11th Annual Library Leadership Institute Repositioning Libraries and Librarians for the Next Generation Taiwan, 10-14 Ma

1. 11th Annual Library Leadership Institute • Repositioning Libraries and Librarians for the Next Generation • Taiwan, 10-14 May 2013 • Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario Planning Process • 利用情境規劃過程發展技能 Howard Amos University Librarian University of Otago

2. Session outline • 10:50 – 11:20 Presentation • 11:20 – 11:40 Group Activity • 11:40 – 11:50 Refresher • 11:50 – 12:20 Group Activity • 12:20 – 12:30 Summary

3. Disclaimer

4. Deconstruction • What do we mean by Planning • What is Strategic Planning • What is Scenario Planning • How does skills development come into the picture • Why should we care

5. Why should we care • “What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012 • “Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/ • “unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah. • “Academiclibraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.” - • A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher education • ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee

6. What is Planning • “If you don't know where you are going,you'll end up someplace else.” • ― Yogi Berra • “Failing to plan is planning to fail” • ― Alan Lakein

7. What is Planning • Part of what management is: • organising • resourcing [staffing] • leading [control] • directing • planning • Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.) New York,NY:McGraw-Hill.

8. Planning • In organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the missions and resources to achieve those target. • Knowledge is the essential ingredient

9. Knowledge • Things we know we know • Things we know we don’t know • Things we don’t know we don’t know

10. What is Strategic Planning • Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes • Clearly define objectives • Means we can set priorities • Establish common goals • Demonstrate alignment

11. What is Strategic Planning • Assessment of the environment • Formulate a high level plan • Operational planning • - objectives and action items • Evaluations, review & refinement

12. So I’ve got a Strategic Plan We know where we are going BUT: What if the goal post move How do we prepare for the unexpected

13. How do we anticipate change • Move from reactive to proactive • Flexible decision-making tool • Relevant to who and what we are • “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” • Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass • “The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.” • - Chuck Palahniuk, Rant

14. What is Scenario Planning • Genesis from military strategic studies • Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable” • Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s • Pierre Wack • – long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell

15. What is Scenario Planning • Not about predicting the future • Provides a framework to: • focus on different possibilities • include uncertainties in planning • what we don’t know that we don’t know • Explore multiple plausible futures • Develop feasible strategic plans

16. How does it work • Use known drivers (trends) to develop different possible future states • Create a series of different futures • Refine to 3- 5 scenarios and expand • Knowledge exchange & responsiveness • Develop strategies and options

17. How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’ • Scoping • Trend Analysis • PESTLE • Create Scenarios • Generate Options • Review Options • Action Plan http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

18. Scenario Planning in action rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html

19. A lot of work – what are the benefits • Enhance the planning and forecasting process • Ties diverse information and future environments • Avoids single view and blind spots • Forces explicit assumptions • Highlights areas for further examination • Draws staff and management into the process • Develops the Library’s corporate culture

20. Skills Development • Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty • Embrace diversity - find coherence • Team dynamics • Builds wider planning capabilities

21. Putting it into play – a case study • Otago Library Operational Managers • introduction to scenario planning • workshop issues and options • timeline • Random teams from across the Library • Scenarios refined and developed by EMG

22. Putting it into play – high level scenarios • Budget cuts • Changing social imperatives • Development of digital humanities services • Development of distance courses • Disaster preparedness • Economic pressure from Government • Emphasis placed on post-graduates • Increasing professional services • Technology developments • Dominance of the large publishers

23. (E) (L)(P)(S) (T) (En) • Putting it into play – high level scenarios • Budget cuts • Changing social imperatives • Development of digital humanities services • Development of distance courses • Disaster preparedness • Economic pressure from Government • Emphasis placed on post-graduates • Increasing professional services • Technology developments • Dominance of the large publishers (En) (P)(E) (P)(En) (En) (T) (En)

24. Responding to the scenarios - the ground rules • Your number is your scenario and group to work with. • Groups are expected to meet at least twice before the next OMG meeting in November. • Meeting in late November (date tbc) – each group present for 20 min + Q&A with a 30 min conclusion with discussion on common themes and practical implications that can be drawn from the exercise. EMG members will not actively participate. However you can approach any EMG member for their perspective/input based on their experience as part of the Executive.

25. Putting it into play – the scenarios

26. Scenario 1 – Changing Landscape The University has issued a directive to focus on Teaching & Learning due to declining Research outputs. How we teach and what we teach becomes more influenced by government policy, seeking different outcomes at a national level. For example: • Iwi progressing through the Treaty of Waitangi settlement processes are gaining resources to participate more fully in the cultural and educational development of their people. • Government places emphasis on Science, Technology and Engineering training. • Government policy is to fund programmes that produce “employment ready” graduates. The Library is faced with changing cohorts and the need for new and different services. How does the Library respond and engage?

27. Scenario 2 – Delivering on Promises The University sees the implementation of a new library system as an opportunity to develop modern “connect anywhere” services in support of Learning & Teaching and Research. The University has approved funding for the implementation of a new library system on the basis that the Library has guaranteed improvements in professional support with a focus on moving away from place-based/just in case services. What does the Library need to do to deliver on these promises and how would we transition and build Library services that are embedded in Academic Divisions?

28. Scenario 3 – Slash & Burn University of Otago comes 4th in the current PBRF round and the institution receives a drastic cut in funding. Canterbury’s new marketing drive is very successful and the reduction in research income arrives at the same time as a significant fall in enrolments. The Library is required to provide minimal front of house services with all other activities self-mediated or outsourced. Some funding is transferred to Academic Divisions for them to allocate for Research and Learning & Teaching support. What does the new Library service model look like?

29. Scenario 4 – Under Cut In a bid to outpace Auckland as New Zealand’s major research university, Otago decides on a dramatic shift from under graduate to post graduate focus. As well as moving to a version of the Melbourne model, to maintain its “brand”, the university moves to significantly increase distance education courses across all Academic Divisions. How does the Library respond?

30. Scenario 5 – Dog Eat Dog The Government decides through a combination of amalgamation and disestablishment to recreate a single University of New Zealand. The Universities of Auckland and Otago are given two years to demonstrate which should be the Research arm of the University. How does the Library respond?

31. Putting it into play – the scenarios • Teams were asked active questions • Some of the Responses

32. The Library is faced with changing cohorts and the need for new and different services. How does the Library respond and engage? Scenario 1: Changing Landscape Helen Brett, Richard German, Natalie Poland & Melanie Remy University of Otago Library 23 November 2012

33. The New University Landscape

34. The New Library Landscape:Information, Data, and Learning Services (IDLS)

35. Common themes and implications • The untethered library • Just in time • Teaching on line and global • 24/7 • Embedded librarians • Economies from scale

36. How did it unfold • Team compositions • Timing • Teams were presented scenarios • Scenario construction can be varied but still valid • Multi scenario planning not possible • Value in reinforcing “the future is now” • Yet to be embedded in quality assessment

37. To Recap: Scenarios • Centre on construction of useable stories • each one a coherent whole • provoke thinking not substitute • Need to be • plausible based on assumptions • relevant to issues and challenges • specific decision-focused views • produce new perspectives

38. Group activity • Two parts • Brainstorm and produce trends • Begin developing a scenario

39. Group activity • Brainstorm and produce trends • P – political • E – economic • S – social • T – technological • L – legal • E - environmental

40. Group activity • Brainstorm and produce trends • Feedback

41. Characteristics of scenarios • They come in sets • - can be powerful to examine contrasts • Show possible futures • Contextual, plausible • A logical path • Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.

42. Group activity • Begin developing a scenario • Factors could be • Impact on the sector and your university • Direct impact on your library • What trends might lead to a positive • What could be a negative version

43. Group activity - an example • Trend: • Economic pressure combines with government demands for more highly skilled graduates • Impact on the sector and your university: • Growth of post-grad programmes • Direct impact on your library: • Need to grow skills to support research • What trends might lead to a positive: • Increase funding to library programmes

44. Summing Up • Create a series of different futures • Use known drivers (trends) to develop different possible future states • Refine to 3- 5 scenarios and expand • Knowledge exchange & responsiveness • Embed in strategic plan action points

45. The JISC…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’ • Scoping • Trend Analysis • PESTLE • Create Scenarios • Generate Options • Review Options • Action Plan http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

46. Resources • Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc., • The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010), • http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenariosusers-guide.pdf. • Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct) • ISSN: 0016-3287& 1873-6378 • Libraries of the Future • http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/ • JISC Infonet scenario planning info kit • http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/ • Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct) • ISSN 0040-1625 & 1873-5509 • Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select) • ISSN 0954-4127

47. Acknowledgements • Libraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/ • Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4 • http://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/StrategicPlanningBasics/tabid/459/Default.aspx • Dalziel, Murray, and Stephen C. Schoonover (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association. • http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html • http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/ • Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967).The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. , New York. NY: The Macmillan Company. • Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.). New York,NY:McGraw-Hill. • Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in 2020. http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-new-skills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/ • Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2 • Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.

48. Images • http://www.flickr.com/photos/quasimondo/376852204/sizes/z/in/photostream/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/silvery/2290201108/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/desmondwilder/5391002979/sizes/z/in/photostream/ • http://policy.nrcs.usda.gov/viewerFS.aspx?id=3005 Subpart A - Framework for Planning • http://blog.kana.com/service-experience-management/knowledge-management-the-next-five-years • http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnicho02/2637002496/ • http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html • http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xGZ_ig3bAbU/UP3QYtUz7sI/AAAAAAAABM4/EU0Sya9Sx3k/s1600/01a1-strategic-planning.jpg • http://3dinspired.com/publications/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times/ • http://sites.psu.edu/selvidesign/files/2011/12/scenario-planning-big.jpg

49. Images • http://www.edmc.am/wp-content/uploads/improving-workforce-development-eto-software3.jpg • http://www.illumine.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/108784913.jpg • http://www.flickr.com/photos/magarell/208683442/ • http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/future-ahead.jpg • http://occupiedwithlife.blogs.rice.edu/files/2013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-17-at-11.02.17-AM.png • http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h-byX9hMwrw/URrdua_WTCI/AAAAAAAAADk/uKKtLYIiyOs/s1600/playwright.jpg • https://ctools.umich.edu/osp-presentation-tool/viewPresentation.osp?id=0A1E1FE677059A48CF284489D696FB38 • http://static.nz.groupon-content.net/dealarc/img/slider/663/books-1.jpg • http://www.otago.ac.nz/prodcons/groups/public/@otagomarketingservices/documents/webcontent/otago038750.jpg • http://images.iop.org/objects/phw/news/16/8/6/causality.jpg