Air pollution and heavy haze have become China’s biggest environmental problem

1. Air quality real-time forecast of PM2.5 in Hangzhou metropolitan city with the WRF-CMAQ and WRF/Chem systems: model development and evaluation Shaocai Yu1, Pengfei Li1, Renchang Yan1, Liqiang Wang1, Si Wang1, Weiping Liu1, Yang Zhang2, David Wong3, Kiran Alapaty3, Jon Pleim3 and Rohit Mathur3 1 Research Center for Air Pollution and Health,College of Environmental and Natural Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, P.R. China. 2Air Quality Forecasting Lab, Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA 3Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division, NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711, USA

2. Introduction (Motivation) Air pollution and heavy haze have become China’s biggest environmental problem Tianjin Beijing Xian Taiyuan Hazy days in 2012: 103-225 day Chengdu Chongqing Nanjing 2012 Shanghai Nanchang Guangzhou Fuzhou Wenzhou Number of haze days in 2013 are the highest since 1960 Hangzhou

3. Introduction (background) Hangzhou metropolitan city • With 2,200 years history, Hangzhou is • one of the seven ancient cities in China • one of the most renowned and prosperous cities in China • due to its beautiful natural sceneries: West Lake • a registered population of 8.7 million • the rivers, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs account for 8 % of the city • Hazy days in 2014:154 days, major pollutant is PM2.5 • annul mean PM2.5 conc.: 64 mg m-3

6. Model Description (Configuration) Two-way Coupled WRF-CMAQ Modeling System (Interaction and Feedback) (Yu et al., 2014) Meteorological Model WRF modeling System: x=36, 12 km, 4km 29 layers Land-Surface: PX LSM PBL: ACM2 Cloud Physics: Morrison Cumulus: Kain-Fritsch, not for 4km Shortwave: RRTMg, or CAM Longwave: RRTMg, or CAM Chemical Transport Model CMAQ Modeling System: Photochemistry: CB05 59 organic and inorganic species, 156 chemical reactions Aerosol module: AE6 3 lognormal modes, organic and inorganic Emission: SMOKE In-line emission for biogenic species AQPREP Prepares virtual CMAQ compatible input met. files Coupler CMAQ-mixactivate: cloud drop, ice number conc. Direct forcing: Aerosol size, composition, conc.

7. Model Description (Configuration) 1。， WRF-CMAQ空气质量模式研究中国东部区域大气污染和雾霾演变规律及其动态预警预报 Online coupled WRF-Chem Modeling System (Interaction and feedback) (Wang et al., 2014) Meteorological Model WRF modeling System: x=36, 12 km, 4km 29 layers Land-Surface: NOAH PBL: YSU Cloud Physics: Morrison Cumulus: Grell 3D, not for 4km Shortwave: RRTMg, Longwave: RRTMg, Chemical Transport Model CHEM Modeling System: Photochemistry: CB05 59 organic and inorganic species, 156 chemical reactions Aerosol module: MADE/VBS 3 lognormal modes, organic and inorganic Emission: MEGAN In-line emission for biogenic species

8. Model Description (Configuration) • China WRF-CMAQ simulations and emissions • WPS runs: lateral boundary conditions are derived from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model data • Emissions over the eastern Asia: • Anthropogenic: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): HTAP V2 (0.10*0.10) • Biogenic VOC: Generated by MEGAN Model (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

9. Model Description (Configuration) • Emission inventory and processes • Anthropogenic emission • Emission Inventory Discription The HTAP_V2 dataset provided consists of 0.1degx0.1deg gridmaps (left bottom corner centered) of CO, SO2 NOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC. HTAP_V2 uses nationally reported emissions combined with regional scientific inventories in the format of sector-specific gridmaps with a joint effort from US-EPA, the MICS-Asia group, EMEP/TNO, the REAS and the EDGAR group to serve in the first place the scientific community for hemispheric transport of air pollution.

10. Model Description (Configuration) • Emission inventory and processes HTAP_V2 emission inventory • Scope: Global scale • Resolution: 0.1degx0.1deg

11. Model Description (Configuration) • Emission inventory and processes • Base Year: 2010 annual and monthly emission files • 8 Emission sectors:

12. Model domain 36km domain over eastern Asia 12km domain over eastern China 4km domain over Zhejiang (Hangzhou) region Hangzhou

14. Results (Preliminary) (second day) Model forecast results over the three domain (9/22/2015, 13:00 LT) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem 36km domain over eastern Asia

15. Results (Preliminary) Model forecast results over the three domains (9/22/2015, 13:00 LT) WRF-Chem WRF-CMAQ 12km domain over eastern China 4km domain over Zhejiang (Hangzhou) region

16. Results (Preliminary for PM2.5) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites in Hangzhou) and models WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem

17. Results (Preliminary for O3) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem

18. Results (Preliminary for SO2) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem

19. Results (Preliminary for NO2) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem

20. Results (Preliminary for CO) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains) WRF-CMAQ WRF-Chem

21. Results (Preliminary model performance summary (NMB (%)) Comparisons of hourly obs (means at 10 sites) and models (three domains)

22. Contacts: Brian K. Eder email: eder@hpcc.epa.gov www.arl.noaa.gov/ www.epa.gov/asmdnerl

23. Results (Emission inventory input to model) CO SO2 PSO4 NO2