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By V. K. Kanjlia EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR (DESIGN-E&M), NHPC

Dialogue on Power Sector- Strategies for Mitigating Fuel Crisis. Accelerating Development of Alternatives - Strategy for augmenting the share of Hydro, Renewables & Nuclear. By V. K. Kanjlia EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR (DESIGN-E&M), NHPC. Grand Hotel, New Delhi July 28, 2005. INDIAN POWER SCENARIO.

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By V. K. Kanjlia EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR (DESIGN-E&M), NHPC

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  1. Dialogue on Power Sector- Strategies for Mitigating Fuel Crisis Accelerating Development of Alternatives - Strategy for augmenting the share of Hydro, Renewables & Nuclear By V. K. Kanjlia EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR (DESIGN-E&M), NHPC Grand Hotel, New Delhi July 28, 2005

  2. INDIAN POWER SCENARIO (As On 1st July 2005) • INSTALLED CAPACITY 1,21,175.01 MW • GROSS GENERATION 587.37 BUs (2004-05) • PEAKING DEMAND 87,906 MW (2004-05) • ENERGY SHORTAGE 7.3% (2004-05) • PEAKING SHORTAGE 11.7 % (2004 -05) SOURCE: CEA

  3. GROWTH PROFILE OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR 120000 INSTALLED CAPACITY (AS ON 1st July 2005) THERMAL = 80,711.64 MW HYDRO = 30,995.05 MW OTHERS = 9,468.32 MW TOTAL = 1,21,175.01 MW 100000 80000 60000 40000 Installed Capacity 20000

  4. REGIONWISE INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON 1.7.2005 (Source CEA) S.N. Region Hydro Thermal Nuclear Non-Conv. Total Note:- Thermal (Steam+Gas+Diesel)

  5. PROJECTED POWER DEMAND IN INDIA REGION ENERGY REQUIREMENT PEAK DEMAND (Mkwh) (MW) 2006-07 2011-12 2006-07 2011-12 End of End of End of End of 10th Plan 11th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan NORTHERN REGION 220820 308528 35540 49674 WESTERN REGION 224927 299075 35223 46825 SOUTHERN REGION 194102 262718 31017 42061 EASTERN REGION 69467 90396 11990 15664 NORTH-EASTERN REG. 9501 14061 1875 2789 A&N ISLANDS 236 374 49 77 LAKSHADEEP 44 70 11 17 ALL INDIA 719097 975222 115705 157107 INSTALLED CAPACITY REQUIRED (MW) 165293 224439 SOURCE : 16TH EPS

  6. DEMAND FOR POWER • The current installed capacity of 1,21,175 MW is not sufficient to meet even the current demand • Boost in industrial sector with projected economic growth is likely to increase the energy demand • As per the 16th Electric Power Survey (EPS), we need to add another 1,00,000 MW by 2012

  7. POWER SECTOR CONCERNS • Energy Shortages • Peaking Shortages • Adverse Hydro : Thermal Mix • Wide frequency excursions • Low PLF of thermal stations • Scarcity of fuels (Coal & Gas) for thermal stations

  8. GENERATION MIX Today Optimal Year 2012 (min.)

  9. IMPACT OF ADVERSE GENERATION MIX • Peak Shortages • System unreliability / Grid instability • Frequency excursions • Fast depleting fossil fuel • Environmental issues : Co2 emissions • Frequency variation damages thermal turbine parts and electrical appliances

  10. FREQUENCY VARIATION :ADVERSE EFFECTS • Equipment forced to work beyond its permissible operating parameters. • Reduction in efficiency and life span of thermal generation equipments. • Frequent breakdowns and higher maintenance expenditure in case of thermal generating equipment. • Damage to transformers. • Damage to consumer equipments. • Tripping of thermal machines leading to cascading and eventual grid failure.

  11. LOW PLF OPERATION : ADVERSE EFFECTS • Equipments are forced to operate at a capacity which is lower than their rated capacity leading to reduced efficiency. • Generation loss due to non utilization of full capacity • Cost of generation shoots up to abnormally high level ( in the range of Rs 10 per Kwh or so) at low operating PLF

  12. SHORTAGE OF FUEL (LIKE COAL) FOR THERMAL STATIONS • Many Thermal power stations are suffering due to shortage of coal • Recently about 35 thermal stations across the country are reported to be facing coal shortages • Irregular supply of coal has direct impact on the generation of the power stations

  13. GENERATION PROFILE (As On 1st July 2005) • Thermal sources (Coal, Gas and Oil/Diesel) account for as much as 70 % of Installed capacity • The share of hydropower is just 26% • The share of Nuclear Energy is meagre 3% SOURCE: CEA

  14. FACTS AND ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL FUELS Coal • Coal accounts for maximum power production in the country • Though India ranks 3rd among the coal producing countries in the world, the demand is likely to outstrip the supply in coming years • The projected shortfall by 2006/07 stands at 55 MT which is expected to increase to 105 MT by 2011-12 • Already power generation is being hit due to scarcity of coal Cont… SOURCE: TERI

  15. FACTS AND ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL FUELS Crude Oil • 70 % of Oil demand in the country is met through imports • The quantity of crude oil imports during 2003-04 was 90.434 MT ( about 2.7 times the production in country during the period i.e 33.38 MT) • Our country not insulated from the vagaries of international crude oil prices Cont… SOURCE: TERI

  16. FACTS AND ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL FUELS Gas • Natural gas demand is growing at a rate of about 6.5 % per annum • The production of natural gas in the country during 2003/04 was just able to meet the demand • The demand is forecasted to rise to 47.45 BCM by 2006/07 and further to 64 BCM by 2011/12 • The projected demand can only be met through imports from other countries Cont… SOURCE: TERI

  17. ALTERNATIVES TO THERMAL FUELS Hydro Power • Abundantly available in the country due to the existing geographical and hydrological conditions • No fear of shortage or import of fuel • Available for no cost and hence inflation free Cont…

  18. ALTERNATIVES TO THERMAL FUELS Nuclear Power • India has total nuclear power installed capacity of 3310 MW which is planned to be increased to 20,000 MW by the year 2020 • Nuclear power can play a significant role in the areas where availability of coal is less • Not suitable for taking peak load • Required to be setup away from thickly populated areas to minimize risks of radioactive pollution

  19. ALTERNATIVES TO THERMAL FUELS Wind Energy • India is 5th largest producer of wind energy in the world • Gross potential is estimated to be 45,000 MW. However, the technical potential is 13,000 MW • Current wind power generation in the country stands at 1870 MW • No environmental pollution • The assessed potential being not very high, this source can only serve as support for other energy options

  20. ALTERNATIVES TO THERMAL FUELS Geothermal Energy • There are more than 300 geothermal spring sites spread across the country • Many investigations have been carried out at geothermal fields in Chattisgarh & J&K • No site has been fully developed in the country till now to generate power • The initial cost for developing a geothermal site is very high • Can only play a support role in small limited areas

  21. ALTERNATIVES TO THERMAL FUELS Biomass Energy • Biomass based power plants are ideal for decentralized applications in rural areas • Suitable for areas where it is expensive to extend the grid or the power demand is low • Viability is strongly linked to supply mechanisms of biomass

  22. COMPARING ALTERNATIVES • Nuclear energy is expensive, has strong safety parameters, has international implications and is technically not suitable to meet the peaking load • Wind Energy potential is not sufficient to meet the power requirements alone and can play only a supporting role • Development of geothermal fields in the country is still at the beginning stage • Biomass energy suitable only to meet the low local power demand in villages etc. • Hydropower has abundant potential, is environment friendly, inflation free and is best suited for peaking loads

  23. THE SOLUTION • Development of hydropower at an accelerated pace • Will meet the peaking shortages thus improving the system stability • Will improve the Hydro : Thermal Mix • Will control the frequency excursions within specified limits • Will reduce dependence on import oriented fossil fuels • Will provide pollution free power • Will lead to socio economic development of remotely located backward areas where hydro plants will be set up • Will help in providing energy security to our country

  24. HYDRO POWER : CURRENT SCENARIO TOTAL POTENTIAL ASSESSED BY CEA A) AT 60% LOAD FACTOR : 84,044 MW AS INSTALLED CAPACITY : 1,48,701 MW B) PUMPED STORAGE SCHEMES : 93,920 MW C) SMALL HYDRO : 6782 MW TOTAL : 2,49,403 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY DEVELOPED : 30,995 MW

  25. NEED FOR HYDRO • India is having abundant potential for hydro power • Only 21% of the available potential has been harnessed till now and rest is yet to be tapped • Billions of units of untapped hydropower is going waste into sea • Trends of fuel selection for energy generation in the pastneeds rethinking • There is an urgent need to shift our priorities from conventional fossil fuels to renewable options like hydropower

  26. HYDRO - INITIATIVES The Govt. of India has off-late recognized the need for augmenting the share of this renewable source of energy and have taken many initiatives- • Introduction of Hydro Policy in 1998 • The Ranking studies for about 400 potential hydro sites conducted by CEA to prioritize implementation • Three Stage Clearance Procedure for Hydro Projects to Streamline the approval mechanism • 50,000 MW Hydro initiative of Govt. of India during 2003. Cont…

  27. HYDRO - INITIATIVES • Enactment of Electricity Act 2003 • Allocation of appreciable share in capacity addition programme for X and XI Plans • Various incentives and concessions to promote investment • Renovation, Modernisation & Uprating of existing Hydro Stations (in X Plan, a total of 62 Hydro schemes totaling 9978 MW and in XI Plan, a total of 50 schemes totaling 8534 MW is targeted).

  28. STRATEGIES TO BE ADOPTED FOR SPEEDY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDRO

  29. STRATEGIES • FASTER CLEARANCES Faster clearances from statutory bodies can help in reducing the overall completion time of the projects • MINIMIZING GEOLOGICAL & HYDROLOGICAL UNCERTAINILIES Special care needs to be taken at the Survey & Investigation stage so as to reduce the risks of geological & hydrological uncertainties at the execution stage • PRIORITISING PROJECTS FOR IMPLEMENTATION Cont…

  30. STRATEGIES • Elimination of time & cost overrun • Choosing favourable sites for projects • Innovative solution for resettlement and rehabilitation • Encouraging private sector participation directly or through JV with public sector

  31. CONCLUSION Hydropower is the best available renewable energy option which can go a long way in mitigating the fuel crisis, improve the overall power scenario and provide energy security to the country.

  32. THANK YOU

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