CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)

1. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. http://www.clivar.org

2. CLIVAR Mission • To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. Science <-> Applications

3. CLIVAR Goals and Objectives • Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … • Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … • Extend the record of climate variability … • Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

4. WOCE 1990-2002 TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  SOLAS 2001 -> SPARC 1992 WGNE WGCMWGSFIPABWGSAT CLIVAR 1995  ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 CliC 2000

5. WCRP COPESCoordinatedObservation & Prediction of the Earth System • Seamless Prediction of the Total Physical Climate System from Weeks Through Decades • Synthesizes Ongoing Observational and Modeling Activities of the all Relevant WCRP Components • Central Themes include: • Describe Structure and Variability of the Total Climate System Through Modeling and Observational Studies • Assess the Predictability of the Total Climate System • Understand Mechanisms and Uncertainty of Regional Climate Change Prediction • CLIVAR has the central role in delivery of COPES • COPES Project Office asnd website

7. CLIVAR Assessment (SSG-13) • Organised by: • CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs • Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” • Overall programme structure & the ICPO

8. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

9. CLIVAR Assessment (SSG-13) • Organised by: • CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs • Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” • Overall programme structure & the ICPO • Team of 6 assessors and SSG liaisons • Inputs • Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire • CLIVAR web pages & documents • Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions • CLIVAR Conference • Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 • Subsequent analysis of outcomes

10. Outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Key areas for science development • Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback • Regional/global synthesis & observation links, in particular ocean reanalysis activity & related data management issues • Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC • Links between process studies & model improvement • Cross CLIVAR effort on climate indices • Ocean observing strategy including hydrography & carbon links • Pan WCRP monsoon activity (with GEWEX) • Applications of CLIVAR science

12. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Management Foci • Continued programme assessment • Annual workshops against the 4 science foci in turn (ENSO, ACC, Monsoons, Decadal/THC) and (additionally) the ocean’s role in climate • Overall CLIVAR structure • CLIVAR’s global<=>regional panel interactions • CLIVAR visibility and networking • Overall CLIVAR data and information management • Web site development • New structure for the ICPO

13. CLIVAR assessment: Particular issues for WGOMD SSG-13: • Recognised the WGOMD role in performing the WGOMD assessment of ocean model performance in ocean-only experiments. • However it felt it would also be important for WGOMD to focus on the role of the ocean as a component of the coupled climate system and on how improvements in ocean models impact on coupled models, • Requested WGOMD (with WGCM and WGSIP) to work with GSOP on how they will interact in the future, in particular on what observation simulation experiments are feasible to give guidance on observation system design. • Requested efforts be made to strengthening of the links between between WGOMD and the CLIVAR ocean basin panels, in particular in regional assessment of WGOMD global model coordinated experiments

14. Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Summary Response • On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes: ENSO, Monsoons, THC/Decadal and ACC. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four themes. • ACC representation to be increased on SSG • Global perspective/framework to be provided by GSOP, WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD, and CCD • Global to regional perspective provided by Monsoon Panels for VAMOS, VACS, and AAMP and Ocean Basin Panels for Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans • WGOMD to consider strengthening assessment of ocean models in coupled framework, links to GSOP (especially in respect of OSSEs) and interactions with ocean basin panels

15. CLIVAR SSG 14 (Buenos Aires, 19-22 April 2006) • Review progress in developing global-regional links • Consider roadmap for CLIVAR input to COPES • Assess progress against the key science foci • Review CLIVAR’s efforts in the role of the oceans in climate as an additional science focus point • Consider strategies for: • developing CLIVAR’s key science foci • strengthening regional-global links • Pan-WCRP monsoon activity and CLIVAR-GEWEX intersection • CLIVAR data management … • Review Panel/WG developments overall • Consider CLIVAR visibility and outreach • Review overall CLIVAR structure • Draft agenda and detailed information on format and reporting to be sent out soon. Inputs will also be used for reporting to JSC XVII (Pune, 6-11 March 2006)