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Migration in Kazakhstan: Trends and Linkages to Migrant Characteristics. Dauren Chagirov Research analyst, RAKURS Center for Economic Analysis dchagirov@cear.kz. Objectives. To provide an analysis of migration processes in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008
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Migration in Kazakhstan: Trends and Linkages to Migrant Characteristics Dauren Chagirov Research analyst, RAKURS Center for Economic Analysis dchagirov@cear.kz
Objectives To provide an analysis of migration processes in Kazakhstan in 1999-2008 Attempt to answer the questions: What is true pattern of migration in Kazakhstan? Is the incidence of migration decreasing or increasing? Is the data consistent with economic situation and political framework presented?
The migration data in Kazakhstan comes from two sources: Data on foreign labor force attracted (registration is based on tickets of arrival and leaving in registration committees of Ministry of Justice of Republic of Kazakhstan) Data based on quota of foreign labor force attracted from Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Republic of Kazakhstan
Findings The data fit the economic events that dominated the country: with economic crisis emigration increased, whereas immigration decreased People with higher education are most of migrants. Outflow of Kazakh ethnicities, mainly with higher education started to exaggerate since 2007 Outflow of Russian ethnicities stabilized in the beginning of 2000s, started to rise in 2007 and demonstrates increasing trends
Substantial deterioration of economy of Kazakhstan after the collapse of Soviet Union had its negative effect on demographic situation in Kazakhstan: The negative influence was reflected in falling of birth rates and rising of death rates Even more disastrous effect was observed with migration of people
Between 1990 and 1999, on net, 11% of Kazakhstan population left country. At the peak of economic crisis in first half of 1990s, about 3% of Kazakhstan’s population has emigrated(Becker et al. 2005)
Emigration was falling on average 20% in 1999-2006 Immigration was rising on average 10% in 1999-2005 In 2006, emigration conversely increased by 26% relatively to 2005 In 2005, immigration conversely decreased by 10% relatively to 2004
The research conducted in the area of migration within former Soviet Union countries distinguished among two general characters of migration: economic and ethnic. In 1991-1999 both economic and ethnic reasons induced the migration with ethnic factors being the dominant power (Locher 2002, Grigorichev 2008) In 1999-2005 economic factors were the main drivers of migration (Becker 2003, 2005; An and Becker 2009)
Emigration of Russian ethnicity increased by almost 30% in 2007 relative to 2006 Emigration of other ethnicities increased by almost 23%in2007 relative to 2006
The same decreasing trends were observed in 1999-2006 as with ethnicities. The emigration of those aged 16-29, 30-49 and 50-64 correspondingly increased by 21.5, 35 and 13.36% in 2007 relative to 2006. In 2008 these rates raised again, thus establishing continuous increasing trend. Emigration rate, by age
External immigration in Kazakhstan of Kazakh ethnicity reveals several interesting issues: break in stably increasing immigration trend of Kazakh ethnicities (the number of Kazakhs migrated to Kazakhstan increased by almost 4.5 times in 2005 relative to 1999: from 10909 in 1999 to 57850 in 2005) beginning from 2005, the return of Kazakhs to their motherland reflected downturn. in 2008 this number decreased by approximately 40% in comparison with 2005.
Trends & Challenges Outflow of the most educated part of population in 2007 Repatriation of Kazakhs ethnicities back to their historical motherland reflects downturn; barrier to government in its attempt to solve the socio-demographic situation of Kazakhstan and thus signal inefficiency of program of repatriation. Emigration of mostly young, able bodied part of population is in existence. Emigration processes in Kazakhstan impose substantial restrictions on attempts of Kazakhstan government to build up non-oil economy.