Welcome & Overview 2 nd Annual Workshop “What are National Security Threats?”

1. Kathleen D. Morrison Co-Director, JTAC Professor of Anthropology Director, Center for International Studies The University of Chicago Charles M. Macal Co-Director, JTAC Director, Center for Complex Adaptive Agent Systems Simulation Argonne National Laboratory Welcome & Overview2nd Annual Workshop“What are National Security Threats?”

2. What is the Joint Threat Anticipation Center (JTAC)? • Joint venture of the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory • Research, Education, Modeling, and Communication • Innovative, forward-thinking work on National Security Threats • Interdisciplinary, international • Leading the nation in integrating social science and technology • Constructing the foundations of computational social sciencefor applications to national security • Actively developing and recruiting a new generation of researchers • A unique institutional base; cooperative “Center of Excellence” • Dynamic and flexible in project selection and execution • Discovering the “hidden gems” of threat research • Creating a permanent “knowledge management” base

3. Basic Propositions • Efforts to identify, understand and anticipate threats to U.S. national security require an appreciation of social, cultural, economic and psychological processes as well as a grounding in regional and historical contexts. • An integrative, cross-disciplinary approach is needed to advance efficacy in both modeling and practical decision making relevant to courses of action. • Validation of formal and computational models relative to social science theory is the key to establishing standards against which models should be judged.

4. Why Argonne and Chicago? • Argonne: Decision and Information Sciences • Multidisciplinary approach to research • Systems: analysis, integration, engineering • Computational social sciences, agent-based modeling and simulation • Expertise in delivery of real-world solutions • The University of Chicago: Academic Excellence • Renowned for innovative social science: Political science, economics, sociology, anthropology, psychology, linguistics, history, human development • Area Studies and language • Computational Institute • Ongoing Collaborations • Conferences & Workshops • Courses & Training • Research Projects & Publication • Students

5. The Center for International Studies

6. Argonne is a Multi-purpose National Laboratory Operated by the University of Chicago for the U.S. Dept. of Energy

7. Objectives • Establish a recognized “center of excellence” for threat anticipation expertise, promotion, and products • Develop the science of threat anticipation through the support of relevant research and education • Conduct new social, cultural, behavioral, and economic research relevant to anticipating future threats • Develop frameworks and models for integrating cultural knowledge in meaningful ways to support policy analysis • Develop a repository for models, publications, and institutional memory of threat anticipation • Facilitate a broader dialogue within the research community and between the research, operations, and policy communities • Provide activities and contacts that facilitate federal interagency participation and international collaboration

8. JTAC Activities: Overview • Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation • Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling • Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools • Education and Training

9. Development of models, databases, and other tools • Research in Support of Threat Anticipation: • Terrorist Strategy and Tactics • Suicide Terrorism Database and Analysis • Failed States, Insurgent Sanctuaries, & Terrorist Havens • Socio-Cultural Processes and Precursors to Terrorism Terrorist Strategy and Tactics • Poverty, Inequality and Terrorism: GIS Analysis • State Versus Non-State Actors in Territorial Disputes • Language Studies Related to Threat Anticipation and Terrorism • Automatic Machine Translation from Poorly Studied Languages • Emotive Dictionary of Arabic Conflict Terms

10. JTAC Activities: Overview • Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation • Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling • Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools • Education and Training

11. Frameworks for Verification & Validation of Threat Modeling • 2005 Spring TAP Workshop, April 7-9, 2005 Threat Anticipation: Social Science Methods and Models http://jtac.uchicago.edu/conferences/05 • Threat-related research • ASCO model review and panel discussion • Validation of models and relevant social science theory • Government requirements and user needs • Breakout sessions: Area Studies • Validation Science Initiative at Argonne • Validation of frameworks for agent based models and social science theory • 2006 Spring TAP Workshop, April 3-5, 2006

12. JTAC Activities: Overview • Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation • Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling • Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools • Education and Training

13. Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools • Establishment of JTAC web site, jtac.uchicago.edu • Publication of research data, findings • Detailed workshop and conference reports • Organization of JTAC e-mail list, listhost.uchicago.edu/mailman/listinfo/jtac • 187 subscribers, 137 from 45 distinct domestic and international government and military organizations. • Hosting and Visits: academic centers of excellence, national labs, & US and international government departments and agencies • Hosted Delegation from Finnish Ministry of Defense/EU • Defense Science and Technology Laboratory, UK • Department of Defense & Department of Foreign Affairs/Trade, Australia

14. JTAC Activities: Overview • Development of Knowledge, Models, Databases, and other tools for Threat Anticipation • Frameworks for Verification and Validation of Threat Modeling • Communication, Collaboration, and Dissemination of Information and Tools • Education and Training

15. Education and Training • Training graduate students • Enhancing early integration of social science, area studies, and modeling through internships and collaborative research • In FY06, established intern program for advanced Ph.D candidates • Recruiting and connecting students with relevant interests and expertise • Established Post-Doctoral “Bridge” Position • Coordinates students, university faculty, and Argonne researchers • Enhancing participation in existing programs • Argonne courses, Chicago graduate workshops

16. Workshop Overview • Broad, expert perspectives on national security threats • Biological, Political, Nuclear, Terrorism • Showcase recent JTAC-sponsored research • Breakout sessions on insurgency, terrorism, inter-state conflict • Highlighting graduate research initiatives • Promote participant interaction • Work on social science modeling • Verification, Validation, and Vetting of social and cultural models • Examples of historical and computational research on insurgency