Principles not products: Assessment under the new National Curriculum Stephen Anwyll

1. Principles not products:Assessment under the new National CurriculumStephen Anwyll redbridge: 10june 2016

2. Aims • Pause and take stock on the implementation of the revised National Curriculum • Identify the changes that are likely to have the biggest implications for schools • Look at simple ways to use assessment to improve outcomes for children • Consider priorities for 2016-17

3. National Curriculum 2014 – how far have we got? • For many teachers, this will be a ‘once-in-a-career’ experience • Only the second primary national curriculum and the first significant change to national standards in 25 years • 16,500 schools, 4.5 million pupils and 300,000 teaching staff – it’s a big ship to turn • It takes time: • 2020 before we have the first Y6 pupils who’ve experienced the revised curriculum from Y1 • Introducing new standards is always time-consuming and they need the chance to settle

4. Change in primary attainment over time

5. Establishing new national standards – EYFS Profile

6. So what’s changed in national assessment?

7. Changes to the original plans • Optional baseline assessment in early Reception: • Three assessments available for first use Autumn 2015 – intended to provide basis of progress measurement in participating primaries at end of KS2 in 2022 • Comparability study April 2016 – ‘insufficient comparability between the three reception baseline assessments to enable them to be used in the accountability system concurrently’ • DfE ‘rethinking options for assessment in early years’ - will pay for baseline assessments autumn 2016 (four now available) but outcomes not used for accountability • Key Stage 1 tests • New Grammar, Punctuation and Spelling (GPS) test no longer a requirment after spellings published by mistake on DfE website so new standard only set in reading and mathematics

8. From levels to scaled scores – KS1 Pre-2016 From 2016 Each year, ‘national standard’ score is equated then converted to 100 and other scores are scaled on either side of it For each new test, threshold scores were equated and adjusted according to relative difficulty of test compared to previous years

9. Reporting at the end of KS1 in 2016 – Pupil X

10. KS2 Teacher Assessment

11. Interim Frameworks for Teacher Assessment • TA no longer ‘best fit’ judgement but test remains compensatory; TA could be different to test score for more pupils and will need explanation • Many statements within standards confined to functional and technical aspects of the subject so important not to use them as basis for planning • For use in 2015-16 only – to be reviewed; major implications for data continuity if changed • Four standard statements at KS1 offer less potential to differentiate baseline for progress by end of KS2; may be significant from 2020

12. Reporting at the end of KS2 in 2016 – Pupil X * A test score of 100 represents performance at the national expected standard and scores range from xx to xxx

13. Reporting at the end of KS2 in 2016 – Pupil Y (SEND) * Pupil Y is working below the standard of the national tests and was not entered for them.

14. From levels to scaled scores Pre-2016 From 2016 Each year, ‘national standard’ score is equated then converted to 100 and other scores are scaled on either side of it Each year, threshold scores are equated and adjusted according to relative difficulty of test compared to previous years

15. Primary school accountability in 2016 • Two sets of criteria for two separate thresholds: • Floor standard and • Coasting standard (new) • One attainment criterion and one progress criterion for each • Attainment Measures: • Floor: 65% of pupils achieving new, higher, national expected standard in all of Reading & Mathematics tests and in Writing TA in 2016 • Coasting: 85% of pupils achieving combined Level 4 in 2014 or 2015 or85% combined new standard in 2016

16. New attainment measure for 2016 – likely impact • 2016 floor standard (attainment): same percentage of pupils as in 2014 and 2015 (65% at combined L4) but higher expectation so fewer schools likely to achieve it • In 2015, % of primary schools where 65% of pupils attained Level 4+ in all of Rdg and Ma tests and Wtg TA • In 2015, % of primary schools where 65% of pupils attained ‘4b+’ in Rdg and Ma tests tests and L4+ in Wtg TA 91% 65%

17. Primary school accountability in 2016 Progress measures: ‘sufficient progress’ in all of Reading and Writing and Mathematics, not separately as before • ‘Sufficient progress’ thresholds to be defined in autumn 2016 after new KS2 tests have been taken and results analysed • Floor: thresholdset to ensure that similar numbers of schools are below the floor as in 2014 (about 700 i.e. 7%) • Coasting: 2016 threshold set at a more challenging level than for ‘floor standard’ but expected to identify ‘hundreds of schools’ (i.e. less than a thousand)

18. 2014 2016? Impact of new primary school floor standard measures?

19. Progress in at least one subject v Progress in all three subjects Alternative 2015 – pupils’ progress between KS1 and KS2 is above a lower ‘sufficient’ threshold in all three subjects 2015 - % of pupils making at least two levels of progress between KS1 and KS2 at or above national median in at least one subject

20. Secondary school accountability in 2016 Floor standard • Only one measure – Progress 8 • Progress between average attainment at KS2 (on entry) and average performance across 8 subjects at GCSE (or equivalent) • Threshold already known – needs to be better than -0.5 (i.e. students on average are attaining no worse than half a grade lower than all students nationally who came into Y7 with the same KS2 attainment)

21. New category of secondary ‘coasting schools’ 2016 • Based on school’s attainment and progress over three years (2014, 2015 and 2016) • In 2014 and 2015, below 60% pupils with 5 A*-C (incEng and Ma) and percentage of students making expected progress below national median (74% & 67% in 2014) • In 2016 below a ‘sufficient progress’ measure which will be higher than the -0.5 used for the floor standard • A school can be ‘coasting’ only if it falls below all measures in all three years • Where a school is judged to be ‘coasting’, the Regional Schools Commissioner will assess whether or not it has a credible plan to ensure pupils make required progress. If so, support from expert head; if not, may become sponsored academy

22. Measuring pupil progress 2015 to 2024

23. Calculating progress – the new approach (1) Leon – Y2 in 2012 Reading L2a = 17 pts Writing L2b = 15 pts Mathematics L3 = 21 pts English 16 + Maths 21 = 37 so 18.5 APS Leon - Y6 in 2016 Reading test: 107

24. Calculating progress – the new approach (1) Leon got 1 mark more than the average for those with similar starting points = +1 Leon - Y6 2016 Reading test: 107 2012 KS1 APS: 18.5 All other pupils nationally with KS1 APS of 18.5 in 2012: Average 2016 Reading test - 106

25. Calculating progress – the new approach (2) School progress score for reading: +1.4 Leon has a progress score of +1 Add the progress scores of all Y6 pupils in Leon’s school and divide by the number of pupils: mean = +1.4

26. What will primary schools have to publish? Website will need to set out: • the average progress [the school progress score] made by pupils in reading, writing & mathematics • the percentage of pupils achieving the expected standard in reading, writing & mathematics at the end of key stage 2 • the average score of pupils in their end of key stage 2 assessments; and, • the percentage of pupils who achieve a high score in all areas at the end of key stage 2. ‘…we would like to show each school’s position in the country on these measures and present these results in a manner that is clear for all audiences to understand.’ Reforming assessment and accountability for primary schools: DfE March 2014

27. Calculating progress – secondary Leon – Y6 in 2016 Reading test: 107 = ?pts Maths test: 103 = ?pts Overall KS2 point score = 5.9 Leon – Y11 in 2021 Performance in 8 qualifications: ‘Attainment 8’ average grade = 6.4

28. Calculating progress – secondary (2) Leon got 0.3 of a grade more than the average for those with similar starting points = +0.3 Leon – Y11 2021 Average grade: 6.4 2016 KS2 score: 5.9 All other students nationally with KS2 score of 5.9 in 2016: Average Attainment 8 – 6.1

29. Calculating progress – secondary (3) School Progress 8 score: +0.4 Leon has a progress 8 score of +0.3 Add the progress scores of all Y11 students in Leon’s school and divide by the number of pupils: mean = +0.4

30. What will be published - secondary schools Performance tables will include: • Progress across 8 qualifications [threshold for floor standard is -0.5] • Attainment across same 8 qualifications • Percentage of students achieving the threshold in English and maths GCSE (Grade C in 2016, Grade 5 from 2017) • Percentage of students achieving the English Baccalaureate • Percentage of pupil entered for the English Baccalaureate

31. Setting primary ‘sufficient progress’ threshold in 2016

32. Meaningful assessment – basic principles • It’s the recognition of learning in relation to what’s being or has been taught • It’s an integral part of effective teaching • It’s happening all the time in every classroom through observation, dialogue and marking • It makes a positive difference when it’s acted on: • useful feedback is given to the individual or group • teaching is modified and refined • information is aggregated to allow patterns to be seen and action taken at individual, class and school level

33. Teaching and Learning

34. Good day-to-day teaching and learning Rich evidence of learning and helpful feedback Periodic review across subject in relation to national expectations Broad curriculum Improved overall planning Better pedagogy Targets for improvement Secure tracking of progress More accurate summative judgements Better information for parents

35. Building an approach to monitoring progress • Make sure all staff develop a shared sense of the new national expectations through familiarity with: • Programme of Study objectives in all year groups • Teacher Assessment Standard Statements for Y2 & Y6 and national exemplification material • Sample tests (KS1 and KS2) for 2016 • Identify natural points in the year when you need to review attainment & progress (reports to parents, governor reports, pupil progress reviews etc) • Devise a simple way of categorising attainment (e.g. likely to be below age-related expectations (ARE) / in line with ARE / consolidating ARE by end of year)

36. Building an approach to monitoring progress 4 Allocate pupils to the three categories and then review this in relation to available evidence at agreed points across the year 5Moderate your judgements by presenting evidence from pupils in each category to other teachers 6 In discussions with pupils and parents, always focus on: • where pupils have (demonstrably) improved and made progress • next steps and targets 7 Make sure that decisions are made in response to assessment (interventions/staff deployment/CPD)

37. New NC and assessment – opportunities to: • take stock, review policy, drop unhelpful practice and retain what’s best for pupils • rely less on data and more on the recognition of visible attainment and progress • talk to pupils, parents and receiving teachers in more descriptive language and focus on key next steps • develop better cross-curricular planning so that pupils have meaningful contexts for applying, consolidating and deepening knowledge and understanding • regularly provide teachers with chance to compare evidence of learning and judgements and to build shared interpretation of expectations and greater trust

38. New NC and assessment – threats: • high stakes accountability (school and teacher), perverse incentives and pressures on accurate assessment • over-elaborate new systems to quantify and track progress • teachers becoming ‘year group specialists’ and losing a ‘vertical’ sense of progress • new approach to reporting of national test scores being misunderstood and misinterpreted • uncertainty about future of new teacher assessment approach and standards (‘to be reviewed’) • even narrower focus on English and mathematics and less time for science and the wider curriculum

39. Priorities for 2016-17 • Make sure that staff are as familiar as possible with NC Programmes of Study – not just in their own year group - and use them as the basis of their planning • Revisit assessment principles – recognising learning in order to provide good feedback, improve teaching, review planning and focus resources – and how these are reflected in policies, practice and decisions • Review how and when you report to parents so they’re clear about how their child has improved, what are their next steps and how parents can help them

40. Priorities for 2016-17 (continued) • Avoid the use of numbers / labels with pupils and parents; if you use them at all, confine them to internal discussions and analysis • Revisit teacher performance management criteria to make sure you are not introducing perverse incentives • Allow time for ongoing transition discussions this year so teachers can share insights to help ensure that pupils are building on prior learning to make progress • Work with other schools, including secondaries, to build up a shared interpretation of the expectations of the new Curriculum

41. Priorities for 2016-17 (continued) • Review your 2016 outcomes in terms of pupil progress across all of reading and mathematics tests and writing TA then look at current progress in Y5, Y4 and Y3 in relation to pupils’ KS1 outcomes grouped by APS scores • If you’ve adopted a new, external system for recording / tracking pupil progress, keep it under review it to make sure it’s doing what you want it to do and is manageable • Try to keep things simple because you’ll almost certainly need to tweak and adapt your approach as the whole system settles down over the next two to three years

42. But what about Ofsted? • Survey of recent reports provides a broadly reassuring picture of how assessment has been judged • Comments were most frequent on: • Teachers’ questioning – how well it checks and probes pupils’ understanding, deepens thinking and enhances learning • Use of assessment information - to adjust the curriculum and teaching to meet pupils’ needs effectively • Senior and middle leaders’ engagement – involved in regular reviews of progress of individuals and groups of pupils • Collaboration with other schools - to get an external view of attainment standards and progress