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IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis: PV in Focus

IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis: PV in Focus. Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre. July 2013. 1. Costing…. Why? How? With whom?. Rationale and goals.

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IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis: PV in Focus

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  1. IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis:PV in Focus

    Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.orgIRENA Innovation and Technology Centre July 2013
  2. 1 Costing….Why?How?With whom?
  3. Rationale and goals Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data Goals: Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies Fill a significant information gap Coverage: Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013) Road Transport (July 2013) Stationary applications (2014)
  4. Where to set the boundaries? How to get data? Framework Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators? Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
  5. 2 Renewable PowerGeneration 2012
  6. Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply A shift in policy focus will need to come Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling A convergence in LCOEs Data collection poses challenges Key findings
  7. LCOE ranges and averages
  8. Levelised cost of electricity by country/region Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital
  9. Wind turbine cost reductions Higher capacity factors from improved technology The LCOE of wind
  10. Hydropower Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE
  11. 3 Solar PV:
  12. Introduction Solar PV is democratising not only electricity but also renewables Huge potential economic, environmental and social dividends for developing countries in the sun belt Solar PV module prices have fallen rapidly, but much more stable in 2013 Grid parity for residential customers will become increasingly the norm in Europe, but… Globally a very narrow market, deployment is not typically where the sun is….much work needs to be done
  13. PV modules prices
  14. Learning rates for PV modules 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011
  15. Non-OECD installed costs for PV (utility-scale)
  16. Solar PV installed costs
  17. An emerging/persistent issue:Balance of system costs? Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
  18. So what does all this mean? REMAP: doubling the share of renewables by 2030 Power sector has the lowest costs Solar PV is an importantpart of the solution …and is set to become amajor source of electricity
  19. 4 Plans for the irena renewable costing alliance andFuture work on pv
  20. Rationale and Plans Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly Goals: more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data
  21. Structure
  22. Predicting solar flares…or at least IRENA’s plans for PV PV Parity Indicators Economic opportunities mapping with the IRENA Global Atlas In-depth analysis of emerging market costs and market development
  23. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs tobe done to fulfill their potential… IRENA is part of the solution mtaylor@irena.org www.irena.org/costs
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