David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program

1. Linkages between WGSIP and US CLIVAR WGSIP Meeting January 2009 David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program www.usclivar.org legler@usclivar.org

2. Outline • Relevant US activities • Drought Working Group (Randy) • Decadal Predictability Working Group • CPTs • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) • PPAI Panel • Coordinating efforts - how?

3. Drought Working Group (16 members: GEWEX, Service Providers, International Scientists) • Defining drought (observations and related model predictands) • Coordinated model experiments (Randy’s presentation) • Organized Drought Workshop, October 2008 • Key issues/questions: • Given the predictability of some droughts (as suggested by numerous studies) exploring how we move forward on • Coordinating/encouraging further drought predictability studies? • Encouraging cooperation/coordination of S–I prediction models for applications such as drought prediction? • Is it time to begin to think about experimental prediction systems for long-term drought (particularly on decadal time scales)? http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html

4. WCRP Extremes Goals • To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users. • To design an intercomparison framework through which both observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated. • To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world. • To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes • To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc). GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to the following: Many relevant activities within GEWEX and CLIVAR will continue Catalyze & coordinate a focus on drought, e.g. expand/link what the US has developed (e.g., Working Group, DRICOMP) to other activities, e.g. CEOP, CSEs, HRF project analysis, international analysis of US runs, etc Scope and range of activities to be worked out over next several months

5. (US) CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group GOAL 1 • Define a framework to distinguish natural variability from anthropogenically forced variability on decadal time scale for the purpose of assessing predictability of decadal-scale climate variations • assess the extent to which analysis of decadal variability and predictability depends on the method of separation, as well as the pros and cons of different methodologies. • white paper - BAMS(?) • special session on Isolating Natural Decadal Variability in the Climate Records Chairs: Amy Solomon, Arun Kumar, Lisa Goddard

6. CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group GOAL 2 • Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions/simulations. • Identify common metrics to assess the simulation of decadal variability in climate models • Use these metrics to investigate mechanisms that cause predictability on decadal time scales • Organize a workshop on these Metrics to Assess Decadal Predictions in Climate Models • When AR5 decadal prediction database becomes available, recommend a call by (US) funding agencies for numerous small projects (similar to DRICOMP) to investigate decadal predictability in the AR5 initialized decadal climate projections. Timeline: beginning Jan 2009….run approx 2 years

7. CPTs - Climate Process and modeling Teams • Initial CPTs (several $million research investment) focusing on IPCC-class models have ended • Whitepapers highlighting successes and lessons learned nearing completion • Planning for new CPTs in 2010+ • Processes that vex prediction systems are similar to those for IPCC-class models…. Possible opportunity for US and other centers to participate…

8. US Ocean Research Priorities Plan (ORPP) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): Implications for Rapid Climate Change A Near-Term Priority (1 of 4) of the ORPP • Anticipated Outcomes • Enhanced understanding of the AMOC system • Design of a comprehensive MOC observation and monitoring program. • New forecasting capabilities • Improved ocean models, coupled models, and ocean analyses for their initialization. • Characterization of the impacts and feedbacks of changes in the MOC on ecosystems, carbon budgets, and regional climate. • 5-year Program • Potential of $5M-15M per year • AMOC Implementation Strategy released 10/24/07 • Int’l CLIVAR Atlantic Panel is coordinating int’l activities Linked to CCSP

9. U.S. AMOC Scientific Objectives • The design and implementation of an AMOC monitoring system • An assessment of AMOC’s role in the global climate • An assessment of AMOC predictability Recommended Activities • Develop an AMOC state estimate or “fingerprint” • Monitor AMOC transports • Evaluate coherence and connectivity of AMOC circulation and transports • Assess AMOC observing systems with ocean models • Reconstruct AMOC variability and associated property fields • Model the ocean state during the instrumental period • Develop longer-term proxies for AMOC variability • Diagnose mechanisms of AMOC variability and change • Assess AMOC predictability • Determine impact and feedback of AMOC variability • Assess role of AMOC in producing observed changes

10. Interagency Group Science Team Susan Lozier, chair Duke University Molly Baringer NOAA AOML Jim Carton University of Maryland Ping Chang Texas A&M Tom Delworth NOAA GFDL Kathleen Donohue University of Rhode Island Sirpa Hakkinen NASA/GSFC Bill Johns RSMAS - Univ. of Miami George Halliwell RSMAS - Univ. of Miami Kathie Kelly University of Washington Craig Lee University of Washington Tony Lee NASA JPL Tim Liu NASA JPL Peter Minnett RSMAS - Univ. of Miami Uwe Send Scripps Inst. of Oceanography Fiamma Straneo Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst. John Toole Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst. Josh Willis NASA JPL Carl Wunsch MIT AMOC Organization

11. U.S. CLIVAR Organization US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee Inter-Agency Group (IAG) Federal Program Managers Committee U.S. CLIVAR Office “Best Practices” Research Priorities Coordination Predictability, Predictions & Applications Interface (PPAI) Panels Phenomenology, Observations, & Synthesis (POS) Process Studies & Model improvement (PSMI) • As of January 2009: • Ocean Salinity (completed) • MJO (completed…Int’l development) • Drought (nearly completed) • Western Boundary Current (workshop) • High-latitude fluxes • Decadal Predictability (initiated Jan 09) International CLIVAR Working Groups (short-term) Working Groups

12. PPAI Panel Interactions • Overlap of chairs with WGSIP (Kirtman) helpful • During next few months we will invite new members and energize the group…

13. END

14. Extra slides

15. CLIVAR MJO Workshop Recommendations New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation 1) Where possible, develop scalar metrics of MJO model skill for use in multi-model comparisons and for tracking model fidelity. 2) Work with the observation, model-development, and theoretical communities to develop process-oriented diagnostics to improve our insight into the physical mechanisms for robust MJO simulation. 3) Continue to explore multi-scale interactions & convectively-coupled equatorial waves, both in observations and high resolution modeling frameworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic processes 4) Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics under operational conditions 5) Develop an experimental modeling framework to assess MJO predictability and forecast skill from contemporary/operational models. BAMS Meeting Summary