables age, Marital status, citizenship, year of enrollment, sex and prior studies (p > 0.05).

24. Conclusions Approaches Adopted: Results support the aptness of implementing the time-to-event approach in modeling data with: i) low enrollment and completion figures of studies, ii) a considerable number of students who have not completed studies by the time of the study, and iii) normality assumption of completion time is not supported. Further, the MNL providesa detailed assessment of non-completion of studies. • Completion Time Dynamics of PhD at Makerere: • Situation and dynamics are not unique to Makerere University; while the levels of completion and completion time may not compare favorable with those among international institutions, there are similarities in the dynamics of completion Approach concerns nothing more than making a substitution for the normality assumption with something more appropriate for the data (Mario et al., 2011)

25. Conclusions: Cont’ • Persistence in PhD studies of Makerere: • Persistence and/or success on PhD is influenced by factors at enrollment and during the course of candidature • Suggest the need for establishing measures to promote progress in doctoral studies at early stages of commencement as well as throughout the course of candidature

26. Further Analysis Carried out: Suggested for Further Research I. • Could the dynamics of Completion of PhD studies for a particular university be adopted as basis for explaining Master’s studies? • Administrative data of 605 students in the 2000 to 2005 cohort who had either completed (n = 457) or in advanced stages of candidature (n =148) was adopted in the investigation. The established associations modeled on similar variables corroborate the results obtained by the analysis of doctoral completion time at the University Master’s completion dynamics mirror those of doctoral studies at the University (Wamala et al., 2012)

27. Further Analysis Carried out: Suggested for Further Research II • What is the baring of the examination process of student theses or dissertation on their Completion Time? • Prior analysis points to graduate students themselves as the main factor in their progress and success in graduate programs—a concept that may not be entirely correct. • A study of 504 completed Master’s student at School of Education and External Studies, in the 2000 to 2008 enrollment cohort revealed that students require another academic year to complete the entire review cycle of their reports i.e., submitting a report for examination, attending viva voce to submitting corrected or final copy to the Graduate School The hypothesis of a lengthy review process being a contributing factor to delayed completion was supported Need to strengthen administrative support systems particularly aspects related to review process of student reports (Wamala & Oonyu, 2012)

28. Questions?