GSP Activities Related to Earth Observation -Achievements-

1. GSP Activities Related to Earth Observation-Achievements- ESTEC 14 September 2006

2. Recent GSP Studies in Earth Observation • Enabling Observation Techniques for Future Solid Earth Missions (Astrium – D) • Laser Doppler Interferometry Mission For Determination of the Earth’s Gravity Field (Alenia-Alcatel Space – I) • Techniques and Space-borne Concepts for the Study of Earthquake Precursors and Analysis of Associated Atmospheric Effects (Noveltis – F) • Combination of Spaceborne, Airborne and In-situ Gravity Measurements in Support of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Mapping (DNSC– DK) • Gravity Improvement of Continental Slope and Shelf Ocean Circulation Modelling (Noveltis – F) • Monitoring and Modelling Individual Sources of Mass Distribution and Transport in the Earth System by Means of Satellites (ITT released) • Requirements and Concepts for Atmospheric Composition / Chemistry Missions (KNMI – NL) • Observation of Techniques and Mission Concepts for Monitoring of CO2 from Space (IPSL – F) • Scientific Analysis of Upper Tropospheric Limb-sounding Observations (IFAC/-I) • Improvement of Angular Dependence Models (UoV – E) • Advances in Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Research by Development of Coupled Chemistry-Dynamics Data Assimilation Models (MSC-CDN)

3. Exploiting the longer wavelength data for the improvement of surface process modelling 2 parallel studies (ISSIA-I, LMU – D) Assessing SAR calibration requirements using geophysical retrieval algorithms (ITT released) Study of Techniques and Sensors for Observation of Extreme Weather Events (ASPI-F) Feasibility Study of Imaging the Antarctic Ice using a Spaceborne P-band radar (VEXCEL - UK) Influence of Solar Activity Cycles on Earth’s Climate (DNSC - DK) Scientific Assessment of Space borne High Temperature Event (HTE) Observing Mission Concept (DLR – D) Impact assessment of solar induced vegetation fluorescence observations from space for improving dynamic vegetation models - ITT Synergy of passive Microwave and Optical/SAR Observations for Soil Moisture Estimates with Emphasis on Spatial Dis-aggregation Techniques – (INRA - F) Recent GSP Studies in Earth Observation

4. Enabling Observation Techniques for Future Solid Earth Missions (EADS-Astrium – D) • Objective: to identify and elaborate on candidate observational techniques and mission concepts for future geopotential mission, by • identifying challenges in all relevant application areas (not only solid Earth), and quantify their user requirements • deriving measurement requirements and mission concepts for a selected set of possible applications • assessing maturity and development prospects for potential technologies, measurement concepts and related mission ideas • propose preliminary system concepts for the selected scenarios • Achievements: • science requirements – solid Earth, hydrology, ocean, sea level, ice, geodesy • first assessment of possible mission scenarios for various science priorities • assessment of technological status and maturity for selected system scenarios (focus on gradiometry and inter-satellite laser tracking, DFAC)

5. Laser Doppler Interferometry Mission For Determination of the Earth’s Gravity Field (Alenia-Alcatel Space – I) • Objective: to elaborate a laser metrology concept and development plan for a possible system concept for a future geopotential mission • To define a suitable SSI mission to study atmospheric, oceanographic and • hydrological phenomena and Earth interior processes, and to derive the • characteristics and performances of its Laser metrology system, • To establish an appropriate design for the SSI laser metrology system, • To define an R&D programme leading to the realisation • of the laser metrology system of a SSI mission. Credits: Alenia-Alcatel Space • Achievements: • Subset of science requirements –> mission scenario • preliminary design concept for laser metrology system and satellite control established, including new ideas for beam stearing • discussion of R&D programme necessary to establish such system

6. Techniques and Space-borne Concepts for the Study of Earthquake Precursors and Analysis of Associated Atmospheric Effects (Noveltis – F) • Objective: to analyse existing ideas, techniques and the underlying mechanisms to prepare for a potential future spaceborne concept • To study possible physical mechanisms generating electromagnetic • fields and perturbations of the ionosphere plasma under the different boundary conditions that can explain these interactions. • plan strategy of ground-space experiments to check the observability and separability of the signatures/disturbances in the measurements • Assess feasibility of combined • Measurement concept (focus: • satellite system requirements) • outline possible global mission • Concept and scientific programme • and relate to ongoing activities in the field • Achievements: • passed PM1 summer 2006

7. Combination of Spaceborne, Airborne and In-situ Gravity Measurements in Support of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Mapping ( DNSC– DK) • Objective: to analyse and elaborate the role of geoid in sea-ice thickness processing, and in physical interpretation of the results • how best to combine geoid and MSS and in-situ data for the sea-ice thickness data processing and derivation of Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) • whether certain combinations of data help in physical explanation (dynamic topography, tides and other phenomena) of the differences between the local mean-sea-surface and geoid • an optimal interpolation tool for MSS, based on knowledge of the time and space scales of variability in the sea surface field • Achievements ARCGICE: • http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMMNBAATME_LPcryosat_0.html • passed MTR summer 2006 Arctic Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) derived fromcombined use of ERS and ICESat data. (units cm).

8. Gravity Improvement of Continental Slope and Shelf Ocean Circulation Modelling (Noveltis – F) • Objective: to understand how new, high-density, accurate marine geoid heights from missions such as GOCE can be exploited in improvement of our knowledge of ocean circulation in the near-shore region • Review of available ocean models and suitable European shelf-break model domains, together with associated high density in-situ gravity data sets • Selection of model domains with optimal satellite altimeter orbit crossings • State of art coupled ocean general circulation model used in conjunction with an accurate regional geoid representation (at GOCE geoid scales) • Assimilation of altimeter data with/without high res. geoid to simulate benefits of GOCE data. Goal  Results will be used to quantify the benefit of high resolution and accurate GOCE geoid data for improving ocean circulation models, particularly in the continental shelf break and outer shelf regions. Achievements: PM1 held 2nd Quarter 2006

9. Monitoring and Modelling Individual Sources of Mass Distribution and Transport in the Earth System by Means of Satellites (ITT released) • Objective: Test in a closed loop the possible retrieval of sources of mass distribution and transport from different satellite mission concepts • Identify sources of mass distribution and transfer and identify ways of modelling these best for synthetic satellite data generation • Careful analysis of the sampling concept for a future mission to ensure correct space-time sampling avoiding or reducing the problems of today’s gravity field missions • Analyse the problem of separation of effects from the satellite data in conjunction with other (satellite) data and/or models, and indicate the feasibility of the proposed concept to do so • Achievements: • ITT released summer 2006 – Proposals expected end September 2006

10. Requirements and Concepts for Atmospheric Composition / Chemistry Missions (KNMI – NL) • Objective: to lay the foundation for a space mission observing the composition of Earth’s atmosphere for operational applications, by • identifying potential user communities and their applications, and quantify their user requirements • deriving mission requirements and mission concepts for individual applications • assessing potential contributions of existing and planned space missions and ground networks to the fulfilment of the mission requirements • considering combinations of applications, evaluating mission concepts and finding synergies. • Observational requirements established for • environmental themes – stratospheric O3, air quality, climate • applications – protocol monitoring, forecast, assessment • satellite and ground-based measurements

11. Requirements and Concepts for Atmospheric Composition / Chemistry Missions (KNMI – NL) Recommended mission concepts: A Climate protocol monitoring (lower troposphere) System: sun-synchronous LEO platform Instrumentation: UV-vis-SWIR spectrometer for O3, NO2, CH4, CO, aerosol B Ozone and climate in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere System: sun-synchronous LEO platform, formation flying with Metop to support tropospheric data products Instrumentation options: either mm-wave (MASTER derivative) or mid-IR (AMIPAS derivative) limb-sounder • C Air quality • System: either 1 GEO + 1 sun-synch. LEO or 3 LEO in inclined orbit • Instrumentation options: • 1) combined solar backscatter and thermal IR sounding • 2) solar backscatter only

12. Observation of Techniques and Mission Concepts for Monitoring of CO2 from Space (IPSL – F) • Background • This follows a previous GSP study on the Monitoring of the Kyoto protocol • It addresses the potential of active techniques to overcome the limitations of present systems • Results • Scientific requirements for spaceborne CO2 monitoring have been reviewed • Candidate technologies for active CO2 observations have been identified • Alternative mission and instruments concepts have been established • Mission performance estimates based on a new simulator have been made • The study led to a mission proposal (“A-SCOPE”) in response to the call for ideas for new Earth Explorer core missions 2005; the proposal has been selected for pre-phase A.

13. Scientific Analysis of Upper Tropospheric Limb-sounding Observations (IFAC/-I) Objectives • Development of a retrieval code for the ESA-developed airborne MARSCHALS instrument (mm-wave limb-sounder to demonstrate upper tropospheric limb-sounding in the presence of clouds) • Theoretical error analysis • Analysis of campaign data obtained from flights of MARSCHALS on the stratospheric research aircraft GEOPHYSIKA • Conclusions on instrument performance, recommendations for space instrument Status and results • Development of algorithm and code completed • Theoretical error analysis completed • Long delays in instrument delivery and subsequently measurement campaigns (separate contracts) • Now first set of useful campaign data analysed. Presentation of results : 29 Sept.

14. Unfiltered radiance Flux Improvement of Angular Dependence Models (UoV – E) Objectives • To develop improved ADMs to retrieve instantaneous TOA radiative fluxes, specially for broad-band radiometers with a footprint of the order of 10 km and multi-view capability • To evaluate the expected error on the derived TOA fluxes introduced by the statistical nature of ADMs and 3-D radiative effects. Background • The ADM is the key parameter that allows inversion from measured radiances to fluxes, through the relationship: • ADMs present a complex dependence on geometrical conditions and observed scene characteristics. Thus, ADMs have to be considered as functions of multiple variables, generally: • Scene (surface): spectral signature, BRDF, roughness (mainly for ocean)… • Scene (atmosphere): thermodynamic profiles, composition, cloud cover, optical thickness… • Geometry: viewing zenith angle (VZA), solar zenith angle (SZA), relative azimuth angle (RAA).

15. Improvement of Angular Dependence Models (UoV – E) Conclusions • In the context of this GSP activity a new method for retrieving fluxes from radiances has been developed • Existing remote sensing data could not be exploited to generate generic ADMs. Extensive radiative transfer simulations were carried out and resulted in the generation of the ADMs. An extension of the study was necessary. • Results are very valuable for the retrieval of radiative fluxes from future broad-band radiometer (BBR) instruments and in particular the BBR on EarthCARE (6th Earth Explorer Core mission selected in November 2004)

16. Advances in Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Research by Development of Coupled Chemistry-Dynamics Data Assimilation Models (MSC-CDN) Objectives • To develop a data assimilation system that can assimilate meteorological and chemistry observations simultaneously in different modes (uncoupled, semi-coupled, fully coupled) • To assimilate satellite observations into this model for testing and demonstration • To quantify the benefits of simultaneous assimilation of meteorological and atmospheric composition measurements into coupled dynamical and chemical data assimilation models Background • Conventional assimilation of satellite observations: • Meteorological measurements are assimilated into NWP models for weather forecast, ignoring chemistry • Composition measurements are assimilated in chemical transport models (CTM), with the dynamics (temperature, wind, ...) forced by external dynamical models (e.g. meteorological analyses) • No intrinsic feedback of chemistry and dynamics in assimilation models • BUT Atmospheric chemistry depends strongly on temperature and temperature depends on chemistry – in particular stratosphere: • THEREFORE • Direct coupling of chemistry and dynamics in the assimilation models • should improve both chemical as well as dynamical analysis • BUT: It is expensive and very complicated

17. Advances in Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Research by Development of Coupled Chemistry-Dynamics Data Assimilation Models (MSC-CDN) Classical NWP Assimilation Classical Chemistry Assimilation NWP Model few free parameters (≈5) high resolution NWP analysis Chem. Transport Model many free parameters (≈50) moderate/low resolution Chemical analysis Ignoring ΔChemistry and radiation-chem feedback Errors in NWP analysis can have very big impact on chemistry results Dynamical Observations Chemical Model Composition Observations NWP Analysis New Approach: Coupled dyn & chem Assimilation Coupled Dynamical-Chemical Model many free parameters, high resolution NWP & chemical analysis Consistent dynamics and chemistry Dynamical Observations Composition Observations • Conclusions • Within this study, BIRA (BE) chemistry has been integrated into MSC (CDN) very complex NWP assimilation model. Several modes of uncoupled, semi-coupled and fully coupled dyn&chem assimilation now available and successfully tested • Presently, assimilation of dyn&chem observations ongoing (incl. MIPAS) • Spin-offs: • CDN & BE added significant own resources to this activity  high priority research activity for CDN and BE • This CDN-BE cooperation has led to a Government-level cooperation agreement between Canada and Belgium for dynamics and chemistry assimilation research beyond the scope of this study

18. Exploiting the longer wavelength data for the improvement of surface process modelling 2 parallel studies (ISSIA-I , LMU – D) • Objective:to assess the improvements in SVAT/Hydrology modelling integrating information from longer wavelength SAR images, by • developing and validating retrieval algorithms based on long-wavelength SAR for critical surface parameters (soil moisture, vegetation, type of land cover) • integrating information derived from long-wavelength SAR into surface process models (SVAT/Hydrology) • quantifying the improvements of surface process models through the inclusion of SAR information • formulating recommendations to the Agency concerning optimal SAR mission configuration to support SVAT/Hydological modelling community • Achievements • PM1 in June 2006 – Survey completed and suitable datasets including ESA AgriSAR airborne campaign dataset identified. • Roadmap for integration of SAR information into surface process models established

19. Exploiting the longer wavelength data for the improvement of surface process modelling 2 parallel studies (ISSIA-I , LMU – D) Study concept illustration: integration of SAR information into surface process models e.g. soil moisture

20. Assessing SAR calibration requirements using geophysical retrieval algorithms (ITT to be released) • Objective: to bridge gap between user community and technical SAR system specification though geophysical retrieval simulation, by • identifying key algorithms used in SAR image analysis for land and sea applications • simulating the impact of SAR system parameters on the application using geophysical retrieval algorithms • identifying critical SAR mission parameters • formulating general guidelines and frameworks for determining SAR system parameter choices to support application development • Achievements • ITT to be issued in Sept 2006

21. Assessing SAR calibration requirements using geophysical retrieval algorithms (ITT to be released) Study concept illustration: dependence of information content on SAR system parameters illustrated for sea ice Noise Equivalent Sigma Naught (technical parameter): effect of degradation on sea ice to water contrast in SAR image Better Worse ENVISAT ~ -22dB Simulation -10 dB Simulation 0 dB Ice Water

22. Study of Techniques and Sensors for Observation of Extreme Weather Events (ASPI-F) Objective: The objective of this study is to develop satellite-based sensor concepts for providing accurate observations of extreme weather events (EWE) such as hurricanes and typhoons. Only microwave (MW) remote sensing techniques are considered in this study as they are more amenable to provide observations under difficult weather conditions such as presence of thick cloud covers. • Observational requirements established for improving: • Nowcasting (0 to 3 hrs), • Very short-range forecasting (3 to 12 hrs) • Short range forecasting (12 to 24 or 48 hrs) • Satellite sensors potentially useful for observations: • Doppler wind radar for 3-D wind profile • MW radiometer – scatterometer combination for 3-D imaging of EWE • Radar altimeter for extreme low surface pressure measurement over ocean Status: Completion end 2006

23. Influence of Solar Activity Cycles on Earth’s Climate (DNSC-DK) • Objective: • Quantify, as completely as possible, the Sun-induced climate oscillations on Earth, affecting its atmospheric circulations, air and sea temperature, global water and energy circulation, radiation balance including effects of clouds, global vegetation patterns, etc.; • Resolve, as far as possible, the causes and effects of the observed variability in the physics of the Earth system, attempting to identify key primary parameters governing the Sun-induced oscillations; • Elaborate hypotheses on the mechanisms of Sun-Earth connection, gathering as much evidence as possible; • Attempt to discuss quantitatively through extrapolation of the result obtained in this study, how much of the recently observed global warming can be attributed to the Sun’s increasing activity in contrast to the part possibly caused by anthropogenic activities. Status: Completion end 2006

24. Feasibility Study of Imaging the Antarctic Ice using a Spaceborne P-band radar (VEXCEL - UK) • Background: • This is related to several proposals submitted by the science community in response to ESA calls for Earth Explorer mission ideas • The missions had been found of high scientific interest but uncertainty in retrieving the internal structure of the ice sheet (i.e. ice layers and bed conditions) prevented the selection Objective:Demonstrate feasibility of satellite-based imaging of ice internal structure by means of a electromagnetic scattering and interaction model for Antarctic ice-sheet Status: Completion end 2006

25. 50 km Scientific Assessment of Space borne High Temperature Event (HTE) Observing Mission Concept (DLR – D) The political dimension of the high temperature event emission issue Peat fires in Indonesia, Borneo / Kalimantan: “If we can’t prevent fires in Indonesia, such international efforts (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) to limit the effects of climate change could be in vain.” “Nature”, Vol. 432 Issue No 7014, 11 November 2004 3D model of peat volume

26. 10 km Scientific Assessment of Space borne High Temperature Event (HTE) Observing Mission Concept (DLR – D) MODIS and BIRD data allow the retrieval of the Fire Radiative Power (FRP), a potential key parameter for fire emission assessment MODIS BIRD Forest fires nearly simultaneously detected by MODIS and BIRD over Portugal on 4 August 2003. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) given in Megawatt (MW) is colour-coded and projected on the NIR band 1 100 10000 MW MODIS data based: 35 hot clusters with a cumulative FRP of 12.000 MW BIRD data based: 99 hot clusters with a cumulativeFRP of 15.500 MW

27. Scientific Assessment of Space borne High Temperature Event (HTE) Observing Mission Concept (DLR – D) Conclusions on comparative MODIS / BIRD fire data analysis • The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of more than half of the hot clusters, which were detected by BIRD, is below the detection limit of MODIS, • MODIS, nevertheless, may only slightly underestimate the cumulative FRP in ecosystems where large fires take place, such as Siberian boreal forests, • Though MODIS is hardly suitable for early small fire detection, it is an adequate instrument for cumulative FRP estimation of large wildfires, and therefore: A reasonable strategy for the development of a prospective fully operational space-borne fire monitoring system is the combination of: • Wide-swath whisk-broom moderate-resolution spectro-radiometers, such as MODIS, in order to provide systematic global observations with a high observation frequency, with • High-spatial resolution push-broom imagers, like the main sensors of BIRD but possibly with a further improved spatial resolution of ~100-200 m, for detailed monitoring of the regions where fires have already been reported. Status: CCN-2 with the objective to develop a 2-step Fire Monitoring Product Information System recently started

28. Impact assessment of solar induced vegetation fluorescence observations from space for improving dynamic vegetation models - ITT Objectives: to analyse the usability of vegetation fluorescence observations in addition to other biophysical variables derived from optical and thermal infrared remote sensing for regional dynamic vegetation modelling. • This includes: • a detailed literature research on available dynamic vegetation models and the analysis of their suitability for the study needs, • the adaptation of the models for the ingestion of solar induced fluorescence and/or fluorescence products including other biophysical variables derived from optical/thermal remote sensing data, • the establishment of simulation scenarios including figures of merits and generation of appropriate data sets, and • the assessment of the impact by assimilating simulated synthetic data and analysing the results in detail. • Status: • ITT release

29. Soil Moisture SMOS Tb (40km) (LMEB) - 1 q t (40km) ,T , s eff veg t T , eff veg (8km) SMOS T* b (40km) (LMEB) AGGREGATION fCover dR fCover fCover (1km) (1km) (8km) (1km) (8km) km) SMOS Tb (8km) q = + f f T s o 1 sol Optimization (1km) (f , f ) (1km) (8km) 0 1 Synergy of passive Microwave and Optical/SAR Observations for Soil Moisture Estimates with Emphasis on Spatial Dis-aggregation Techniques – (INRA - F) Objectives • to analyse the synergy of different sensor systems for the retrieval of surface soil moisture fields • to develop processing schemes for making full use of complementarities with emphasis on spatial dis-aggregation. Status • Study on-going, kicked-off in May ’05, final presentation planned for May ’07 • Dis-aggregation technique based on fine-scale auxiliary data for normalising the distribution at SMOS scales. Analysis showed that in particular soil temperature as derived from thermal infrared data can be used as a tracer of the spatial variability of surface soil moisture fields. • Software coding on-going, followed be a detailed analysis.

30. Cycle 2003-’04 POLINSAR (Polari-metric Interferometry) The Voice (CWE -Collaborative Working Environment for the EO community) ESRIN: GSP completed projects Major outcome • New science community established (375!!) • Req’ts for new missions • Campaign and tools (POLSARPRO) • Co-leader of EC strategic technology roadmap for FP7 • Validation of GMES open partnership • New projects funded by EC, PECS …

31. Earth Explorer Mission Preparation General Studies Programme EOPA Earth Watch (GMES) Mission Preparation Technological Research Programme “Breeding” Preparation Implementation Pre-Phase 0 Phase 0/Phase A Phases B/C/D/E Conclusion • Benefits of GSP • has allowed new ideas to be picked up and studied at an early stage • has allowed immature proposals to be further developed • has allowed the user community to prepare for the submission of new mission proposals • has allowed timely development of new technologies Role of GSP