Competing In the Changing South

1. Competing In the Changing South Ted Abernathy tabernathy@southern.org

2. “Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth” Mike Tyson

3. The Last Decade Was….Not Good Employment Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global

4. The Last Decade Was….Not Good Real GDP Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global

5. The Last Decade Was….Not Good Real HH Income Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global

6. USA Total Nonfarm Payroll In thousands Source: BLS, Jan 2012

7. Unemployment SummaryJanuary 2011 National Unemployment rate in January, 8.3%, down from 9.4% in December 2010 For Whites (7.4%), Blacks (13.6%), Hispanics (10.5%) Unemployment Rate By Education Source: BLS Jan 2012

8. Employment Monthly Net Change 2000- Jan 2012 In thousands Source: BLS Nov 2011

9. The Stock Market

11. (NATIONAL)

12. US % Employment Change December 2010-December 2011 Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS, Jan, 2012

13. Total % Manufacturing Employment Change December 2010-December 2011 The American South States and Territories represent 34.3% of all US Manufacturing employment in Dec 2011 Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS, Jan, 2012

14. Southern States 5-Year % Employment Changes Total -1,478,000 lost jobs Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2006- Nov 2011

15. Southern States 1-Year % Employment Changes Total +562,300 gained jobs Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2010- Nov 2011

16. Southern States 1-Year Employment Projections 2012 Source: Moody’s Analysis and USA Today Jan 11,2012

17. Change “ The future ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra

18. The Churn in the Economy

19. Business Employment Net Private Job Gains and Losses By Quarter Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011

20. Business Employment Dynamics (Churn) Net Private Job Gains and Losses In millions Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics, August 2011

21. Businesses Opening and Closing Source: US Small Business Administration Aug 2011

22. “Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society.” 40 Years Ago Alvin Toffler Wrote That the Pace of Change…

23. 2007 • Bear Stearns, Leman Brothers, WaMu, Wachovia • MySpace • Kindle, IPad, Twitter, Hulu

24. What Is the New Normal? “The future is not some place we are going to, but one we are creating.” John Schaar

25. Trends Changing Our World Demographic Shifts Complexity Technology (Speed) Intensifying Competition Urbanization Natural Resources Global Interdependence The Omni Customer Corporate Integration Changing Institutions Radical Decentralization The Role of Talent Specialization Community Resilience

26. Trends Changing Our World Demographic Shifts Complexity Technology (Speed) Intensifying Competition Urbanization Natural Resources Global Interdependence The Omni Customer Corporate Integration Changing Institutions Radical Decentralization The Role of Talent Specialization Community Resilience

27. Global Interdependence

29. Top % GDP Growers in 2012 • Macau • Mongolia • Libya • Iraq • Angola • Niger • China • Ethiopia • Rwanda • Laos Source: The Economist, The World in 2012

30. Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. Top Region: South Top Sector: Manufacturing In $ Billions Source: Southern Business & Development, Summer 2011

31. Foreign Direct Investment 2010 Source: Rediff.com, Global FDI

32. U.S. Foreign Direct Investment In $ Billions Source: BEA

33. U.S. Exports & Imports (Goods) In $Millions Source: Census, World Almanac 2009 & U.S. BEA 2010

34. U.S. Exports 2009-2011 42% Increase Source: BLS Sept 2011

35. Less than 1% of U.S. firms export and of those that do more than ½ export to only one country

36. Export Customers of the Future By 2020 80% of the middle income consumers in the world will live outside the “developed” countries Source: Adler-Miller-McCune 2008

37. The Role of Talent

38. Work Shifts Creative Work Routine Work Outsourced Routine Work Machines Routine Work Source: National Center on Education and the Economy, Tough Choices or Tough Times, 2007

39. Educational Requirements For U.S. Jobs 1973-2018 Source: Center on Education and the Workforce, Dec 2009

40. Middle-Skills • Require more than a high school degree but less than a BA degree • 52% of employers said in 2011 manpower survey that they were struggling to fill positions, an all-time high

41. Southern Skills Mismatch Source: Middle skill jobs in the American South’s Economy, National Skills Coalition, August 2011

42. National Association of Manufacturers 2011 Skills Gap • 67% report shortage of qualified workers • 56% expect shortages to get worse (3-5 yrs) • 5% of current jobs unfilled due to no qualified Source: National Association of Manufacturers 2011 Skills Gap

43. Demographics

44. USA Annual Population Growth Source: Brookings Jan 20, 2012

45. Growth- Demographics Between 2010-2020 3 out of every 4 new workers in the USA will be Latino

46. Growth- Demographics

47. Growth Last decade US population grew at the lowest rate since the great depression

48. Tell Me About YOUR Place “Human beings reason largely by means of stories, not by mounds of data. Stories are memorable, they teach.” Tom Peters, A Passion for Excellence

49. The American Dream “life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social class or circumstances of birth.” American Dream, James Truslow Adams, 1931

50. Vision For America • Take 20 seconds and think about America in 2040