“Wind Power in Pakistan: Many Talks, Few Turbines!” BY AVM (R) S J RAZA Dawood Power

1. “Wind Power in Pakistan: Many Talks, Few Turbines!” BY AVM (R) S J RAZA Dawood Power انداز بیاں گرچہ بہت خوب نہیں ہے شاید گہ ترے دل میں اتر جائے میری بات

2. Those who can – Do Those who can’t – Teach I have slightly modified this to read: Those who can – Do Those who can’t – Give Talks!

3. If a country has these renewable resources: Wind Power Potential 350,000 MW Solar Power Potential 600,000 MW Hydro Power Potential 50,000 MW Tidal Power Potential Not Estimated Estimated RE Potential 1,000,000 MW And yet that country cannot fulfill a meager national requirement of 20,000 MW!!

4. The story does not end here, • the same country also has: • Coal deposits of 185 billion tons • that may be equated to • Oil deposits of Saudi Arabia and Iran combined!! • And yet this country does not produce a single megawatt by coal. • It rather breaks its back paying for import bill of Oil to meet a part of its power needs.

5. Wait, the story continues… And the same country developed its own nuclear programme that successfully made it the 7th entrant to the prestigious “GLOBAL BOMB CLUB”. But this country failed to develop its own nuclear power reactors to produce power for its increasing needs !! As such not a single megawatt is produced by indigenous nuclear means!! SO, what do you call this country? P A K I S T A N!!!

6. Energy Mix Coal 51% 66% 6% Oil 35% 20% 30% Gas 9% 5% 50% Nuclear 2% 1% 1% Hydro 2% 7% 13% Renewable 1% 1% 0%

7. Power Production Coal 60% 0% Hydro 20% 31% Thermal 11% 66% Nuclear 3% 3% Renewable 6% 0%

8. AFFECTS OF POWER SHORTAGE • Poor agriculture…no tube wells work…no timely irrigation…hungry masses • Poor industrial performance…idle time of machines increasing…forcing closures…importing stuff from China… losing hard earned FE • Poor industrial growth … shortage of jobs for the boys coming out of school…frustration…increase in crime…madrassah population increasing • Cottage industry suffered…employment of women in stitching industry could not be multiplied.

9. AFFECTS OF POWER SHORTAGE…Contd • Textile industry could not function competitively…export of cotton • instead of garments…Bangladesh/Egypt importing cotton from us, value • adding and exporting garments to earn sizeable FE • Ultimately Pakistan left behind in Asian trade and world trade • markets.

10. Future Power Scenario Current 2010 2015 2020 Peak Demand 18,091mw 21,678mw 31128mw 39,372mw Shortage 2807 mw 926 mw 1572 mw 9634 mw %Short 15% 5% 5% 25%

11. ALTERNATE ENERGY The dawn of Alternate Energy occurred in Pakistan in 2003 with the GOP establishing the AEDB as a one window facilitator for the investor. AEDB’s target was a minimum of 300 MW of wind power by 2010. It seemed achievable at that time, but now that the year 2010 is round the corner, the target will definitely slip.

12. MAJOR REASONS FOR DELAY • Stakeholders confronted with new technology • Regulator did not have requisite knowledge and failed to trust Investors • Power Policy and other documents like the draft PPA, IA etc took time to prepare • Land allotment by Sind Govt took long time • Upfront tariff announced was not in touch with reality • Individual tariff petitions took longer time

13. MAJOR REASONS FOR DELAY…Contd • Turbine Manufacturers got vary of Pakistan Market due to the wave of LOI Holders approaching them • 2007, security and political stability of the country started deteriorating • Oil price hike caused a boom in wind turbine industry, resulting in scarcity of equipment in the market • Finally when the oil prices eased out and so did the wind turbine market, the global financial crisis hit the world

14. DAWOOD POWER PROJECT • LOI Obtained • Land Allocated • Soil Survey Completed • Feasibility Approved • Generation License Obtained • Equipment Finalised • EPC Contract Signed • Tariff Determined by Nepra • Ready to Launch!

15. Ladies and Gentlemen I wish to end my talk on a positive note YES WE CAN !!

16. WAY FORWARD All countries are framing policies to support their industry and businesses during current crisis In this hour of trial, we look to the Govt of Pakistan for supporting wind IPPs The way forward is Public Private Partnership, providing confidence to stake holders.

17. P P P • AEDB should pick 3 – 5 of the leading projects • Form Joint Venture partnerships with them 40:60 or even 30:70 • Launch at least five projects within 2009. • This will ensure at least 250 MW of wind energy by end 2010/early 2011.

18. Recommendations • GOP to redraw the power map, • eliminating load shedding 2015 onwards • Power production by indigenous resources • (renewable, coal, nuclear) be given priority • Public-Private partnership workable model • in the power sector be introduced • Dependence on Oil for power production be • gradually reduced

19. ہیں اور بھی دنیا میں سخنور بہت اچھے گہتے ہیں گہ غالب گا ہے انداز بیاں اور thank you for your attention

20. SUPPLY & DEMAND POSITION: 2008-2020 Prepared by PEPCO System UPDATED ON 19.9.2008

21. India

22. China

23. Pakistan

24. India

25. Pakistan

27. Project Milestones-DPPL • Milestone Date • Letter of Interest (LOI) Nov 22/04 • Feasibility study accepted by AEDB Dec 26/05 • Land allocated Aug 2006 • NEPRA approval of up-front tariff (unbankable conditions)Sept 12/06 • Generation License Application Nov 2006 • Generation License issued Dec 29/06 • Tariff Petition application Feb 15/07 45 mths • Nepra tariff determination Apr 27/07 • Tariff Review Petition May 05/07 • Tariff approval July 07 • Tariff Revised Petition July 08 • Tariff Revised Approval Oct 08 • Turbine Supply Agreement Nov 08 • PPA and IA signing Nov 08 • Financing Closure Dec 08 • Start Construction Mar 2009 • Turbine Delivery Jun - Aug 09 • Commercial Operation Date Mar 2010 19 mths

28. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH