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Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts

Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts. Tim Killeen Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research President, AGU. Overview. Why climate change science in the classroom? Climate versus Weather Climate Models Climate Change Observations

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Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts

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  1. Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts Tim Killeen Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research President, AGU

  2. Overview • Why climate change science in the classroom? • Climate versus Weather • Climate Models • Climate Change Observations • IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers • Future Impacts Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Courtesy of Lonnie Thompson

  3. It’s warmer on average across the globe than it was a half century ago. Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land and ocean. Random chance of 11 of the last 12 years being among 12 warmest: less than 1:100,000

  4. Why Focus on Climate Change? • Societal Relevance • National Science Education Standards (NRC, 1996) • Interdisciplinary content spans broad spectrum of the geosciences • Opportunities for authentic inquiry-based learning • A focus area providing opportunity for students to engage in research-driven learning with high motivation in an interdisciplinary context. Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004 Courtesy Environment Canada

  5. Relevance of Climate Change to the NSES • Unifying concepts and processes • Science as Inquiry • Physical Science • Life Science • Earth and Space Science • Science and Technology • Science in Personal and Social Perspectives • History and Nature of Science

  6. NSES Content Standards, Grades 5-8

  7. NSES Content Standards, Grades 9-12

  8. Climate • Global climate is driven by energy from the Sun and modulated by atmospheric composition

  9. The average weather for a region over a long period of time – 30 years or more • Determined by latitude, altitude, topography, proximity to oceans/position in land mass • Characterized by temperature, winds, and rainfall

  10. You buy clothes based on climate You wear clothes based on weather

  11. The Challenge of Simulating the Global Earth System Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere Atmosphere

  12. Timeline of Climate Model Development

  13. Model Resolutions R15 T42 T170 T85

  14. Climate System Models

  15. Increase in temperature tracks carbon emissions and CO2 ~ highest level of CO2 over past 400 Kyrs

  16. 450,000 yrs ago time today CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeu et al., 2002, 100’s of thousands of years:Ice Core Data

  17. Glaciers are Retreating Globally In Switzerland… In Alaska…

  18. Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru between 1978 and 2000. Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center

  19. Permafrost in the Arctic is melting, leading to infrastructure damage as well as disrupting subsistence life styles

  20. Ice is breaking up earlier on rivers and lakes in the spring around the world

  21. Rise in Global Mean Sea Level

  22. 250 Year Record of Leafing Out Date of English Oaks

  23. Natural Variations do not explain observed climatic change • Climate models with natural forcing (including volcanic and solar) do not reproduce warming • When increase in greenhouse gases is included, models do reproduce warming • Addition of increase in aerosols (cooling) improves agreement

  24. IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

  25. NCAR Simulations: A Door Ajar!Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice “Abrupt” transition • Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease • Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Observations Simulated 5-year running mean

  26. Past and Future Rise in Sea Level 20,000 years ago 2200? ( + 5 meters)

  27. Multiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered Zwally et al., (2002) Science Alley et al. (2005) Science

  28. Annual Number of Quakes* Earthquake Locations * 2005 bars capture only first 10 months of 2005 Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland. Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1. Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.

  29. Health Effect of Climate Change Heat Stress Mortality Urban Heat islands Ozone Malaria Dengue West Nile Virus Encephalitis Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera Cyclospora Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospirosis Waste System failure Runoff Diarrhea Toxic Red Tides Malnutrition Forced Migration Overcrowding Infectious diseases Heat Respiratory diseases Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne Diseases Changes in water availability, infrastructure & food supply Environmental Refugees CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Extreme Weather Events

  30. Climate Myths • Climate has always varied (yes, but a lot of that variability was forced and we know what is forcing current change). • The upper atmosphere isn’t warming - it’s only the surface (bad data was confusing for a while….this is not true). • The sun is causing the current changes (the sun hasn’t changed in recent decades - neither brightness nor cosmic rays nor length of the cycle…). • Greenhouse gases are natural (sure, but look at how they’ve changed). • Water vapor is the dominant GHG (sure, but it responds to changes in climate - it doesn’t force them…). • Good things are happening - longer growing season at mid-latitudes, etc. (good things aren’t happening everywhere).

  31. Some Great Websites on Climate • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html • US Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)- http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htm • World Health Organization (WHO) - http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htm • US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) – http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html • National Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/ • National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics - http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ • Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html • Vital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)- http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm • World View of Global Warming (photos)- http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/ • Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer - http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.html • Global Environmental Change and Our Health - http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.html • NCAR Education and Outreach Website – www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo

  32. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored Aldous Huxley We have a duty to all the world’s people… and especially to the children of the world, to whom the future belongs - UN Millennium Goals

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