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The most recent energy projection from the Danish Energy Authority

The most recent energy projection from the Danish Energy Authority. Morten Werner February 6th, 2008. Background. Regularly projection of energy demand, production and conversion The Baseline is used in policy evaluation and monitoring Interpertation: ”Business as Usual”

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The most recent energy projection from the Danish Energy Authority

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  1. The most recent energy projection from the Danish Energy Authority Morten Werner February 6th, 2008

  2. Background • Regularly projection of energy demand, production and conversion • The Baseline is used in policy evaluation and monitoring • Interpertation: ”Business as Usual” • Alternative scenarios

  3. Macro scenario Technology Prices RAMSES EMMA Powergeneration and district heating Final energy demand in industry, service and households Electricity prices DEA Model framework

  4. Important exogenous • Energy prices • Macro economic growth • Technology • Policy • Power generation in the other nordic countries

  5. Fossil fuel prices • Fossile fuel prices updated according to World Energy outlook 2007 • DKR/USD-rate • Minor effects on prices measured in DKR on average in 2007 • CO2-price

  6. Wind power, prices • Prices 30-50 % increased compared to previous baseline • Expected efficiency gain lower than previous baseline

  7. Most recent medium/long term economic projektion from Ministry of Finance Higher expected growth rates in medium and long term compared to previous baseline Macro economic growth

  8. Policy • Energy savings policy, 2005 • New standards for buildings • Biofuels, 5.75% from 2010

  9. Nordic power generation • Denmark • Offshore wind power (Horns Rev (2009), Rød Sand II (2011) 2 x 200 MW) • Excisting coal-fired power plants upgraded and enabling biomass co-firing • Other nordic countries • Finland: Nuclear power plants (2012 and 2018) • Sweden: Postponed phase out off nuclear power

  10. Main results

  11. Gross energy demand • New statistical information • Macroeconomic growth • Transport • Less wind (long run) • Increased efficiency, North Sea

  12. Renewable energy

  13. Wind power, production

  14. More information WWW.ENS.DK • Documentation (in danish) • Tables

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