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Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina “Australian power - where to by 2050?” Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEA

Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina “Australian power - where to by 2050?” Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEAust HonFAIE 8 September 2012.

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Engineers Australia Northern Rivers Group Ballina “Australian power - where to by 2050?” Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEA

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  1. Engineers Australia Northern Rivers GroupBallina “Australian power - where to by 2050?”Martin Thomas AM FTSE HonFIEAust HonFAIE8 September 2012 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  2. Infrastructure on the cliff edgeAustralia is facing a potential monumental infrastructure disaster as the politicians dither with long-term carbon questions and undertake speculative research on coal technologies.Unless someone starts actually making hard decisions now, fasten your safety belts for a very large rise in power prices in the eastern states, which will flow into inflation and interest rates. COMMENTARY Robert Gottliebsen15 Jul 2009 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"

  3. G8 leaders tighten carbon targets

    Leaders of the G8 have agreed to a goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with developed countries achieving an 80% reduction by then.   Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  4. Coal Oil and gas Nuclear Geothermal Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables Distributed energy and energy storage Australian candidate generation technologies to 2050 Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  5. Coal the bad news Mines can sterilise huge arable land areas Substantial carbon and other emissions (viz particulates, NOx and SOx) CCS technically promising but costly, huge efficiency penalty, and yet to be proven at scale Heavy carbon footprint without CCS Significant ash disposal & retention problems Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  6. Coal the good news Black and brown resources vast and easily won LCOE (Black coal, no CCS) ~ 100-110$/MWh Technologies (mining, materials handling, preparation, combustion, gas cleanup, ash disposal) proven strong Australian skills Good for base load generation - capacity factors typically >90% Generation technology conventional well proven Huge RD&D program promises further gains (IGCC, oxy-firing, CCS, etc) Strong Australian engineering capability Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  7. Coal power station Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  8. Coal mines for power Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  9. Oil, natural gas, shale gas and coal seam gas - the bad news High and rising fuel costs (both oil and gas) – as Oz LNG rises to world parity Noisy High maintenance costs Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  10. Oil, natural gas, shale gas and coal seam gas - the good news Diesel and gas turbine plant - well proven, reliable, numerous suppliers, good service back up Diesel specific capex ~ 250-750$/kW OC gas turbine capex ~ 900-1200$/kW LCOE (CCGT, no CCS) ~ 80-110$/MWh Short construction times Carbon footprint < coal Fast load following Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  11. Nuclear the bad news Technology still very costly ~ 5,000-6,000$/kW Australian regulatory environment inadequate Shortage of suitably qualified Australian engineers and scientists Significant water demand for cooling (but can use dry cooling – ie fan cooled radiators) Risks with older reactors (eg TMI 1979, Chernobyl 1986, and Fukushima 2011) Australian public has valid concerns on: Safety of spent fuel disposal, Weapons proliferation, and NIMBY siting issues Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  12. Nuclear the good news (1) Vast Australian uranium resources (~40% world’s low cost supplies and growing) ANSTO Lucas Heights research reactor and nuclear medicine experience Technologies (mining, enrichment, reactors, spent fuel management and permanent disposal) internationally proven Australia strong in hard rock mining and minerals processing Australia geologically stable with vast regions of minimal population for safe waste disposal Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  13. Nuclear the good news (2) Nuclear well suited to base load generation - capacity factors typically >90% - used for ~14% of world’s electricity generation LCOE ~ 95-105$/MWh - includes waste disposal and decommissioning costs Generation III and III+ reactors improved, safer Generation IV reactors inherently safe - 60 times energy recovery from uranium fuel Worldwide RD&D program promises further gains Strong Australian engineering capability Small specific power footprint Strong safety record cf alternatives Emerging potential for thorium fuel Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  14. CruasMeysse Nuclear Power Station, Montelimar, France – 4 X 900MW Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  15. Nuclear power – Generation III+ Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  16. Nuclear fuel pellet energy equivalent to:1t coal = 3bbls oil = 481m3 natural gas Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  17. Nuclear – spent fuel repository Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  18. Nuclear – is fusion the future?ITER - Cadarache, France Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  19. Geothermal the bad news Hot fractured rock (HFR) technology not yet fully proven Technology still very costly ~ 6,000-8,000$/kW - and yet to be commercialised Geothermal resources generally remote from grid and load centres, requiring substantial new transmission lines and hence transmission losses Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  20. Geothermal the good news Huge resource at 200-270°C (>1,000 years for Australia) at 3-5km depth in Central Australia Drilling technology well proven in oil industry Generation technology (conversion of heat to electricity) well proven LCOE ~ 100-120$/MWh at plant site Negligible carbon or other emissions Very low water demand Good use of real estate Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  21. Geothermal technologies Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  22. Hydrothe bad news High to very high capex depending on scheme ~ 3,000-10,000$/kW Can pose significant environmental issues Dependent on reliable rainfall Limited remaining Australian resource Safety can be questionable (Siberia 2009 – 76 dead - huge losses) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  23. Hydrothe good news Primary energy free Easy load following and meeting system peaks Can provide pumped storage for load levelling Can combine with irrigation and flood control Environmental and recreational benefits good Micro-hydro well suited to developing countries Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  24. Hydro power Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  25. Solar photovoltaics (PV)the bad news Technology still costly ~ 5,000-6,500$/kWp LCOE high but falling ~ 210-135$/MWh Capacity factor limited ~ 15-20% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry) Power conditioning expensive and complex Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains) Materials (silicon, lead, etc) difficult to dispose of sustainably Poor use of real estate (unless rooftop) – although under some ‘sheep may safely graze’ Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  26. Solar photovoltaics (PV)the good news Free primary energy – the sun Technology cost falling with advancing RD&D – target ~ 1,000-2,000$/kWp “Feed-in” tariffs helpful, but declining Emerging technologies include thin film, SLIVER, concentrating PV, tracking PV Power conditioning and storage costs falling, lives extending, efficiencies improving (world record 43%!), materials increasingly benign Negligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demand Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  27. Photovoltaics (PV)technology options Flat plate crystalline Si modules (local and imported cells) Conventional – efficiency 12-18%, reliable, expensive Thin film Si modules (UNSW Green cells) State of the art – very expensive, efficiencies to 25% SLIVER cells (ANU Blakers cells) State of the art – expensive, efficiencies >19% quoted Concentrating PV (Solar Systems cells) 400+ suns concentration – well suited to tracking, hence higher capacity factors (~25%) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  28. PV application Wilpena Pound Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  29. PV ANU SLIVER technology Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  30. Solar thermal (STG)the bad news Technology still costly ~ 4,500-6,000$kWp) Capacity factor limited ~ 20-25% so unsuited to base load demand (ie industry) without heat or gas storage Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (diesel, hydro or mains) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  31. Solar thermal (STG)the good news Free primary energy – the sun Technology costs falling with advancing RD&D target ~ 1,500-2,500$kWp SolarGas technology (CSIRO) promises storage and improved capacity factors Compact Linear Fresnel Reflectors show promise for power station supplement Materials well understood – disposal easy Negligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demand Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  32. Solar thermal (STG)CSIRO Newcastle ~ 1MWe module Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  33. Windthe bad news Technology still costly ~ 2,000- 4,000$/kWp Capacity factor limited ~ 15-40% Generation unrelated to system demand Wind farms often remote from grid Power conditioning expensive and complex Energy storage expensive, alternatively needs standby (pumped hydro, thermal spinning reserve or mains) Not suited to base loads (ie industry) Regarded by many as noisy and intrusive Poor use of real estate – prime agricultural sites - cows and sheep may safely graze, but not all birds! Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  34. Windthe good news Free primary energy – wind > 6m/s Technology cost falling with advanced RD&D Manufacturers established – target ($k2-4/kWp) Feed-in tariffs increasingly accepted Emerging technologies include larger units, improved blades and composite materials give lower economic wind harvesting speeds Power conditioning and energy storage costs falling, lives extending, unit sizes growing Negligible carbon or other emissions Zero water demand Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  35. Wind farms Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  36. Distributed generationthe good news Can be installed close to load (eg rooftop or basement) Uses locally available energy resources (sun, wind, biogas, biomass, micro hydro) Offers local natural gas cogeneration/trigeneration (ie power, heating and cooling) at high efficiency Minimises or avoids use of T&D assets and associated losses Least cost option for remote area power supplies Very strong Australian capability! Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  37. Distributed generationthe bad news Specific energy costs ($/MWh) can be high Complex (but not impossible) to connect to main grid system Raises ownership issues, although may attract new ownership structures Can create local distribution system congestion, especially rooftop PV Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  38. Distributed generationcommon technologies Solar PV rooftop systems Small wind turbines Gas fired cogeneration/trigeneration Micro hydro (developing countries) Biogas (developing countries) Etc, etc Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  39. Distributed generationcommon technologies Pictures add Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  40. Distributed generationcommon technologies Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  41. Energy storage Pumped storage already widely deployed Future will be flow batteries and PHEVs Provides for economic matching of supply and demand through peak shaving and valley filling Critical for support of low capacity factor technologies (eg solar and wind) Adds to system energy security Costs falling through focussed RD&D Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  42. 500MWh energy storage system in USA Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  43. Let me conclude with some comparisons Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  44. Relative levelised costs ($/MWh) (Source: EPRI for UMPNER 2006) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  45. Nuclear Coal Gas Solar PV Wind <1 (+ mine + repository) <1 (+ mine + ash dam + CCS) <1 (+ gas field + pipeline + CCS) 400 (15-20% capacity factor) 600 (20-40% capacity factor) Real estate km²/GWa(excluding transmission) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  46. Fatality rates(Source UMPNER report - 2006) Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
  47. By 2020 (60GW) Coal 65% Gas 23% Nuclear 0% Geothermal 2% Hydro 4% Wind 4% Solar <2% By 2050 (100GW) Coal 30% Gas 25% Nuclear 20% Geothermal 10% Hydro 3% Wind 7% Solar 5% My generation portfolio guesses for Australia? At 2010 (54GW) Coal 76% Gas 16% Nuclear0% Geothermal 0% Hydro 5% Wind 2% Solar <1% Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"

  48. What’s yours?

    Thank-you for your kind attention! Engineers Australia - Northern Rivers Group - Ballina - 8 Sep 12 "Australian power - where to by 2050?"
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