NWS Future Concept of Operations National HIC Meeting

1. NWS Future Concept of OperationsNational HIC Meeting July 10, 2006

2. Outline • Background • Team Process, Progress, and Timeline • Role of Hydrology • Discussion

3. CONOPS Documents • NOAA’s NWS FOCUS on the Future • CONOPS report (12/15/2005): www.weather.gov/com/digitalera/index.htm • If you haven’t read it, you should. • Follow-on team formed in February ’06 to prototype the CONOPS recommendation.

4. CONOPS: The Case for Change • To provide the best service possible, we must adapt. • We must be more efficient with our resources. • We must capitalize on future opportunities. • 4. We need to posture ourselves for budget uncertainties.

5. CONOPS Philosophy Principles Market 1. We will ensure weather sensitive decision makers have ready access to high value environmental information. Customers and Partners 2. We believe that proximity to our customers and partners is key to achieving and maintaining the quality of our information and services. 3. The credibility of the NWS is a primary asset that will be maintained at all costs. Information and Services 4. The degree of consistency and accuracy of our information corresponds to the value they provide. 5. We will provide information that includes estimates of uncertainty, and is widely recognized as credible and reliable. 6. Enable reliable access to information and services in formats which meet customer needs. 7. To the greatest extent that resources permit, we will measure the value of the services we provide in support of high-impact events. We acknowledge that not all aspects of the value of high impact services are amenable to objective measurement. Technology, Data, and Tools 8. We will ensure that all national centers and field offices have the tools and technology necessary to efficiently and effectively produce the digital environmental information repository (one stop shopping portal) 9. We will routinely verify and quality assure the digital environmental information we produce and make these verification data readily available to forecasters and managers to ensure resources are used most efficiently and effectively. The verification system should be tailored to include the information that lets us make resource decisions about services for high-impact events. 10. We will efficiently and fully leverage the investment in numerical forecast guidance and ensure that this guidance is used by field offices. 11. We will facilitate the rapid transfer of new science and quality assured technology into operations. 12. When designing systems, adaptability of technology is a criteria that is as important as initial cost People 13. We recognize the unique needs of the individual employee. 14. We concentrate the efforts of our people where their expertise and effort allows them to add value. 15. We will dedicate resources to leadership training and succession planning. Organizational Design 16. Operating units should be resourced according to mission requirements. 17. Maintain a distributed concept of services where local offices are responsible for making resource decisions. 18. Regardless of where the environmental information is produced, accountability resides with the part of the organization from which the information is delivered. 19. Operating units are clustered by partnership opportunities, climatology, and ecosystems. 20. National and regional service program leads should be located at operating units in areas where the program is active

6. CONOPS Future State: 2015 Market Expanded support to weather sensitive decision makers, including those in emergency management, public health, aerospace, aviation, and water resources. (1) Clearly explained and leveraged partnerships across the weather enterprise that benefit both parties (2) We partner with other NOAA elements in a one-NOAA context Customers (1) Local, regional, national and international decision makers, including other government agencies Partners Information Services (1) Ecosystem information (2) Probabilistic forecasts (3) Sensible weather forecasts and warnings (4) Environmental forecasts to aid in the protection of the nation’s natural resources (5) High resolution information for high impact events (1) Enhanced user decision support especially for high impact events (2) Provider of a wide spectrum of improved environmental information services designed for societal needs (3) Producer of seamless, high quality, digital information on demand Technology, Data, and Tools (1) Effective and adaptable use of emerging science and technology, including timely transition and quality assurance (2) Communications allows full transfer of information to wherever it is needed in the agency (3) Calibrated, reliable, and routinely verified national digital environmental information repository (4) An interface that allows the decision maker to quickly personalize information from a national digital environmental information repository People High quality of work life: (1) Our people’s efforts are concentrated where their expertise allows them to demonstrably add value (2) More flexible work schedules (3) Appropriate and targeted training (4) Effective leadership at all levels Identity (1) Our premier reason for being is to provide information to decision makers who take action to protect lives and property (2) We are the recognized source of unbiased, scientifically valid, quality assured environmental information (3) We are the primary source of weather information for the government.

7. Clustered Peer VisionAn Extension of the Ops Philosophy - focuses NWS resources on high-impact events - while providing routine services - in a highly collaborative process, - optimizing modern science and technology - composed of functionally staffed field offices - at current facilities (with modifications). An effective field structure for NOAA’s National Weather Service consisting of a highly trained workforce, which...

8. Key Operational Shifts From To Phenomenon Based Forecasts Product Based Services Coordination Technology Tied National Weather Service Reactive Evolution Static Resource Allocation Weather-centric Impact Based Forecasts Decision Support Information Collaboration Technology Enabled Full Partnering Weather Enterprise Proactive continuous Improvement Dynamic Resource Allocation Earth System Science

9. From To Running an Operation “My Forecast” “My Office” Consistency vs. Accuracy “My weather is harder than yours” “Only I can forecast for my area” Cranking out the work Quantity of work Trusted individual technology Leading Change “Our Forecast” “Our NWS” Consistency and Accuracy “I value your climate, too” “I trust you to make the best decisions for our cluster” Knowing where and when to add value Quality of work Shared, integrated technology Key Cultural Shifts

10. Clustered Peers Concept Basic Elements 1. National Centers 2. Mission-Staffed (Tailored) Peer Forecast Offices 3. Cluster Support Offices Note: All 122 forecast offices issue forecasts and warnings, QA data, maintain equipment, conduct outreach and science infusion

11. Team Progress Initiate OSIP Recommend Prototype Clusters May 1 Start Online Testing Recommend Cluster Criteria Initiate Team Activities Run Lab June 13 Provide Cluster Prototype Plan* Solicit Input September 11 August 14 May 2 February 28 March 30 August 1 May July June April August March February September 2006

12. Prototype Cluster CriteriaAs presented at the May 2 Board VTC • Primary Considerations: • Common Forecast Challenges • Physiographic Boundaries • Involvement by all 4 CONUS regions • End-state cluster configuration dependent on prototype findings • Current AWIPS Architecture Restriction • ~100,000 grid points • Other Considerations: • Partnership opportunities, Transportation, Economy, Population, Team work, Service Assistance

13. Additional Prototype Criteria In late May, the Team decided that: • Prototype cluster areas can approach 120,000 grid points • Prototype cluster areas must include at least 4 WFOs • Multi-regional participation within clusters is important • The clusters need to cover a diversity of forecast challenges: • Hurricane • Tornado • Marine • Flood • Winter weather • Fire Weather • Mountainous Terrain • Water Management

14. Recommended Prototype Clusters • “Pacific Northwest” • “Great Plains” • “Great Lakes” • “Southeast Coast”

15. Why Four Prototype Clusters? • Address all high impact forecast challenges • Involve all CONUS Regions • Provide opportunities for NOAA partnerships • Engage a broad spectrum of field offices in refining the Clustered Peer approach • Provide opportunity to accelerate NWS culture change • Lay the foundation for nationwide implementation

16. Recommended Prototype Cluster A “Pacific Northwest” Seattle, Spokane, Portland, Pendleton • Forecast Challenges • Fire weather • Mountainous Terrain • Flood/Water Management • Strong Partnerships • NOAA (NOS, NORR, PMEL, MAO, OAR) • Universities (UW, OSU) • Common RFC • Cluster Support (OPC, HPC, SPC, CPC, AWC, NWRFC, CWSU) • Marine • Winter Weather Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance between Coastal and Inland WFOs

17. Recommended Prototype Cluster B “Southern Plains” Amarillo, Lubbock, Norman, Tulsa, Wichita, Dodge City • Forecast Challenges • Severe Weather • Flash Flood • Drought • Partnerships • NOAA (NSSL) • University (OU) • Multiple Regions • Multiple RFCs • Cluster Support (SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, ABRFC, WGRFC, SWPL) Important Goal: Evaluate Frequent Occurrence of High Impact Weather

18. Recommended Prototype Cluster C “Great Lakes” Detroit, Cleveland, N. Indiana, Chicago, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Gaylord, Grand Rapids • Common Ecosystem • Forecast Challenges • Marine • Winter Weather • Strong Partnerships • NOAA (GLERL, NOS) • Lake Carriers Association • Universities (UM, UW) • Multiple Regions • Multiple RFCs • Cluster Support (OPC, SPC, HPC, CPC, AWC, NCRFC, OHRFC, CWSUs) • Flood • Severe Weather Important Goal: Evaluate Service Benefits to Single Ecosystem

19. Recommended Prototype Cluster D “Southeast Coast” Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Charleston, Columbia, Wilmington, Greer, Atlanta • Forecast Challenges • Hurricane • Fire Weather • Water Management • Strong Partnerships • NOAA (CSC, NCDC, NOS, NMFS) • University (FSU, GTU) • Multiple Regions • Common RFC • Cluster Support (HPC, OPC, AWC, TPC, CPC, SPC, CWSUs, SERFC, SERCC) • Flood • Severe Weather Important Goal: Evaluate Service Assistance in High-Impact Tropical Environment

20. Key Elements of Prototype Testing • Expanded domain for GFE • Collaboration tools • Resource allocation tools • Assessment criteria and metrics • A plan!

21. Next Steps • Laboratory (CRH – GSD) • Laboratory preparations – June-July • Conduct during August – October • Forecaster involvement September-October • Report completed early November 2007 • Prototype Plan • Next CONOPS deliverable – September 2006 (?) • Deployment and roll-out details • Basis for Impact and Implementation discussions • Prototype Activity • Begins January-March 2007

22. Concurrent Activities • OSIP • IT requirements • Assessment and evaluation • Coordination w/ other teams

23. CONOPS: Role of Hydrology • Hydrologic service is a core function of the NWS • CONOPS will allow WFOs to focus additional resources on hydrologic service during high impact events • CONOPS will allow WFOs an opportunity to expand hydrologic service outreach and hydrologic training (internal and external) • Role of RFCs (cluster support office) needs to be developed during prototype testing • RFCs heavily engaged in all 4 prototypes • CONOPS may provide an opportunity to implement the RFC Service Coordination Hydrologist position

24. Discussion… • Questions? • Input from HICs, others? • Conduits for information and experience gained during prototypes?