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Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2009

Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2009. Mr. Evan Kuchera JAG/OCM Chair. Overview. JAG/OCM membership Status of Initiatives

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Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Fall COPC 2009

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  1. Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) updateFall COPC 2009 Mr. Evan Kuchera JAG/OCM Chair

  2. Overview • JAG/OCM membership • Status of Initiatives • COPC AI 2009 1-7: AFWA, FNMOC, and NAVOCEANO will review, sign, and implement the WestPac alignment plan, Option 1, and continue to explore option 2 • COPC AI 2009 1-8: CSAB will coordinate a workshop for subject matter experts to plan development and testing of a WestPac ensemble intended for future operations. Plan will include development milestones, methods for developing and managing ensemble diversity, type of products, number of members, and an estimate of resources • Recommendations

  3. JAG/OCM Membership • AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair) • NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta • FNMOC—Roger Stocker • NAVO—Frank Bub • NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus • CNMOC—Steve Payne • OFCM—Ken Barnett • Recent changes shown in red

  4. COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup • Summary: FNMOC/AFWA align one domain (WestPac) and exchange minimum set of necessary variables on identical grid • Serves as “hot” backup in case of outage • Pathfinder for full alignment of common-area domains • Pathfinder for future ensemble alignment

  5. COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup • Final coordination in JAG/OCM • Discussed issues with C versus A grid • Interpolation of C grid winds with A grid surface features (i.e. roughness lengths) during integration causes smoothing and degraded coastal wind forecasts • A grid will be used for exchange—issues will be addressed in future model development • Removed wave-related variables from required output • Final coordination in CSAB • OFCM re-organized document (much cleaner) • Outstanding technical issues being resolved

  6. COPC AI 2009 1-7Align WestPac for Backup • Option 2 exploration • NAVO requested domain cover larger area for longer forecast run • Resources not yet available for expansion

  7. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Summary: Develop plan to exchange mesoscale ensemble output for the mutual benefit of each center • Face to face with FNMOC/AFWA • Agreement that unresolved science issues preclude laying out too many exact details at this time • Instead, agreed on “vision” items to guide development tracks (next 4 slides…)

  8. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Goals of ensemble exchange: • Increase membership at low cost • Independent uncertainty estimates from diverse modeling systems • Technical developers should discuss progress/challenges frequently and informally • Alignment should be reserved for broad areas consistently important to DoD (East Asia and SWA).

  9. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Resolutions should be kept somewhat coarse to free resources for higher resolution ensembles made locally • Still get benefit of diverse multi-center initial conditions for high-res locally-generated ensembles • All datasets (aligned or not) should be made available via “come and get it” servers and JMBL with GRIB2 used as much as possible • Each center will determine its own ensemble design with no veto powers • Information about strengths and weaknesses should be shared frequently.

  10. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Diagnosis algorithms should be shared and leveraged • For variables of mutual importance, development should be divided between agencies to reduce duplication of effort • Long term goal should be a unified ensemble post-processor • Land surface ensembling will be an AFWA effort, while sea surface ensembling will be a FNMOC/NAVO effort • Each can leverage the work of the other as needed

  11. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Raw members should always be exchanged to retain physical mesoscale features of importance • Statistical information can be made locally, or exchanged in addition to the raw members • Timeliness requirements can be somewhat relaxed • Older ensemble information is often superior to newer deterministic information

  12. COPC AI 2009 1-8Ensembles • Mesoscale ensemble workshop in Boulder 22-25 Sept • Brought together academia and operators to publish a white paper on requirements to get to a national mesoscale ensemble asset • Broader in scope than AI 2009 1-8; some overlap • Workshop observations • CONUS-centric—little discussion of OCONUS • Will DoD and DoC be separate on mesoscale ensemble modeling?

  13. JAG Recommendations • Alignment of model domains (COPC AI 2009 1-7) • Continue AI 2009 1-7 until work is complete (late 2009) • New AI: Investigate and propose SWA alignment area • Ensembles (COPC AI 2009 1-8) • Close AI 2009 1-8 • New AI: Delineate algorithm development responsibilities for variables of shared interest • Establish sub-committee to work out details • Unite around common ensemble post-processing software before ensembles become more firmly entrenched in ops

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